Time Warner

• The market in one sentence: Buying on Dips Pays Most in Five Years as Stocks Rebound (BBG)
• Europe subdued, Russia shares tumble on new sanctions (Reuters)
• Chinese Data Don’t Add Up (WSJ)
• Argentine Default Drama Nears Critical Stage (WSJ)
• Global Pressure Mounts on Israel to End Gaza Fighting (BBG)
• Ukraine troops advance as experts renew attempt to reach crash site (Reuters)
• Prospects Brighten for Republicans to Reclaim a Senate Majority (WSJ)
• Europe’s banking union faces legal challenge in Germany (FT)
• Investors Bet on China's Large Property Developers (WSJ)
• Hague court orders Russia to pay over $50 billion in Yukos case (Reuters)

There has been little in term of tier 1 data releases to drive the price action so far in the overnight session which means participants focused on the upcoming US related risk events including the Fed, Q2 GDP and July Payrolls. This, combined with WSJ article by Fed’s Fisher who opined that the FOMC should consider tapering the reinvestment of maturing securities and begin shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet (note that Fisher’s opinion piece is written based on a speech he gave on July 16th) meant that USTs came under pressure overnight in Asia and in Europe this morning. There has been little notable equity futures action (for now: the USDJPY algo team gave it a good ramp attempt just before Europe open, and will repeat just around the US open despite Standard Chartered major cut to its USDJPY forecast from 110 to 106 overnight), although we expect that to change since today is the day when Tuesday frontrunning takes place with full force. We expect equities to completely ignore the ongoing deterioration in Ukraine and the imminent release of EU's own sanctions against Russia, as well as what is now shaping up as an Argentina default on July 30.

• EU to weigh extensive sanctions on Russia (FT)
• U.S. lifts flight ban to Israel (Reuters)
• Russia says will cooperate with MH17 probe led by Netherlands (Reuters)
• Norway faces ‘concrete and credible’ terrorist threat (FT)
• Don’t Tell Anybody About This Story on HFT Power Jump Trading (BBG)
• But... but... PMI: Unilever Sales Growth Misses Estimates on Asian Slowdown (BBG)
• World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Reviews $8 Billion Russian Stake (BBG)
• Qualcomm latest US tech company to reverse in China (FT)
• Hamptons Home Sales Rise as Buyers Find More Inventory (BBG)

• Here come the gates which we predicted in 2010: SEC Is Set to Approve Money-Fund Rules (WSJ)
• Dick's cuts 400 jobs as golf now less popular (MW)
• Kerry arrives in Israel, pushes for peace (Reuters)
• Pay Penalty Haunts Recession Grads as U.S. Economy Mends (BBG)
• Appeals Courts Issue Conflicting Rulings on Health-Law Subsidies (WSJ)
• Rebel Stronghold Donetsk Holds Breath as Shellfire Mounts (BBG)
• Business executive wins Georgia Republican runoff in U.S. Senate race (Reuters)
• Five held in China food scandal probe, including head of Shanghai Husi Food (Reuters)
• Jobs Hold Sway Over Yellen-Carney as Central Banks Splinter (BBG)

• EU Works to Punish Russia as MH17 Bodies Leave Rebel Area (BBG)
• Bodies From Malaysia Airlines Flight Begin Long Trip to Netherlands (WSJ)
• Israel pounds Gaza as Kerry arrives (Reuters)
• U.S. judge dismisses Republican lawsuit over Obamacare subsidy for Congress (Reuters)
• Israel Soldier Missing Amid Assault on Hamas in Gaza (WSJ)
• Detroit Retirees Vote in Favor of Pension Cuts (WSJ)
• Russia Axes 1st Bond Sale in 3 Months as Ukraine Drives Up Yield  (BBG)
• Wall Street Cut From Guest List for Jackson Hole Fed Meeting (BBG)
• Credit Suisse to Exit Commodities, Posts Big Quarter Loss (BBG)
• Draghi Cedes Euro Control to Yellen on Fed Rate Wagers (BBG)

