Trade Deficit

Key Events And Earnings In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week include consumer confidence on Tuesday, the durable goods report on Wednesday, and the advance release of 2nd quarter GDP on Friday. The July FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2PM. There are several scheduled speeches from Fed officials this week. 197 S&P 500 companies are due to report (or 38% of the index market cap) with the notable names including Apple, Verizon, Facebook, Coca-Cola, Alphabet, Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Full Text Of Donald Trump's Convention Speech

To all Americans tonight, in all our cities and towns, I make this promise: We Will Make America Strong Again.
We Will Make America Proud Again.
We Will Make America Safe Again.
And We Will Make America Great Again.
THANK YOU.

US Trade Deficit Jumps In May As Stronger Dollar Puts A Lid On Exports

Confirming once again that a rising dollar is not good for US trade, moments ago the dept of commerce announced that the goods and services deficit was $41.1 billion in May, up $3.8 billion from $37.4 billion in April, and worse than the $40 billion expected. In fact, this was the first miss on expectations (a bigger than expected deficit) since October 2015.

Yuan Tumbles, Stabilizes After Reuters Report China Willing To Weaken Currency To 6.80

The biggest macro event overnight was a report out of Reuters that China's central bank is willing to let the yuan fall to 6.8 per dollar in 2016 to support the economy, which would mean the currency matching last year's record decline of 4.5 percent. The report promptly sent the offshore yuan tumbling, sliding much as 0.72% to 6.7021 per dollar, the lowest since January 11, however it promptly recovered losses following significant PBOC intervention in the open market.

After Brexit, A Trump Path To Victory

The English wish to remain who they are, and they do not want their country to become, in Theodore Roosevelt’s phrase, “a polyglot boarding house” for the world. From patriots of all nations, congratulations are in order. It will all begin to unravel now, over there, and soon over here.

Key Events In The Coming Week: All About Brexit

With global markets gyrating on every piece of news surrounding the Brexit drama, what’s the timetable for UK-related (and all other macro) events this week and beyond?

Toward Freedom: Will The UK Write History?

It is a rare moment in history. The British haven’t had their say since they voted to join the European Community back in 1975. What was initially thought of as a project to unite Europe into one common market, with the benefits of free trade and great promises of increasing national wealth, has mutated into a completely different entity. The British have, instead, found themselves being dragged into a regional economy of zero growth, a weak currency and heavily indebted states. You may have come across the arguments of both camps, but here we wish to address what a “Brexit” or “Bremain” scenario would mean for Britain.

Futures Slide On Rising Dollar As Global Bond Yields Hit Fresh Record Lows

Please do not adjust your screens: that off-green color you are seeing, that is not a malfunction. Yes, for the first time in six days, global stocks are lower with the MSCI all-country world index dipping from a 6 month high dragged down by lower European and Japanese equity markets, as the USDJPY dropped to a fresh five-week low while Treasury yields continued to hit new record lows because, as Bloomberg explains, "traders assessed the outlook for the global economy."

Futures Flat Following Friday's Jobs Fiasco: All Eyes On Yellen Again

Every ugly jobs report has a silver lining, and sure enough following Friday's disastrous jobs report, global mining and energy companies rallied alongside commodities after the jobs data crushed speculation the Fed would raise interest rates this month.  “The disappointing U.S. jobs report on Friday means that a summer Fed rate hike is off the table,” said Jens Pedersen, a commodities analyst at Danske Bank. “That has reversed the upwards trend in the dollar, supporting commodities on a broader basis. The market will look for confirmation in Yellen’s speech later today.”

Why This Friday's Payrolls Report Could See A Big Miss

When the main economic event this week hits this Friday at 8:30 am EDT, when the BLS releases the May payrolls report, Wall Street consensus wil be expecting a 160,000 print, a number which will have a big impact on market expectations for a Fed rate hike at the June or July FOMC meeting. However, consensus may be disappointed for one reason: the Verizon strike could chop off as much as 35,000 workers from the headline payrolls print.

Falling Chinese Demand Could Intensify The Oil War

The days of global reliance on Chinese demand are soon coming to end as seen by the decline in growth rate, decline in imports, and increase in service sector strength. The implications have already been great as stock markets across the developed world fell into peril when China's GDP growth rate fell below 7 percent. Withdrawal symptoms may last for a while until a recovery in demand alleviates some pressure. But global financial markets will have to adjust to a developed China, and as this "new normal" sets in, it will mean softer demand for commodities. China’s slowing demand for oil will lead to heightened competition for suppliers. For now, it appears that OPEC’s loss is Russia’s gain.

The Destabilizing Consequences Of Globalization

This globalization of price - for goods, services, credit and currencies - continually creates imbalances that fuel a perpetual instability that gradually impoverishes every sector other than global capital, which being mobile, can exploit the imbalances for its own profit. Who benefits over the longer term from the permanent instability and boom-and-bust cycles of this arrangement? Only those close to the credit spigots of central banks.

World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund Manager: "I Think Something Has Changed"

"The message that I am getting from the market, the “something” that has changed is that the US dollar is no longer a strong currency. Typically the US dollar falls when its economic cycle begins to roll over. Many of the indicators that I look at show the US is either in or heading for recession."