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Frontrunning: November 19





  • Yellen Inherits Greenspan’s Conundrum as Long Rates Sink (BBG)
  • West African Mining Projects Take Hit From Ebola Crisis (WSJ)
  • Saudi oil policy uncertainty unleashes the conspiracy theorists (Reuters)
  • Senate Rejection of Keystone XL Measure Sets Up 2015 Showdown (BBG)
  • Ferguson, Missouri, remains on edge ahead of grand jury report (Reuters)
  • Putin Said to Stun Advisers by Backing Corruption Crackdown (BBG)
  • Italian ‘Invasion’ Has Swiss Fuming as Immigration Vote Looms (BBG)
  • Apple and Others Encrypt Phones, Fueling Government Standoff (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: November 5





  • From Yes We Can to Probably Not (BBG)
  • How Mitch McConnell did it (Politico)
  • Tough road ahead for Obama after Republicans seize Senate (Reuters)
  • Election 2014: Who were the big winners and losers? (USA Today)
  • GOP Senate Takeover Puts Fed on Hot Seat (WSJ), and other fables
  • GOP Won by Recruiting the Right Candidates (WSJ)
  • McCain could shake up U.S. defense in powerful new Senate role (Reuters)
  • Investors Pulled Record Amount From Pimco’s Flagship Fund in October (WSJ)
  • Taliban group threatens to attack India following border blast (Reuters)
  • Oil Import Decline to U.S. Revealed by Louisiana as Truth (BBG)
 
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Ottawa Shooter Idenfitied As Canadian National Michael Zehaf Bibeau, Whose Passport Was Recently Seized





Moments ago CBS News reported, citing Law enforcement and U.S. Government sources, that the shooter in today's tragic Ottawa incident was Michael Abdul Zehaf Bibeau, born in Canada in 1982. One source says he sometime dropped the name Michael and went by Abdul Zehaf Bibeau. At other times he apparently dropped the Abdul. In a report from the Muslim Issue, Zehaf-Bibeau is said to be reportedly of Algerian descent.

 
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A Caliph In A Wilderness Of Mirrors





"He's invincible. He beheads. He smuggles. He conquers. He's the ultimate jack-of-all-trades. No Tomahawk or Hellfire can touch him. He always gets what he wants; in Kobani; in Anbar province; with the House of Saud (which he wants to replace) trying to make Putin (who he wants to behead) suffer because of low oil prices..."

 
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Frontrunning: October 16





  • Dallas County May Declare State of Disaster From Ebola Virus (BBG)
  • Markets on edge after worst turmoil in four years (Reuters)
  • Central bankers may have no quick fix as markets swoon, economy weakens (Reuters)
  • Risk of Deflation Feeds Global Fears  (Hilsenrath)
  • U.S. health official allowed new Ebola patient on plane with slight fever (Reuters)
  • Texas Hospital Fights Allegations About Ebola Protocols (BBG)
  • Treasuries Gain as Oil Drops Below $80 While Stocks Slide (BBG)
  • Greek Bonds Slump on Bailout Concern as Spain Misses Sale Target (BBG)
  • White House shifts into crisis mode on Ebola response (Reuters)
  • Obama Confronts Slippery Slope as Islamic State Advances (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: October 15





  • M&A Bubble is bursting: AbbVie Says It Reconsiders Merger Pact With Shire (WSJ)
  • Winner of bad headline timing award: Spinoffs Could Set Stage for Next Merger Wave (BBG) - and now wait for the spinoffs getting pulled
  • Record mortgage settlement pushes Bank of America into third-quarter loss (Reuters)
  • Korea joins the Japan currency war: Bank of Korea Cuts Base Rate (WSJ)
  • Double Irish’s Slow Death Leaves Google Executives Calm (BBG)
  • Global Oil Glut Sends Prices Plunging (WSJ)
  • Slow Rise in Prices Shows China’s Economy Is Still Struggling (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: October 14





  • No Happy Ending for Investors in Central Bank Fairy Tale (BBG)
  • Ebola Response Strains Hospitals (WSJ)
  • Obama, foreign military chiefs, to thrash out Islamic State plans (Reuters)
  • Draghi’s ‘Whatever It Takes’ Plan on Trial at EU Court (BBG)
  • Too-Big-to-Fail Banks Face Up to $870 Billion Capital Gap (BBG)
  • Iran’s Message to World: You Need Us to Fight Islamists (BBG)
  • Facing new oil glut, Saudis avoid 1980s mistakes to halt price slide (Reuters)
  • Ukraine Grannies Outprice Banks on Hryvnia Black Market (BBG)
  • HK police use sledgehammers, chainsaws to clear protest barriers, open road (Reuters)
  • Gazprom Quarterly Net Rises 13%, Misses Estimate on Ukraine Debt (BBG)
 
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Chinese Car Sales Grow At Slowest Pace In 19 Months





According to Bloomberg, China’s vehicle sales grew at the slowest pace in 19 months in September as demand for trucks and buses slumped with the weaker economy. Total vehicle sales, which include passenger and commercial vehicles, rose 2.5 percent from a year earlier to 1.98 million units, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said today. That was the slowest pace since February 2013.

