Trade Balance

• 6.0+ Magnitude quake strikes near Tokyo (USGS)
• Ireland Faces Legal Challenge on Bank Bailout (Reuters)
• Bernanke says U.S. needs faster growth (Reuters)
• Spain Promises Austere Budget Despite Poll Blow (Reuters)
• Orban Punished by Investors as Hungary Retreats From IMF Talks (Bloomberg)
• Obama vows to pursue further nuclear cuts with Russia (Reuters)
• Japan's Azumi Wants Tax Issue Decided Tuesday (WSJ)
• Australia Losing Competitive Edge, Says Dow Chemicals CEO (Australian)
• OECD Urges ‘Ambitious’ Eurozone Reform (FT)
• Yields Less Than Italy’s Signal Indonesia Exiting Junk (Bloomberg)

It is a fact that when it comes to the oddly resilient Japanese hyperlevered economic model, the bodies of those screaming for the end of the JGB bubble litter the sides of central planning's tungsten brick road. Yet in the aftermath of last month's stunning surge in the country's trade deficit, this, and much more may soon be finally ending. Because as Caixin's Andy Xie writes "The day of reckoning for the yen is not distant. Japanese companies are struggling with profitability. It only gets worse from here. When a major company goes bankrupt, this may change the prevailing psychology. A weak yen consensus will emerge then." As for the bubble pop, it will be a sudden pop, not the 30 year deflationary whimper Mrs. Watanabe has gotten so used to: "Yen devaluation is likely to unfold quickly. A financial bubble doesn't burst slowly. When it occurs, it just pops. The odds are that yen devaluation will occur over days. Only a large and sudden devaluation can keep the JGB yield low. Otherwise, the devaluation expectation will trigger a sharp rise in the JGB yield. The resulting worries over the government's solvency could lead to a collapse of the JGB market." It gets worse: "Of course, the government will collapse with the JGB market." And once Japan falls, the rest of the world follows, says Xie, which is why he is now actively encouraging China, and all other Japanese trade partners of the world's rapidly declining 3rd largest economy to take precautions for when this day comes... soon.

Next week will be relatively light in economic reporting, and with no HFT exchange IPOs on deck, and the VVIX hardly large enough to warrant a TVIX type collapse, it may be downright boring. The one thing that will provide excitement is whether or not the US economic decline in March following modestly stronger than expected January and February courtesy of a record warm winter, will accelerate in order to set the stage for the April FOMC meeting in which Bill Gross, quite pregnant with a record amount of MBS, now believes the first QE hint will come. Naturally this can not happen unless the market drops first, but the market will only spike on every drop interpreting it for more QE hints, and so on in a senseless Catch 22 until the FRBNY is forced to crash the market with gusto to unleash the NEW qeasing (remember - the Fed is now officially losing the race to debase). For those looking for a more detailed preview of next week's events, Goldman provides a handy primer.

FX traders of the world have been forlorn for a week or two as the lack of directional guidance from the anti-guru-du-jour Thomas Stolper of Goldman has been sorely lacking. Worry no more. He is back with with his latest 'Fadance' (/fey-dyns, verb/ - "Advice" which Goldman Sachs provides to "muppets") in that he prefers to be short USDJPY from 82.8 (suggesting JPY strength on the back of seasonal patterns and the recent deterioration in the trade balance as being transitory temporary). Given his recent track record, being long the USD against the JPY would seem appropriate and his stop (and therefore the target) at around 84.5.

European cash equity markets are making heavy losses as we head into the midpoint of the European session. Markets got off to a bad start as participants reacted to overnight Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI recording a steeper contraction than the previous month. The manufacturing outlook has gotten even worse as the session has progressed, with France, Germany and the Eurozone as a collective recording contractions in their respective manufacturing PMI numbers for March. As such, commodity linked currencies are trading lower with AUD/USD down around 85 pips. WTI and Brent crude futures are moving in tandem with other markets as they also record losses going into the US open. In other news, there were reports that the ECB were looking to pull out their covered bond asset purchase program as less than a quarter of the fund has been used so far. A Bundesbank spokesman commented that it will not pressure the ECB into withdrawing the covered bond purchase program as it is the central bank’s decision to make. Looking ahead in the session, the market awaits the weekly US jobs data due at 1230GMT.

• Beijing on edge amid coup rumours (FT) - as predicted two days ago, do not expect any official media update on this critical matter, until after the outcome, whatever it is
• Goldman scours emails for use of word "muppets" (Reuters)
• Germany to Balance Budget Early (WSJ)
• Osborne Gives and Takes From Rich in U.K. Budget Balancing Act (Bloomberg)
• Big Spending at Fannie, Freddie Should End, Watchdog Says (Bloomberg)
• Volcker Says U.S. Needs Reforms in Finance, Government (Bloomberg)
• Chinese Firms, Regulators in Talks on Yuan-Fund Program (FT)
• Ireland Said to Ready Bank-Debt Proposal for ECB Review (Bloomberg)

This week brings policy decisions in Taiwan and Thailand. The CBC decision will be very interesting to watch. The December statement at the time was surprisingly hawkish, only to be followed by a large upside surprise in inflation, and the TWD was subsequently allowed to appreciate. Given that the bank continues to view inflation as a major problem, according to quotes from Reuters, it will be very interesting to see how the bank weighs up concerns about hot money inflows vs the need to contain inflation risks. In particular, in the face of imported inflation pressures via higher commodity prices, many central banks may shift towards accepting the need for more currency strength. The week also brings some important central bank commentary. The RBA governor has an opportunity to opine on the recent slew of weak Australian data, as well as developments in the A$. There is quite a bit of commentary from Fed officials on the docket, including from Bernanke, which we will dissect for information on the further direction of policy. More dovish commentary than that of the FOMC last week, would arguably be a surprise and potentially dampen, if not reverse some of the moves of last week.

