• Tim Knight from...
    02/06/2016 - 00:25
    What we must remember is this: we are in a bear market, and the risk of a countertrend rally is present, but confined. The opportunity on the downside movement dwarfs the risk of a push higher, as...
  • Phoenix Capital...
    02/06/2016 - 10:15
    2008 was caused by derivatives based on consumer-focused assets (houses). The next crisis will be driven by derivatives on government-focused assets (bonds).

Toyota

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Frontrunning: February 1





  • Stocks cautious after rocky China data, bonds fly high (Reuters)
  • Oil falls on China data, fading prospect of OPEC action (Reuters)
  • Republican Vote in Iowa Caucus Hinges on Newcomer Turnout (WSJ)
  • When Trump tells supporters not to donate, they mostly listen (Reuters)
  • Goldman Sachs Employees Shift to Rubio as Bush Support Fades (BBG)
  • Four Theories on How Oil Has Hypnotized the Global Stock Market (BBG)
 
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Guns, Gas, & "Selling Kidneys" - 'Off The Grid' Indicators Signal Slowing Economy





Our quarterly survey of “Off the Grid” economic indicators finds that the U.S. economy is still growing, but the pace seems to be slowing from Q3 2015.

 
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Why 'The Regime' Hates Gold





There’s only one investment we can think of that many people either love or hate reflexively, almost without regard to market performance: gold. And, to a lesser degree, silver. It’s strange that these two metals provoke such powerful psychological reactions - especially among people who dislike them. Nobody has an instinctive hatred of iron, copper, aluminum, or cobalt. The reason, of course, is that the main use of gold has always been as money. And people have strong feelings about money. From an economic viewpoint, however, money is just a medium of exchange and a store of value. Efforts to turn it into a political football invariably are signs of a hidden agenda, or perhaps a psychological aberration. So, let’s take some recent statements, assertions, and opinions that have been promulgated in the media and analyze them.

 
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Is ISIS Simply A "Saudi Army In Disguise"?





What stinks in Saudi Arabia ain’t the camel dung. It’s the monarchy of King Salman and his hot-headed son, Prince Salman. For decades they have financed terrorism under a fake religious disguise, to advance their private plutocratic agenda. It has nothing to do with religion and everything to do with money and oil. Saudi control of that oil wealth (from Iraq to Syria) via their ISIS agents, along with her clear plan to take out the US shale oil competition, or so Riyadh reckons, would make the Saudi monarchy a vastly richer state.

 
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"Get Out Of Your Trucks And Run Away": US Gives ISIS 45 Minute Warning On Oil Tanker Strikes





"Warning: airstrikes are coming. Oil trucks will be destroyed. Get away from your oil trucks immediately. Get out of your trucks and run away. Do not risk your life."

 
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Frontrunning: November 5





  • BOE Stays Cautious on Rate-Hike Timing as Inflation Outlook Cut (BBG)
  • China Enters Bull Market (WSJ)
  • Britain says Islamic State likely brought down Russian plane (Reuters)
  • Dollar jumps as markets fix on December rate expectations (Reuters)
  • Activist Investor Bill Ackman Plays Defense (WSJ)
  • BOJ Survey Data Reveals Signs of Growing Inequality in Japan (BBG)
  • UAW Warns of General Motors Strike If Workers Fail to Approve Contract (WSJ)
 
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What The Oil And Gas Industry Is Not Telling Investors





There are very real threats to the business models of oil companies, threats that need to be explained to investors, according to a new report by Carbon Tracker. Right now, those threats are not being taken seriously.

 
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Frontrunning: October 27





  • Hilsenrath - The Fed Strives for a Clear Signal on Interest Rates (WSJ)
  • Tentative Budget Deal Reached, Raising Debt Limit (WSJ)
  • China Calls U.S. Challenge Over Island Threat to Regional Peace (BBG)
  • UK economy slows more than expected in third quarter (Reuters)
  • In China’s Alleyways, Underground Banks Move Money (WSJ)
  • Inside the Secretive Circle That Rules a $14 Trillion Market (BBG)
  • A Frustrated Koch Brother Decides It’s Time to ‘Spout Off’ (WSJ)
 
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Stop Blaming OPEC For Low Prices





OPEC altered the course of the oil markets last year when it decided to cast aside its traditional role of maintaining balance through production cuts. Instead it pursued a strategy of fighting for market share, contributing to an immediate rout in oil prices. WTI and Brent then went on to dive below $50 in the weeks following OPEC’s decision. OPEC is widely expected to continue its current strategy at its next meeting, and as such, no rebound in oil prices is expected, at least not because of the results of the group’s meeting in Vienna. But that raises a question about what the world of oil expects from OPEC: Why is it that the responsibility for balancing the market falls on OPEC? Why should OPEC be the one to fix the imbalances in the global crude oil trade?

 
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Frontrunning: October 26





  • European shares slip as easing expectations fade (Reuters)
  • Valeant and Pharmacy More Intertwined Than Thought (WSJ)
  • The Pawn Isolated: Valeant, Philidor and the Annals of Fraud (WSJ)
  • Strongest Afghan Quake Since 1949 Triggers Search for Survivors (BBG)
  • EU Agrees To Tighten Border Controls And Slow Migrant Arrival (AP)
  • Volkswagen Suspends More Employees (WSJ)
  • Volkswagen Loses Global Sales Lead to Toyota Amid Diesel Scandal (BBG)
 
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Futures Fizzle, Europe Red As Markets Ask: "What Do Central Banks Do Now?"





In our Chinese stock market wrap following Friday's unexpected rate cut, which saw the Shanghai Composite storm out of the gate, we said that "we would not be surprised to see China's stocks sliding back into the red very shortly as "sell the news" concerns return, and as the increasingly more addicted "markets" demand even more liquidity from central banks just to stay unchanged, let alone rise to new all time highs." Sure enough, with just minutes to go before the close, the SHCOMP wiped out all its daily gains and was set for a red close had it not been for the "national team" miraculous last minute intervention which was inevitable after Friday's PBOC rate cut, and which lifted the composite 0.5% into the green as the euphoria was rapidly evaporating.

 
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Russia "Confirms" It Has Plans To Restore Assad Government In Syria





"In the West, they talk about ‘moderate opposition,’ but we so far haven’t seen any in Syria. Any person who takes up arms and fights the legal authorities, how moderate can he be?"

 
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World's Largest Leveraged ETF Halts Orders, Citing "Liquidity Constraints"





First The Bank of Japan destroyed the Japanese bond market, and then, back in May we warned that The Bank of Japan had 'broken' the stock market. Now, it appears the all too obvious consequences of being the sole provider of buying power in an antirely false market are coming home to roost as Nomura reports the "temporary suspension" of new orders for 3 leveraged ETFs - the largest in the world - citing "liquidity of the underlying Nikkei 225 futures market."

 
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