• Ukraine Says Malaysian Airliner Shot Down Near Russian Border (BBG)
• Downing of airliner seen as pivotal moment in Ukraine crisis (Reuters)
• Malaysian Air Flight Took Route Avoided by Qantas, Asiana (BBG)
• Russian-Made Missile Hit Malaysia Jet, U.S. Officials Say (BBG)
• Netanyahu Orders Military to Ready Wider Gaza Incursion (BBG)
• Silvio Berlusconi Underage Sex Conviction Overturned (WSJ)
• But... but... "economic patriotism" - AbbVie to Buy Shire for $54.8 Billion as Drug Deals Surge (BBG)
• SEC targets 10 firms in high frequency trading probe - SEC document (Reuters)
• Art bubble pop: Sotheby's to Lay Off 'Modest' Number of Employees (WSJ)
• Moar Abenomics: Hermes Sales Trail Estimates as Japanese Revenue Declines (BBG)

• Bubble Paranoia Setting in as S&P 500 Surge Stirs Angst (BBG)
• But how will math PhDs determine "fair value" - Wall Street Techs Take Secrets to Next Job at Their Peril (BBG)
• U.S., EU Escalate Russia Sanctions as Putin Holds Firm (Bloomberg)
• Australia Becomes First Developed Nation to Repeal Carbon Tax (WSJ)
• Gaza humanitarian truce goes into force, hours after tunnel clash (Reuters)
• Barclays, Deutsche Bank Said to Face U.S. Senate Hearing (BBG)
• ECB Asset Buying Far Off and May Not Come, Hansson Says (BBG)
• Time Warner win would make Murdoch U.S. media king (Reuters)
• Costly Vertex Drug Is Denied, and Medicaid Patients Sue (WSJ)
• China Rallying for All Wrong Reasons to Top-Rated Analyst (BBG)
• GM recalls some cars with problematic switches; judges others safe (Reuters)

Slowly but surely, all those cans that many hoped were kicked indefinitely into the future, are coming back home to roost. The biggest impact on global risk overnight have been undoubtedly the expanded Russian sanctions announced by Obama yesterday, which have sent the Russian Micex index reeling to six week lows (as it does initially after every sanction announcement, only for the BTFDers to appear promptly thereafter), with the biggest hits saved for the named companies such as Rosneft -5.6%, Novatek -5.1%, and others Alrosa -5.7%, VTB Bank -4.3%, Sberbank -3.4% and so on. Then promptly risk off mood spilled over into broader Europe and at last check the Stoxx600 was down 0.8%, with Bund futures soaring to record highs especially following news (from the Ukraine side) that a Russian warplane attacked a Ukrainian fighter jet. Not helping matters is the end of the dead cat bounce in Portugal where after soaring by 20% yesterday on hopes of a fresh capital infusion, Espirito Santo has once again crashed, dropping as much as 11%, driven lower following downgrades by both S&P and Moodys, as well as the realization that someone was pulling everyone's legs with the rumor of an equity stake sale.

The media giant 21st Century Fox, the empire run by Rupert Murdoch, made an $80 billion takeover bid (around $86.00) in recent weeks for Time Warner Inc. but was rebuffed, people briefed on the matter said on Wednesday. As WSJ reports, The offer was first made orally in June and then with a formal letter in July. Time Warner rejected the offer curtly, after Chief Executive Jeff Bewkes took the proposal to the board. The deal - which valued Time Warner at 12.6x LTM EBITDA - was notably above even recent record high LBO multiples (and would be financed by none other than Goldman). Of course, this deal - should it ever be consummated (as the stock price suggests) would give Murdoch control of both the left and the right propoganda with CNN and Fox.

