Trade Balance

Tyler Durden's picture

After Cutting US Growth Due To Snow, Goldman Now Warns West Coast Port Congestion Will "Drag On GDP"





Last week, when with much amusement we observed that the first of many Q1 GDP cuts due to snow... in the winter... had taken place, we warned that next up on the GDP-trimming agenda would be "the West Coast port strike to take place in 2-4 weeks." We were wrong: it wasn't 2-4 weeks. It was 4 days, because overnight first Goldman (and soon all the other penguins) released a report titled "The Fallout from West Coast Port Disruptions" and sure enough, Goldman's conclusion is that "On balance, we think the net impact on Q1 GDP is probably a modest drag, although the estimated effect is highly uncertain at this point in the quarter."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

31st Japanese Trade Deficit In A Row, Longest Stretch In 60 Years





With seasonal adjustments wreaking havoc on the data, Japanese imports (collapsed 9% YoY) and exports (soared 17% YoY), leaving Japan with a trillion-yen deficit. This is the 31st month in a row... the longest stretch since 1954...

 
Pivotfarm's picture

'Grexit' Risks Rise But Compromise Seen Still Possible





The chances of Greece being forced out of the euro zone have risen but a compromise agreement between Athens and its European partners is still possible, Greek media and investment banks said on Tuesday.

 
Sprout Money's picture

Don’t Let The Recent Price Drop Fool You – US Retail Demand For Gold and Silver Sky-high!





We are in record territory and demand for gold and silver keeps rising...

 
Pivotfarm's picture

Rate cuts since Lehman: 542 and counting





Six years on from the financial crisis and central banks are still hacking away at interest rates. Australia and Romania's did this week and while Poland and India held off, both are expected to prune rates later in 2015.

 
Marc To Market's picture

What to Look for in the Week Ahead





Non-bombastic, non-insulting simply straight-forward look at next week's key events and data.  If you are so inclined...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Remembering The Currency Wars Of The 1920s & 1930s (And Central Banks' "Overused Bag Of Tricks")





“No stock-market crash announced bad times. The depression rather made its presence felt with the serial crashes of dozens of commodity markets. To the affected producers and consumers, the declines were immediate and newsworthy, but they failed to seize the national attention. Certainly, they made no deep impression at the Federal Reserve.” - 1921 or 2015?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Market Wrap: Copper Plummets; Euro Plunges To 9 Year Low On Euro-Court's OMT Ruling, Futures Down





'After two days of sharp intraday and vicious reversals, the BTFD algos are suspiciously missing overnight, when as reported earlier, a bout of margin calls and stop loss selling meant not crude but copper would crash in today's episode of "guess the crashing commodity", on what Goldman dubbed a Chinese demand collapse which for those confused is different than an OPEC supply glut, and is also the reason why the entire commodity complex is trading at a decade plus low. As a result copper plunged to a five and a half year low, in the process halting the market due to the severity of the plunge. But the big event overnight was the farcical announcement by the European top court, which as everyone expected, rejected the German rejection of the OMT as illegal, stating it was not only legal (with certain conditions) but greenlighting the way for the ECB's QE in one week, a move which sent the EURUSD crashing to a fresh 9 year low!

 
Marc To Market's picture

What are We Watching?





Assume the news for next week has not already been written,  What should investors, or those monitoring the international political economy be watching?  Here is my list.  

 
Tyler Durden's picture

US Trade Deficit Drops To $39 Billion, Lowest Since December 2013 As Imports, Exports Decline





Those waiting to see if the crude crash would lead to any sizable adverse impact on the US trade deficit in November, as lower production led to higher imports if only on paper, the answer is yes, but in the opposite direction: instead of increasing or dropping just marginally from October's $43.4 billion (to the $42 billion consensus estimate), the November trade deficit tumbled by 7.7% to $39 billion the lowest print since December 2013, as a result of a 2.2% drop in imports coupled with a 1% decline in exports. But it was shale crude once again that was the swing factor, which was massively produced as domestic producers scramble to offset declining prices with extra volume, because as the data showed, in November the US imported the smallest crude amount by notional since 1994, and the lowest cost crude since 2010.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 7





  • Twelve shot dead in Paris (Reuters)
  • Eurozone Consumer Prices Fall for First Time Since 2009 (NYT)
  • Euro's Drop is a Turning Point for Central Banks Reserves (BBG)
  • How $50 Oil Changes Almost Everything (BBG)
  • Mercedes-Benz Moving U.S. Headquarters to Atlanta (WSJ)
  • Greek 10-Year Bond Yields Exceed 10% for First Time Since 2013 (BBG)
  • How Even Dairy Farmers Get Squeezed by Rigging in the $5.3 Trillion Currency Market (BBG)
  • AirAsia jet tail found underwater, black box may be close (Reuters)
  • Italy Unemployment Rises to New High (Bloomberg)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

First Euroarea Deflation Since Lehman Sends Futures Higher; Brent Tumbles Below $50 Then Rebounds





Things in risk land started off badly this morning, with the worst start to a year ever was set to worsen when European equities came under early selling pressure following news of German unemployment falling to record low, offset by a record high Italian jobless rate, with declining oil prices still the predominant theme as Brent crude briefly touched its lowest level since May 2009, this consequently saw the German 10yr yield print a fresh record low in a continuation of the move seen yesterday. However, after breaking USD 50.00 Brent prices have seen an aggressive bounce which has seen European equities move into positive territory with the energy names helping lift the sector which is now outperforming its peers. As a result fixed income futures have pared a large majority of the move higher at the EU open. But the punchline came several hours ago courtesy of Eurostat, when it was revealed that December was the first deflationary month for the Eurozone since the depths of the financial crisis more than five years ago, when prices dropped by -0.2% below the -0.1% expectation, and sharply lower than the 0.3% increase in November, driven by a collapse in Energy prices.

 
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