 
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As Monday Looms, Experts Warn Japan's Half-Trillion Dollar Fat-Finger-Trade "Could Absolutely Happen" In The US





Just over a week ago, the Japanese stock market participants were stunned when stock orders amounting to a whopping $617 billion (yes Billion with a B) - more than the size of Sweden’s economy - were canceled for reasons still unknown in what was one of the biggest 'fat finger' trading errors of all time. Since then, US equity markets have suddenly become notably more volatile - and fallen significantly, VIX has seen odd intraday 'spikes', S&P futures saw the very odd 'satan signal', and USDJPY has suffered its worst losses in 3 years. This raises the question of whether US market microstructure is any better than Michael Lewis' Flash Boys' book describes.. (as we head into a bond market holiday, dismal liquidity, and a potential Black Monday), “That could absolutely happen here,” Tabb Group's Larry Tabb warns Bloomberg.

 
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Frontrunning: October 9





  • Five U.S. airports to screen for fever (Reuters)
  • Danger, central banks trading with each other: Bipolar U.S. Stocks See Biggest Mood Swing in Three Years  (BBG)
  • Draghi Policies Blunted in Berlin as German Protests Grow (BBG)
  • White policeman kills black teen in St Louis, triggering fresh protests (Reuters)
  • Au Revoir to France’s Welfare Model as Socialists Cut Spending (BBG)
  • Here comes Roberto Cavalski (Reuters)
  • There are 49 U.S. venture-capital-backed companies with a valuation of $1 billion or more—the highest number on record (WSJ)
  • Pressure mounts on Hong Kong leader over payout amid crisis (Reuters)
 
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TEPCO Prepares Countermeasures As Typhoon Tidal Waves Approach Fukushima





UPDATE: *JMA ISSUES TORNADO WARNINGS IN TOKYO AREA, IZU ISLANDS, AS TYPHOON PHANFONE MAKES LANDFALL AT JAPAN'S SHIZUOKA, JMA SAYS

With 1 US airman dead and 2 missing, Super Typhoon Phanfone has already wreaked havoc in its doom-strewn approach of Japan, but as RIA reports, the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), has revealed that the approaching typhoon could hit the damaged, decommissioned 40-year old nuclear power facility at Fukushima. Rather stunningly, The Japan Times reports tidal waves from the storm are likely to reach a maximum height of 26.3 meters or more (compared to the 2011 tsunami which reached a height of 15.5 meters when it hit the plant). Due to the expected 'mingling' of contaminated and Typhoon-driven ocean water, TEPCO admits 100 trillion becquerels of cesium to escape; Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) plans to verify the accuracy of TEPCO's estimate and the "appropriateness" of countermeasures being taken.

 
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Japan Stunned After Biggest Ever, $617 Billion "Fat Finger" Trading Error Slams Stocks





Bloomberg reports that stock orders amounting to a whopping $617 billion (yes Bilion with a B) or more than the size of Sweden’s economy, were canceled in Japan earlier today, for reasons unknown although the early culprit is that this was one of the biggest trading errors of all time. Of course, since this trade was noted, and DKed, one can assume that a major whale was on the losing end of the trade: recall that this is precisely what happened to Goldman time and again, when some errant algo caused the firm to lose millions on several occasions in 2012 and 2013. There is one tiny difference: this time it was not Goldman, and the total amount was not a few paltry million but over half a trillion dollars!

 
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Frontrunning: September 30





  • Hong Kong protesters stockpile supplies, fear fresh police advance (Reuters)
  • Protesters stay out on Hong Kong streets, defying Beijing (Reuters)
  • Traders Turn Up Grilling Sausages at Hong Kong Protests (BBG)
  • Ukraine Army Sees Worst Day Since Truce as Battles Flare (BBG)
  • Islamic State uses grain to tighten grip in Iraq (Reuters)
  • For Putin Ally, U.S. Sanctions Only Add to Anti-Russia Conspiracy Theory (WSJ)
  • Coinbase Leads Move to Bring Bitcoin to Masses (BBG) - good luck
  • Austria Cracks Down on Spies -- and Jihadis (BBG)
  • EU Believes Apple, Fiat Tax Deals Broke Rules (WSJ); Apple’s Irish Tax Deal ‘Engineered’ to Boost Employment, EU Says (BBG)
 
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The Top 10 Questions Everyone Should Ask About Alibaba





With the Alibaba roadshow kicking off this week, ConvergEx's Nick Colas reviews the second-order implications of this historic transaction. Over the next two weeks investors will have to consider important issues, such as which stocks money managers will sell to fund their BABA purchase and what securities (stocks and ETFs) hedge funds may short to pair against an Alibaba long position. And consider: "Do big IPOs signal a market top?" Also, with an estimated $7 billion in fresh cash and a valuable public stock post-IPO, BABA will also be able to play the M&A game aggressively. Just consider its corporate North Star: "Our mission is to make it easy to do business anywhere" (the first line of the S-1 summary). In short, Colas concludes Alibaba really is a big deal (at 27.3x trailing EV/EBITDA).

 
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