Trade Balance

Ah, hmm, yes, Greece… Not much else to chew on.

Risk is lofty and near the point where all stimulus measures that were already priced have been delivered.

So, what's next?

Stocks in Europe traded lower throughout the session, as market participants reacted to another round of weak data from Asia. In particular, China’s imports fell 2.6% on the year in  August vs. Exp. 3.5%, underpinning the need for policy easing measures from the People's Bank Of China. Some of the weakness in equity space was also attributed to profit taking following last week’s gains. Spanish bonds continued to benefit from the ongoing speculation that the government will seek a full scale bailout. As a result, SP/GE 10y bond yield spread is tighter even though there is an outside chance that the constitutional court vote in Germany will delay this. On the other hand, IT/GE and NE/GE bond yield spreads are wider, reflective the upcoming issuance, as well as elections. EUR/USD and GBP/USD, both seen lower on the back of touted profit taking, as well as pre-positioning into near-term risk events mentioned above. Commodity linked currencies are also weaker, weighed on by the weaker data from China, which also showed that imports of crude oil hit a 22-month low. In terms of notable stocks news, Glencore said it will not improve its offer for Xstrata after the company raised offer for Xstrata to 3.05 from 2.8.

Suddenly the delicate balancing of variables is once again an art and not a science, ahead of a week packed with binary outcomes in which the market is already priced in for absolute perfection. Per DB: We have another blockbuster week ahead of us so let's jump straight into previewing it. One of the main highlights is the German Constitutional Court's ruling on the ESM and fiscal compact on Wednesday. On the same day we will also see the Dutch go to the polls for the Lower House elections. Thursday then sees a big FOMC meeting where the probabilities of QE3 will have increased after the weak payrolls last Friday. The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet on Thursday in Mexico before the ECOFIN/Eurogroup meeting in Cyprus rounds out the week on Friday. These are also several other meetings/events taking place outside of these main ones. In Greece, PM Samaras is set to meet with representatives of the troika today, before flying to Frankfurt for a meeting with Draghi on Tuesday. The EC will also present proposals on a single banking supervision mechanism for the Euro area on Tuesday. If these weren't enough to look forward to, Apple is expected to release details of its new iPhone on Wednesday. In summary, it will be a good week to test the theory that algos buy stocks on any flashing red headlines, no longer even pretending to care about the content. Think of the cash savings on the algo "reading" software: in a fumes-driven market in which even the HFTs no longer can make money frontrunning and subpennyiong order flow, they need it.

Central Banks United have the upper hand these days. So don’t mess with them…

At least not this week…

The discussion over the GOP's gold standard proposals continues in spite of the fact that everybody surely knows the idea is not even taken seriously by its proponents – as we noted yesterday, there is every reason to believe it is mainly designed to angle for the votes of disaffected Ron Paul and Tea Party supporters, many of whom happen to believe in sound money. As we also pointed out, there has been a remarkable outpouring of opinion denouncing the gold standard. Unfortunately many people are misinformed about both economic history and economic theory and simply regurgitate the propaganda they have been exposed to all of their lives. Consider this our attempt to present countervailing evidence. The 'Atlantic' felt it also had to weigh in on the debate, and has published an article that shows, like a few other examples we have examined over recent days, how brainwashed the public is with regards to the issue and what utterly spurious arguments are often employed in the current wave of anti-gold propaganda. The piece is entitled “Why the Gold Standard Is the World's Worst Economic Idea, in 2 Charts”, and it proves not only what we assert above, it also shows clearly why empirical evidence cannot be used for deriving tenets of economic theory.

• Ringing endorsement: Lithuania to Adopt Euro When Europe Is Ready, Kubilius Says (Bloomberg)
• Credit Agricole net plunges 67% on losses in Greece and a writedown of its stake in Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (Bloomberg)
• Europe finally starting to smell the coffee: ECB Urging Weaker Basel Liquidity Rule on Crisis Concerns (Bloomberg)
• Japan Cuts Economic Assessment (Reuters)
• France’s Leclerc Stores to Sell Fuel at Cost, Chairman Says (Bloomberg)
• China Eyes Ways to Broaden Yuan’s Use (WSJ)
• Berlin and Paris forge union over crisis (FT)
• Brezhnev Bonds Haunt Putin as Investors Hunt $785 Billion (Bloomberg)
• Republicans showcase Romney as storm clouds convention (Reuters)
• ECB official seeks to ease bond fears (FT)
• German at European Central Bank at Odds With Country’s Policy Makers (NYT)

European bourses are down at the North American crossover, all ten sectors in the red, on thin volumes and a distinct lack of data and news flow from the EU and the UK. The risk-off tone in part attributed to the much wider than expected Japanese trade deficit for July, whose exports also fell the most in six months, raising investor concern once again that Asian economy as a whole is stalling. Elsewhere, investor caution over the Greek debt crisis is once again mounting, as EU’s Juncker visits Athens today to meet with the Greek PM Samaras. Overnight it was reported that Greece would present EUR 13.5bln in budget cuts today, higher than the previous EUR 11.5bln, and whilst the country is not asking for more money, Samaras might request more time to implement them. Lawmakers in Netherlands remain critical of providing more aid for the country and continue to push for more reforms, such as spending cuts and privatization, with the Dutch Finance Minister de Jaeger commenting earlier that it is not a good idea for Greece to get more time.

