Trade Deficit

White House May Change Calculation Of US Trade Deficit, Boosting Trade War Odds

The Trump administration is considering changing the way the U.S. trade deficit is calculated, a shift that would make America's trade gap appear even greater than it has been in recent years, potentially making future trade skirmishes and wars with America's export-heavy trade partners far more likely. 

Carbon Taxes, Cow Farts, And Central Planning

In a centrally planned economy decisions on what to produce, how to produce, and for whom are taken primarily by the government. But not even Stalin or Roosevelt could come up with a rather exotic tool that can take central planning to a whole new level: carbon taxes.

US Trade Deficit In 2016 Was The Biggest In Four Years

While the good news is that for December the US trade deficit narrowed modestly to $44.3 billion, better than expected, the bad news is that for all of 2016, the goods and services deficit was $502.3 billion, up $1.9 billion from $500.4 billion in 2015, and the biggest deficit going back to 2012.

This Is What America's Top Trading Partners Export To The US

With concerns about protectionism rising, whether in the context of the Border Adjustment Tax or simple tariffs, Barclays has compiled a useful table sumamrizing what goods America's top trading partners export to the US for - mostly cheaper - consumption, compared to domestically produced equivalents.

Key Events In The Coming Week

It is a relatively light week in the US, with mainly trade balance, JOLTS and consumer credit data out. The key economic release this week is University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. 86 S&P 500 companies reporting, representing 11% of the index market cap

Carlson Capital: Border Adjustment Tax Would Lead To "Global Depression"

"If the border adjustment mechanism is implemented as proposed we think it will cause a global depression and a major equity market decline. It is still unclear whether it will happen but at the very least we expect that US trade policy will put downward pressure on global growth. When this becomes apparent commodities will correct meaningfully and we will reinvest in inflation beneficiaries."

The Honeymoon Is Over: Goldman Slams Trump's Economic Plan, No Longer Expects A Border Tax

"One month into the year, the balance of risks is somewhat less positive for three reasons. First, the difficulty congressional Republicans have had in moving forward on Obamacare; Second, while bipartisan cooperation looked possible following the election, the political environment appears to be as polarized as ever; Third, some of the recent actions by the Trump Administration could be disruptive for financial markets and the real economy." - Goldman Sachs

Two Wars Are About To Break Out Over Border Adjustment Tax

Two wars are set to break out over the Border Adjustment Tax: one is domestic and involves exporter vs importer alliances, and will soon shift into the Senate. The second war is one which would break out after the BAT is passed, and it would hammer America's biggest trading partners