Trade Balance

After weeks of relentless flashing red headline barrage whose only purpose was to force snap algo buying of the USDJPY pair time after time after time, Japan is once again out of FX algo danging carrots after moments ago Abe confirmed what everyone had known already: he called a snap election to seek a mandate for his decision to delay by 18 months a further sales-tax increase that had been planned for next year; he also said he would dissolve the lower house of parliament on Nov. 21 in preparation for an election in December, without specifying a date. Cited by the WSJ, Abe said "To ensure the success of Abenomics, I’ve concluded that it shouldn’t be carried out next October and instead be postponed by 18 months,” the prime minister told a nationally televised news conference, stressing that the additional tax burden would risk putting the economy back into deflation. “I will seek the people’s judgment over our economic policy."

Kuroda has fired the shot that looks likely to trigger the next phase of the crazy monetary experiment we’ve all been living in for the last five years. Unfortunately, the next phase is where things start to get nasty. Just because equity markets cheered the latest sugar rush he guaranteed them should not make smart investors lower their guard — quite the opposite, in fact. Colonel Kuroda has gone up-country into the Heart of Darkness, and all we can do is await the Apocalypse now.

Following Friday's sticksave, where the usual 3:30 pm ramp brigade pushed futures just barely green into the close despite a miss in the payrolls report which the spin brigade did everything in its power to make it seem that the hiring a few hundred thousand young female waitresses was bullish for the economy, overnight we have seen a listless session, dominated by more USD-profit taking as increasingly more wonder if the relentless surge higher in the Greenback is massively overdone, especially considering that stocks are screaming "worldwide recession" excluding the US, if only for now, because as Goldman explained soaring USD means plunging Oil, means tumbling E&P capex, means lower GDP, means less growth, means lower corporate profits, and so on. That said, we expect the now trivial Virtu JPY momentum-ignition algos to activate shortly, pushing the USDJPY and its derivative, the S&P500, higher in the coming minutes, and certainly before the US market opens in under 3 hours.

As the chart below shows, US trade excluding Petroleum, just tumbled to $48.3 billion, essentially matching the worst print in the history of the series, suggesting that portrayals of the US as a resurgent export powerhouse are completely erroneous, and that instead the US is as big a net importer of goods and services, aside from the Shale revolution of course, as ever.

This could be a problem for the escape velocity believers... The US trade balance printed its biggest deficit since April at -$43.0bn (missing expectations of -$40.2bn) bn. This mainly reflected a decrease in exports (but, but decoupling!?) though imports also slid.

• Republicans expect gains, but many races close on election day (Reuters)
• Ahead of tough election, White House blames dismay with Washington (Reuters)
• On Election Day, a Tale of the Young and the Old (WSJ)
• Because the recovery: Sprint to Cut 2,000 Jobs as Mobile Customers Keep Leaving (BBG)
• Ukraine's rebel leader is sworn in, crisis deepens (Reuters)
• Brilliant: Burkina Faso Army Promises Religious Leaders It Will Step Down (BBG)
• More Unknowns Leave Central Banks Facing Greater Internal Strife (BBG)
• Scapegoat found: IBM to Change Leadership at Global Services Unit (WSJ)
• Explains why Europe just slashed its GDP forecast: Don’t Be Fooled by Warm Spell as Cold Air About to Return (BBG)

what is strange is that while traditionally such a major downward growth revision would have been sufficient to send futures soaring - why: because in a world where only central banks are left, it means more central bank global bailouts of course - this time the adverse update actually had the impact of sending futures to their lows of the session, granted just a few tiny points since the market is clearly disconnected with even the most pro forma, non-GAAP version of reality, but the reaction direction was clearly unexpected. Perhaps this is explained by the ongoing devastation in both WTI and Brent, which were trading at $76.70 and $82.50 at last check, both down almost 3% as the plan to use Saudi Arabia to crush Russia has instead backfired and the Saudi princes are now openly looking at destroying the US shale infrastructure, as we forecast in the worst, for Obama, scenario.

Before: "The U.S. economy expanded steadily again during the third quarter, a sign of sustained growth fueled by American consumers and businesses despite mounting concerns about the health of overseas economies."

After: "The U.S. economy expanded at a healthy pace during the third quarter, a sign of sustained growth fueled by government spending and a narrower trade deficit despite mounting concerns about the health of overseas economies."

While the last clause in that sentence maintains the sunshine optimism, it is hardly the same interpretation, is it?