Somewhat disastrous trade balance data from Japan - with exports dramatically worse-than-expected (EU exports -25.1% YoY) and imports worse-than-expected (which will come as no surprise to any ZH reader given Europe's depression and our discussion of world trade here) - has crushed JPY crosses overnight (especially AUDJPY) which is exactly what we said at the close today was required to extend today's equity weakness. Sure enough, S&P 500 futures are down over 6 points from the close now - and trading below day-session lows.

• 'Pussy Riot' band members found guilty (Al Jazeera)
• Merkel Says Germany Backs Draghi’s ECB Aid Conditionality (Bloomberg)
• Now, the reverse psychology: Hilsenrath: Fed 'Hawks' Weigh In Against More Action (WSJ)
• London Firings Seen Surging As Finance Firms Add NY Jobs (Bloomberg)
• Facebook Second-Worst IPO Performer After Share Lock-Up (Bloomberg)
• Kocherlakota Says FOMC Goes Too Far With 2014 Rate Pledge (Bloomberg)
• China Said to Order Action by Banks as Developer Loans Sour (Bloomberg)
• Australian Treasury Dismisses AUD Intervention Calls (Dow Jones)
• Brevan Howard Loses Third Founder As Rokos Said To Leave (Bloomberg)
• Japan eyes end to decades long deflation (Reuters)... for 30 years now
• Ex-Morgan Stanley Executive Gets Nine Months in China Case (Bloomberg)

• Investors Shift Money Out of China (WSJ)
• Rajoy Risks Riling ECB in Bid to Avoid Union Ire (Bloomberg)
• Romney-Ryan See Fed QE as Inflation Risk Amid Subdued Prices (Bloomberg)
• Spanish savers offered haircut then money back (FT)
• Must wipe all traces of illegality and settle for $25,000: Standard Chartered Faces Fed Probes After N.Y. Deal (BBG)
• Greece debt report backs cuts plan (FT)
• Greece seeks two-year austerity extension (FT)
• Brevan Howard Looks To U.S. To Raise Money For Currency Fund (Bloomberg)
• Can he please stop buying gold? Paulson, Soros Add Gold as Price Declines Most Since 2008 (Bloomberg)
• BOE Drops Reference to Rate Cut as It Considers Policy Options (Bloomberg)
• EU Banking Plans Asks ECB to Share Power, Documents Show (Bloomberg)

Last week was a scratch in terms of events, if not in terms of multiple expansion, as 2012 forward EPS continued contraction even as the market continued rising and is on the verge of taking out 2012 highs - surely an immediate catalyst for the New QE it is pricing in. This week promises to be just as boring with few events on the global docket as Europe continues to bask in mid-August vacation, and prepare for the September event crunch. Via DB, In Europe, apart from GDP tomorrow we will also get inflation data from the UK, Spain and France as well as the German ZEW survey. Greece will also auction EU3.125bn in 12-week T-bills to help repay a EU3.2bn bond due 20 August held by the ECB. Elsewhere will get Spanish trade balance and euroland inflation data on Thursday, German PPI and the Euroland trade balance on Friday. In the US we will get PPI, retail sales and business inventories tomorrow. On Wednesday we get US CPI, industrial production, NY Fed manufacturing, and the NAHB  housing index. Building permits/Housing starts and Philly Fed survey are the highlights for Thursday before the preliminary UofM consumer sentiment survey on Friday.

European markets opened lower as risk-off was observed across the asset classes as participants reacted to the disappointing data from China overnight. Continental equity futures have moved horizontally throughout the session so far with little newsflow or influential data to sway price action. Heading into the European open, little has changed as all European indices are in the red, being led lower by consumer goods and utilities. China posted a sharp narrowing in their trade balance surplus to USD 25bln from USD 32bln in June, as the growth in exports slows across the month. As such, it is not a surprise to hear the usual market chatter of the Chinese central bank taking an imminent move to cut their Reserve Requirement Ratio today. However, as nothing has materialised, the riskier assets have not seen any significant lift from the talk.

The initial boost given to European equities following weaker than expected overnight data from China, which renewed speculation of more stimulus measures, has faded throughout the morning. The major European bourses are now trading in negative territory at the North American crossover. The DAX is underperforming, weighed down by the likes of Commerzbank and Deutsche Telekom who both failed to impress markets with their earnings reports pre-market. However, thin summer volumes and another light economic calendar have once again been the theme for the morning, with only the UK Trade Balance for June gaining some market attention. Despite the larger than expected deficit, the ONS said that the figure is likely distorted by the extra public holidays.

• Gu Kailai Trial Has Ended, verdict imminent (WSJ)
• Greek unemployment rises to 23.1 pct in May, new record (Reuters)
• Greece’s Power Generator Tests Euro Fitness Amid Blackout Threat (Bloomberg)
• Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Results May Ease Wind-Down Push (Bloomberg)
• Monti takes off gloves in euro zone fight (Reuters)
• U.S. Fed extends comment period for Basel III (Reuters)
• HP in $8bn writedown on services arm (FT) - must be good for +10% in the stock
• News Corp in $2.8bn writedown (FT) - must be good for +10% in the stock
• Japan to Pass Sales Tax Bill After Noda Avoids Election Push (Bloomberg)
• China May Set New Property Controls This Month, Securities Says (Bloomberg)