Less than two weeks after Apple unveiledan unexpected $1 billion investment in China's Didi Chuxing, an amount some have speculated may be the cost of continuing "business as usual" for Apple's service offerings in China, moments ago Toyota unveiled that it would inject an undisclosed amount of funds in one of the most valuable private "Decacorns" in the US, Uber.
Not only is China facing a significant risk of an economic hard landing, but, as we have noted on many occasions, the country is also facing what perhaps may be an even greater risk: social unrest. As the economy continues to weaken, and layoffs continue to mount, China has started to relax its own labor rules in order to try and keep everyone happy... for now; as China is experiencing a surge in part-time workers. In order to control costs, but still meet whatever demand comes, Reuters reports factories are now hiring by the day instead of keeping workers around in a full employment contract.
If yesterday's selloff had a specific catalyst, namely some of the worst consumer retail earnings seen in years, it merely undid the Tuesday rally which levitated global risk with no fundamental driver, aside for a 200 pip spike in the USDJPY. Some central bankers may even say it was a "magical" levitation. Fast forward to the overnight session when following a muted Asian session, it was once again up to the "magical" USDJPY to send stocks well into the green without any actual catalyst whatsoever, but what merely appears to have been another "magical" intervention session by the BOJ.
In order to attract and retain small and big business alike, it's long been a tactic by states and local governments to offer tax breaks. However, as times have got tough - and rules have changed - in Obama's "recovery", government subsidies to their cronies - of at least $50 million - have plummeted by 70% Bloomberg reports.
With the Fed decision just one day away, followed the very next day by the increasingly more irrational BOJ, stocks had no desire to make significant moves and overnight's boring session was the result, as European stocks and U.S. index futures rose modestly but mostly hugged the flatline while Asian declined 0.2% for a third day as raw-material shares declined and Tokyo equities slumped before central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week. China’s stocks rose the most in almost two weeks, up 0.6% but failed to rise above 3000 on the Shanghai Composite, in thin trading.
- After big New York wins, Trump and Clinton cast themselves as inevitable (Reuters)
- Eastern States Take Turn in Presidential Primary Spotlight (WSJ)
- China's Stocks Tumble Most in Seven Weeks to Break Trading Calm (BBG)
- Oil falls on end to Kuwaiti strike, supply outlook (Reuters)
- Oil price's decline weighs on global stock markets (Reuters)
It's all fun and games until someone is caught cheating. That is the lesson that Volkswagen learned last fall, when the German car manufacturer was caught using software that could detect when an emissions test was taking place in order to give better results. Today, it looks like Mitsubishi Motors will learn that very same lesson. "We express deep apologies to all of our customers and stakeholders for this issue," Mitsubishi said in a statement, also saying that the company "conducted testing improperly to present better fuel consumption rates than the actual rates."
A new study finds there were more than twice as many big earthquakes in the first quarter of 2014 as compared with the annual average since 1979... “We have recently experienced a period that has had one of the highest rates of great earthquakes ever recorded..."
Following yesterday's OPEC "production freeze" meeting in Doha which ended in total failure, where in a seemingly last minute change of heart Saudi Arabia and specifically its deputy crown prince bin Salman revised the terms of the agreement demanding Iran participate in the freeze after all knowing well it won't, oil crashed and with it so did the strategy of jawboning for the past 2 months had been exposed for what it was: a desperate attempt to keep oil prices stable and "crush shorts" while global demand slowly picked up. And whether it is central banks, or chronic BTFDers, just 12 hours after oil opened for trading with a loud crash, the commodity has nearly wiped out all losses, and both brent and WTI were down barely 2%, leading to both European stocks and US equity futures virtually unchanged on the session.
On Sunday Toyota was one of many Japanese companies to announce that it will suspend most car production across Japan as a result of critical supply chain disruption caused by the recent destructive earthquake and numerous aftershocks. The earthquakes reflected the vulnerability of Japanese companies to supply chain disruptions caused by natural disasters, and also highlighted the "just in time" philosophy pioneered by Toyota and followed by many others.
Just as we predicted, it seems - despite the "everything is awesome" jobs data - that auto sales exuberance has hit the wall of credit saturation. Despite a surge in incentives in Q1, GM US auto sales rose just 0.6% (drastically lower than 6.0% rise expectations) and Ford rose 7.8% (missing expectations of a 9.4% surge). As J.D.Power notes "there are worrisome trends below the surface" of auto sales and with inventories at levels only seen once in the last 24 years (and tumbling used car prices), the automakers have a major problem if this is anything but 'transitory'.
At the end of the day, it was all about the dollar and the reason for this morning's stock surge around the globe, as we noted last night, is absurdly delightful: Yellen signaled "weakening world growth" and "less confidence in the renormalization process." In other words, the "bad news is good news" mantra is back front and center.
Those who forget that “liberty is the mother not the daughter of order, will be tempted to favor state-imposed order. How ironic since the state is the greatest creator of disorder of all.”
- Stocks knocked back as oil rally falters (Reuters)
- Still no deal for Britain on EU reforms after all-night talks (Reuters)
- Oil Falls Near $30 as Rising U.S. Crude Stockpiles Expand Glut (BBG)
- PBOC to Raise Reserve Ratios for Banks That Don't Meet Criteria (BBG)
- China’s Top Securities Regulator to Step Down (WSJ)
It has been a morning session of two halves. In Asia, the mood was somber, and stocks fell with the Shanghai Composite (+1.1%) outperforming on another late session binge-fest by the National Team. The European session on the other hand surged higher and did not look back when the USDJPY proceeded to soar 100 pips from overnight lows, and push the Stoxx 600 +1.7% and US equity futures up with it, with the ES trading above 1900 as of this posting, adding to the best 2-day rally in the S&P in five months.