• Futures rally after BOJ ramps up stimulus (Reuters), Japan's central bank shocks markets with more easing as inflation slows (Reuters)
• Kuroda Jolts Markets With Assault on Deflation Mindset (BBG)
• Japan Mega-Pension Shifts to Stocks (WSJ)
• Russia Raises Interest Rates (WSJ)
• Oil-Price Drop Has Saudi Officials Divided (WSJ)
• Not anymore, the BOJ is here: Fed Exit Could Spark Slump in All Markets, ATP CEO Says (BBG)
• Wal-Mart Weighs Matching Online Prices from Amazon (WSJ)
• Euro-Area Inflation Picks Up From Five-Year Low on Stimulus (BBG)
• Big Banks Brace for Penalties in Probes  (WSJ)
• Ex-UBS Trader Defense Could Be Threat to U.S. Forex Cases (BBG)

So far the overnight session has been a mirror image of Monday's, when futures languished at the lows only to ramp higher as soon as Europe started BTFD. Today, on the other hand, we had a rather amusing surge in the AUDJPY as several central banks were getting "liquidity rebates" from the CME to push the global carry-fueled risk complex higher, only to see their efforts crash and burn as Europe's key economic events hit. First, it was the Eurozone Industrial Production, which confirmed that the triple dip is well and here, when it printed -1.8%, below the expected -1.6%, and far below last month's 1.0%. This comes in the month when German IP plunged most since 2009, confirming that this time it's different, and it is Germany that is leading Europe's collapse into the Keynesian abyss not the periphery. And speaking of Germany, at the same time Europe's former growth dynamo released an October ZEW survey of -3.6%, the 10th consecutive decline and well below the 0.0% expected: first negative print since late 2012!

Today US activity will be very light given the Columbus Day holiday. As DB summarizes, we have a relatively quiet day for data watchers today but the calendar will pick up tomorrow and beyond with a big focus on inflation numbers amongst other things. Indeed tomorrow will see the release of Germany’s ZEW survey alongside CPI prints from the UK, France and Spain. Wednesday’s data highlights will include the US retail sales for September, the Fed’s Beige Book, CPI readings from China and Germany, US PPI, and the NY Fed Empire State survey. Draghi will speak twice on Wednesday which could also be a source for headlines. On Thursday, we will get Industrial Production stats and the Philly Fed Survey from the US on top of the usual weekly jobless claims. European CPI will also be released on Wednesday. We have the first reading of October’s UofM Consumer Sentiment on Friday along with US building permits/housing starts. Yellen’s speech at the Boston Fed Conference on Friday (entitled “Inequality of Economic Opportunity”) will also be closely followed.

With futures slamming the lows at their open yesterday evening, touching levels not seen since May, and with the EuroStoxx 50 officialy entering correction just hours ago, down 10% from the June highs, many were wondering if the NY Fed's Chicago Trading Desk, aka Overnight Ramp Capital LLC, would be put in damage control duty and send futures right back to unchanged (because with new Ebola patient alerts springing up everywhere from Boston to Los Angeles, the pandemic is clearly contained). The answer, with a whopping 20 point levitation on no volume, and futures which are pointing now well into the green (not to mention the Eurostoxx rebounding off the lows and now green too), is a resounding yes (thank the  AUDJPY, which is over 100 pips off the overnight lows and back over 94).

What if there was some degrees of freedom in the centrally planned capital markets that rational, non-emotional and non-ideologically-laden thinking could shed light on ? Here is such an attempt

Despite the reassuring narrative from The West that Russia faces "costs" and is increasingly "isolated" due to sanctions for its actions in Ukraine, the most recent data suggests reality is quite different. First, capital outflows slowed dramatically in Q3 (from $23.7 billion in Q2 to $13 billion in Q3) with September seeing capital inflows for the first time since Sept 2013. Second, Russia's current account surplus was significantly stronger than expected ($11.4 billion vs $8.8 billion expected) driven by increased trade. Third, and perhaps most crucially, Russia paid down a massive $52.8 billion in foreign debt as Putin "de-dollarizes" at near record pace, reducing external debt to the lowest since 2012.

• IRELAND SELLS 10-YEAR BONDS AT RECORD-LOW YIELD OF 1.63%
• GERMAN 10-YEAR BUNDS RISE; YIELD FALLS 2 BASIS POINTS TO 0.88%
• DUTCH 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD DROPS TO RECORD-LOW 1.021%
• PORTUGUESE 10-YEAR BOND YIELD DROPS TO RECORD-LOW 2.942%
• FRENCH 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS DROP TO RECORD-LOW 1.214%
• U.S. 10-YEAR NOTE YIELD DROPS TO 2.296%, LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2013
• SPANISH 10-YEAR BOND YIELD DROPS TO RECORD-LOW 2.038%
• FINNISH 10-YEAR YIELD DROPS TO 1% FOR FIRST TIME ON RECORD