Ahead of the US open, markets are exhibiting some modest risk appetite, with all major European bourses trading higher, and financials outperforming all other sectors. There has been little in the way of key data from Europe, however we have seen the Eurozone Trade Balance coming in alongside expectations in the seasonally adjusted reading. Bund futures continue to move lower in recent trade as US participants come into the market, with the 10-year German yield crossing the 2% level to the upside, trading at a level not seen since the 10th February. Bunds may also have experienced some pressure following the release of a research note from a major US bank recommending rotation trade with the selling of bonds and the buying of equities. USD/JPY is seen trading higher ahead of the US open following the overnight release of some relatively dovish BoJ minutes, with commentary suggesting further easing in Japan in the future. Taking a look at the energy complex, The IEA have commented on yesterday’s speculation concerning the use of the US’ Special Petroleum Reserve, stating that they have not received any contact regarding any emergency oil release. As such, WTI and Brent crude futures are seen higher; however they have seen some selling off in recent trade.

• Tapping oil from the SPR may be trickier than ever (Reuters)
• Why Quantitative Easing Is The Only Game in Town: Martin Wolf (FT)
• Lacker Says Fed May Need to Raise Target Interest Rate in 2013 (Bloomberg)
• Japan Debt-Financing Concern Clouds BOJ’s Bond Buying (Bloomberg) No worries - US will just buy Japan's bonds
• IMF Approves €28bn Loan to Greece (FT)
• Banks Want Fed to Iron Out 'Maiden' (WSJ)
• China 'Wealth Exodus' Underestimated (China Daily)
• Geithner Calls For Reforms to Boost Growth (FT)
• China Adds Treasuries For First Time Since July on Europe Woes (Bloomberg)
• Osborne Weighs 50p Tax Rate Cut To 45p (FT)

All you need to read.

All you need to read.

European equity markets are trading higher across the board ahead of the US open, with the financials sector outstripping others and Health Care lagging behind, although still in positive territory. The main news from yesterday’s finance minister’s meeting was instruction to reduce their deficit by a further 0.5% of GDP; this is having an effect on the Spanish spread against the German bund today, underperforming against other European spreads. The main data of the European session so far comes from Germany, with the ZEW survey for Economic sentiment beating expectations for March, as well as the UK trade balance figures showing a record high in the UK’s non-EU exports. As the session progresses, participants will be looking towards the US retail sales data and the latest FOMC rate decision.

• Tainted Libor Guessing Games Face Replacement by Real Trades (Bloomberg) - so circular, self-reported data is "tainted" - but consumer confidence is great for pumping a stock market?
• Japan Sets up $12 Billion Program for Dollar Loans, Increases Growth Fund (Bloomberg)
• China Hints at Halt to Renminbi Rise (FT)
• Spain Pressed to Cut More From Its Budget (FT)
• Bailout can make Greek debt sustainable, but risks remain: EU/IMF (Reuters)
• Banks to Face Tough Reviews, Details of Mortgage Deal Show (NYT)
• U.S. and Europe Move on China Minerals (WSJ)
• Use of Homeless as Internet Hot Spots Backfires on Marketer (NYT)
• Obama administration seeks to pressure China on exports with new trade case (AP)

In addition to all the US election year propaganda and delayed after effects of central banks injecting nearly $3 trillion in liquidity to juice up the US stock market, something far more notable yet underreported has happened in 2012: the world stopped exporting. Observe the following sequence of very recent headlines: "Japan trade deficit hits record", "Australia Records First Trade Deficit in 11 Months on 8% Plunge in Exports", "Brazil Posts First Monthly Trade Deficit in 12 Months " then of course this: "[US] Trade deficit hits 3-year record imbalance", and finally, as of late last night, we get the following stunning headline: "China Has Biggest Trade Shortfall Since 1989 on Europe Turmoil." Here we must apologize, but blaming the highest trade deficit in 23 years for a country that needs a trade surplus to exist, on the Chinese Lunar new year, which accidentally happens every year, is more than a little naive. Because as the charts below indicate, while exports did in fact tumble in a seasonal pattern as they do every February although more than expected, February imports of $146 billion not only did not drop, but posted a 19% increase compared to January, and soared 40% compared to a year prior. Why? Perhaps the second consecutive record high in monthly crude imports has something to do with it. Which in turn when considering the huge selloff of US Treasury paper by China in the last few months, indicates that the world's fastest growing economy no longer has an interest in taking its export dollars and using them to fund purchases of US paper, but is in fact converting US fiat into real, hard goods. Such as crude (for all those curious where the marginal demand is coming from that is). And most likely gold. But we will only learn about the gold hoarding well after the fact, when China is prepared to see the price of the metal soar as it did in 2009.

While NFP dominated the headlines, the US Trade Balance (deficit) limped out and dropped far more than expected. At a $52.565bn Deficit, this is the worst trade balance since October 2008. Perhaps more shocking is the fact that the 3 month drop (rise in deficit) is the largest ever on record, dropping $9.4bn in that period. Unsurprisingly, the bulk of this drop is in the 'Petroleum' trade balance which has accelerated the most in the last 3 months (coincidentally dropping the most since last March and we know how that ended).