There is no way Fed policy can be win-win-win for all participants.
If the US economy were actually in economic recovery, would half of the 25-year-old population be living with parents? The real job situation is so poor that young people are unable to form households.
For those eager to cut to the chase and curious if overnight we have had another standard USDJPY ramp levitating US equity futures on low volume, the answer is yes. And since the USDJPY carry was patient enough, it managed to trigger the 2100 ES stops and as of this moment the futures were comfortably on the politically-correct side of 2100.
Against expectations of a $41bn deficit, September's trade deficit was practically in line at -$40.8bn, dramatically narrower than the revised higher (less negative) August print of $48.02bn as petroleum imports plunge to lowest since May 2004. With the smallest deficit since Feb 2015, The Fed is going to need a bigger boat to have enough debt to monetize when the looming rate hike drags the economy to the point of requiring more intervention.
Almost all serious analysts see a Terminal problem developing - "We will go from deflation to hyperinflation without seeing inflation." But hyperinflation is a political phenomenon. It is caused by those same authorities the masses think they can trust. When they are threatened, they will protect themselves by printing money on a scale we haven’t seen since the War Between the States (consumer prices in Richmond, Virginia, had risen 6,700% by the end of the war).
While understandably all eyes have been fixed on every monthly capital outflow update from China (even the ones that the Politburo is clearly massaging), few have noticed that one of the biggest total outflows currently in the global developed economy is taking place right in America's own back yard.
It's Back To The Future As Stocks, Futures Jump On The Latest Abysmal Economic News; China Tremors ReturnSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/21/2015 05:57 -0500
26 years ago, today was envisioned as day when cars flew, holographic movies were box office hits, hoverboards roamed, and people were fired by fax. None of the happened. Instead the only "back to the future" moment this morning is a deja vu one we have seen every day for the past 7 years: bad economic news leading to surging stocks.
If you needed further evidence that global growth and trade are in a veritable tailspin, look no further than the latest trade data from India, which shows that both exports and imports fell by 25% in September. That's ok though, we're sure it's nothing another rate cut can't fix...
Now that it is election season, we have all sorts of politicians running around proclaiming that America is the greatest nation on the entire planet. And just this week, Warren Buffett stated that “America’s great now — it’s never been greater“. But is it actually true? Is the United States still a great nation?
In September, the Port of Long Beach handled a near record 197,076 outbound empty boxes. "They accounted for nearly a third of all containers that moved through the port last month. September was the eighth straight month in which empty containers leaving Long Beach outnumbered those loaded with exports."
There can be little doubt that the massive, unprecedented surge in inventory accumulation (which counts positively to GDP) will eventually be liquidated. When it does the US enter recession, global dollar liquidity crashes, the value of dollar surges even higher, pulling EM further down and a world recession will be upon us again. In this scenario central banks panic...
"The Biggest Protest This Country Has Seen In Years" - Quarter Million Germans Protest Obama "Free Trade" DealSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/10/2015 09:56 -0500
250,000 Germans marched in Berlin today in protest against the planned "free trade" deal between Europe and the United States which they say is anti-democratic and will lower food safety, labor and environmental standards. "This is the biggest protest that this country has seen for many, many years," Christoph Bautz, director of citizens' movement Campact told protesters in a speech.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Permanently Locking In The Obama Agenda For 40% Of The Global EconomySubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2015 17:29 -0500
We have just witnessed one of the most significant steps toward a one world economic system that we have ever seen. Negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership have been completed, and if approved it will create the largest trading bloc on the planet. In this treaty, Barack Obama has thrown in all sorts of things that he never would have been able to get through Congress otherwise. And once this treaty is approved, it will be exceedingly difficult to ever make changes to it. So essentially what is happening is that the Obama agenda is being permanently locked in for 40 percent of the global economy.
"In response to today’s trade data, we have lowered our Q3 real GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 3.0% previously, and our forecast for Q4 real GDP growth has been trimmed from 3.0% to 2.3%. This has the effect of lowering 2015 real GDP growth, as measured on a Q4 over Q4 basis, from 2.6% to 2.1%."
As was previewed last week in the advance release of international trade data which showed a big drop in the US deficit, moments ago the BEA confirms as much, when it reported that in August the US trade deficit blew out from $41.8 billion to a whopping $48.3 billion, an increase of 15.6%, as a result of a $3.7 billion drop in exports, offset by a $2.8 billion increase in imports. The August deficit, driven in major part by the surge in the US deficit with China which shot out to a whopping $32.9 billion, was the worst monthly print since March, and the second worst trade data read going back to early 2012.