Trade Deficit

Robert Shiller: 1987 Could Happen Again

"Oct. 19, 1987, was one of the worst days in stock market history. Thirty years later, it would be comforting to believe it couldn’t happen again. We are still at risk, however: That kind of panic can certainly happen again."

Buffett's Wrong - Why Market Valuations Are Not Justified By Low Interest Rates

"It's such a comforting, even satisfying assumption; the idea that 'lower interest rates justify higher valuations'...   Unfortunately, the convenience of investing-by-slogan is currently leading investors into what is likely to be one of the worst disasters in the history of the U.S. stock market..."

European Stocks On Edge Ahead Of Catalan Independence Call, S&P Futures Rise

S&P futures are again modestly in the green as European shares hold steady ahead of a meeting of the Catalan regional parliament and a possible declaration of independence by Catalan leader Puigdemont, while Asian shares rise a the second day. The dollar declined for the 3rd day, its losses accelerating across the board amid growing concerns that Trump's tax reform is once again dead.

FX Week Ahead: Discretion And Common Sense Not Easy For "The Machines"

Core CPI is expected to rise from 1.7% to 1.8% as oil prices are expected to help lift the headline rate through 2.0%, but for the purposes of monetary policy current levels are strong enough to keep the Fed on their normalisation path.  Equity markets need a reality check, and it won't come from the level of balance sheet reduction now under way.

Dollar Surge Continues Ahead Of Jobs Report; Europe Dips As Catalan Fears Return

World stocks eased back from record highs and fell for the first time in eight days, as jitters about Catalonia’s independence push returned while bets on higher U.S. interest rates sent the dollar to its highest since mid August; S&P 500 futures were modestly in the red ahead of hurricane-distorted nonfarm payrolls data

US Trade Balance Shrinks More Than Expected As Deficits With China, EU Decline

The U.S. trade deficit shrank 2.7% in August 2017, declining from a downward revised $43.6 billion in July  to to $42.4 billion in August, better than the $42.7 billion expected, as exports increased by 0.4% to $195.3 billion and imports decreased by 0.1% to $238.1 billion. This was the smallest trade deficit since last September.

1987 Versus 2017: Will History Repeat Or Just Echo?

"...no single event can be blamed for the crash that occurred on October 19, 1987, rather a confluence of factors and events caused a rapid erosion in market confidence. The same can be said in 2017. No single factor indicates conclusively that a stock market correction is imminent, but the risks are out there and merit continued attention..."