Trade Deficit

Key Events In The Coming Week: FOMC Minutes, GDP, BOC, OPEC And More

The key economic releases this week are the durable goods report and Q1 GDP revision on Friday. The minutes of the May FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2PM. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week

Trump-Xi Deal Could Fuel A U.S. LNG Boom

The glut is still here, and there is no gas-related OPEC to try and do anything about it, so prices are bound to stay low for a while longer. For how long, it is difficult to say. Capturing a piece of the Chinese market may be a challenge but the rewards to be reaped sure look like it’s worth it.

Presenting Goldman's "Worst-Case Survival Guide To Uncertainty, Taxes And Trade"

The juxtaposition of rising policy uncertainty vis a vis declining fear in risk assets raises "cause for pause" according to Goldman, which in its latest Portfolio Manager's Toolkit lays out the following "worst-case survival guide to uncertainty, taxes and trade" to help investors navigate once volatility comes back with a bang.

Panic! Like It’s 1837

180 years ago today, everyone panicked. On May 10, 1837, New York banks finally realized that the easy money they were lending was unsustainable, and demanded payment in “specie,” or hard money like gold and silver coin. They had previously been accepting paper currency that for every $5 was backed by only $1 in silver or gold.

Oil Fireworks Unsettle Global Markets Ahead Of Payrolls Report

With all eyes on crude, following last night's mini flash crash which sent WTI lower by 3% from just above $45 to under $43 in under 10 minutes, equity markets, generally quiet overnight, have taken on a secondary importance ahead of today's key risk event, the April payrolls report. In global equities, Asian and European stocks are lower, while S&P futures are little changed.

March Trade Deficit Shrinks To Smallest Since October

The US Trade Balance shrank to $43.7 billion in March, from an upward revised $43.8 billion in February, marking the month's deficit the smallest since October and less than the conesnus estimate of $44.5 billion. Imports declined by $1.7 billion, or 0.7%, to $234.7 billion, while exports dipped fractionally more, or 0.9%, even as the recently weaker dollar did little to boost US exports. Notably, the US trade deficit with China was $31.4 billion, followed by the European Union at $10 billion.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: FOMC, Payrolls, 131 S&P Companies Report

Besides the upcoming FOMC meeting on May 2-3, and French & Italian politics - the decisive runoff round of the French election takes place this Sunday - this week's releases are dominated by US payrolls expected to come around 170k. The busy release calendar continues with Norges bank and RBA meetings as well as global manufacturing PMIs.

The Relentless Push Towards War

"The only real constant to be found in both European and US politics is war. It doesn’t seem to matter who’s in office in the US - Republican/Democrat, conservative/liberal - there’s a war machine constantly running. My concern is that there's a building risk that one day that war machine is going to bust apart."

Weekend Reading: Trumponomics – End Of 100 Days

So, here we are at the end of the first 100-days, with little progress being made toward the things that count the most with investors. With asset prices currently priced for perfection, the real risk is that of “disappointment.” It will likely pay to “err to the side of caution” for now as the risk is clearly tilted against reward for now.

Global Stocks Pause Ahead Of GDP Report; Nasdaq Hits Fresh Record High

Despite yesterday's whopping beats by Amazon and Google which sent the Nasdaq to new record highs after hours, this morning futures S&P futures are little changed ahead of the closely watched Q1 GDP report, European stocks and Asian equities are slightly lower, oil is higher after Russia said it had reached the 300kbpd oil cut per the OPEC pact, and the dollar was modestly in the red.