• Microsoft to announce biggest round of job cuts in 5 years (BBG)
• Palestinian rocket fire persists, Israel warns truce at risk (Reuters)
• China tells U.S. to stay out of South China Seas dispute (Reuters)
• Merkel Resists Sundering U.S. Ties Over Spying Affair (BBG)
• BES slide, tumbling German sentiment hit markets (Reuters)
• Top 1 Percent Is Even Richer Than Surveys Say, ECB Paper Finds (BBG)
• Puerto Rico Utility May Default on January Interest Payment (BBG)
• Can't Get a Job From an Algorithm, or So It Seems as Hot Resumes Go Nowhere Fast (BBG)
• Bank of China-CCTV drama may reveal power struggle in Beijing (SCMP)

• Espirito Santo Financial Suspends Shares, Bonds on ESI Exposure (BBG)
• Europe Stocks Drop for Fifth Day as Espirito Santo Sinks (BBG)
• Espirito Santo Creditors Doubt Containment on Missed Payment (BBG)
• French Stocks Seen Extending Losses on Economy Concern (BBG)
• Stocks Slide With Portugal Bonds as Yen Gains; Oil Drops (BBG)
• U.S. Probes Hacking of Government Computers at Personnel Agency (WSJ)... finds terabytes of porn 
• It's Congress' fault: Obama rejects criticism over border crisis (Reuters)
• Israel Mobilizes 20,000 Troops for Possible Gaza Invasion (BBG)
• Chinese hackers pursue key data on U.S. workers (NYT)
• Donetsk Primed for Siege as Ukraine Army Hems In Rebels (BBG)

• Xi Says China Conflict With U.S. Would Be Disaster (BBG)
• Short selling drops to lowest level since Lehman (FT)
• Scoping the new subprime as watchdogs cry 'bubble' (Reuters)
• Carlos Slim to break up América Móvil empire (FT)
• Jury Acquits Rengan Rajaratnam in Insider-Trading Case (WSJ)
• Hamas rockets land deep in Israel as it bombards Gaza Strip (Reuters)
• Hong Kong Buyers Queue for New Homes After Prices Plunge (BBG)
• Rebel Stronghold in Ukraine Braces for Its Showdown (WSJ)
• Tiny Houses Big With U.S. Owners Seeking Economic Freedom (BBG)
• Chinese Cash-Bearing Buyers Drive U.S. Foreign Sales Jump (BBG)

The revolution is already in motion.  It is a peaceful and intellectual revolution - not one of violence or force, and that is why it will succeed.

• Ceasefire over, Ukraine forces attack rebel positions (Reuters)
• No Good Iraq Options for Obama as Russia, Iran Jump In (BBG)
• Japan’s Cabinet Agrees to Allow Military to Help Defend Allies (BBG)
• Obama says to reform immigration on his own, bypassing Congress (Reuters)
• South Stream Pipeline Project in Bulgaria Is Delayed (NYT)
• Foreign Banks Still in the Dark About Missing Metals in China (WSJ)
• Quelle indignity: several bankers at French bank BNP Paribas will face demotions and cuts to their pay and bonuses (FT)
• Symantec Warns of Hacker Threat Against Energy Companies (BBG)
• Shrinking Office Spaces Slow Recovery (WSJ)
• Rand Paul Slams ‘Fat Cats’ With Hedge Fund in Top Donors (BBG)

• Minorities Seen Driving U.S. Household Growth (Reuters)
• GM prepares to recall some Cruze sedans with Takata air bags (Reuters)
• PBOC Halts Repos as China Money Rate Climbs to Seven-Week High (BBG)
• Ukraine Optimism Wavers on Peace as Cease-Fire Winds Down (BBG)
• Economic Rebound Seen Undercut by Weak Pay as Vote Winner (BBG)
• Cracks Open in Dark Pool Defense With Barclays Lawsuit (BBG)
• The Survivor: How Eric Holder outlasted his (many) critics (Politico)
• IBM, Lenovo Tackle Security Worries on Server Deal (WSJ)
• Militants take Iraqi gas field town, president calls parliament session (Reuters)
• Carney Surprises Confounding Markets as BOE Manages Guidance (BBG)