As the pound resumes its post-flash-crash, post-May-Brexit-debate bounce, Goldman's Silvia Ardagna warns of much more downside pressure to come for Sterling with a cumulative depreciation of as much as 25% by year-end.
While the recently reported advance trade data showed a far better than expected recent trade picture for the US, today's official international trade data showed another modest disappointment, with the US trade deficit in August growing from an upward revised $39.6 billion to $40.7 billion, well above the expected $39.3 billion, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit decreased less than $0.1 billion in August to $60.3 billion. The services surplus decreased $1.2 billion in August to $19.6 billion.
Politics will continue to be in focus as US elections draw closer, with attention on post-debate polling numbers high. However, this week should see a pivot toward data with markets looking for evidence of the summer wobble in activity data reversing. In the US the main focus will be the NFP and ISM reports.
Protectionist sentiment is running high in the US, with both presidential candidates citing the need to shield workers from the alleged harmful effects of foreign trade. So it is perhaps ironic that the nation that has the most complaints against it for violating trade agreements is...
Is America still a serious nation? Consider. While U.S. elites were denouncing Donald Trump as unfit to serve for having compared Miss Universe 1996 to “Miss Piggy” of “The Muppets,” the World Trade Organization was validating the principal plank of his platform. America’s allies are cheating and robbing her blind on trade.
Global stocks continued their selloff this morning, driven by surging speculation about the liquidity, solvency and viability of Deutsche Bank, which plunged 9% after opening in German trading today, dropping to a new all time single-digit low of €9.90, while its default risk soared to new all time highs.
The week ahead is striking in the sheer number of central bank speakers, but with the Fed on hold until December and the BoJ’s new framework now revealed, focus turns squarely from central banks to US politics. The first US presidential debate at the start of the week will be a key focus.
The BOJ disappointed by unveiling a lackluster package that sent stocks lower and JPY higher initially - bigger ETF buying, maintains rates (no easing), maintains bond-buying (no easing), unveils "yield curve control" (steepens curve but crushes bank balance sheets through long bond MTM losses). But then offered some hope by noting that the monetary base may fluctuate to achieve yield-curve control (which markets liked as it implies the possibility of more easing).
With traders in the US arriving at their desks, the global selling appears to be accelerating and as Bloomberg notes, "a selloff in fixed income is starting to snowball into a global market rout" driven by what Reuters dubbed "growing concerns that global central banks' commitment to the post-crisis orthodoxy of super-low interest rates and asset purchase programs may be waning."