Trade Deficit

Trade Deficit Grows More Than Expected As Stronger Dollar Pressures Exports

The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in October 2016 according to the U.S. Census Bureau, rising from $36.2 billion in September (revised lower from $36.4 billion) to $42.6 billion in October, higher than the $41.8BN consensus estimate, as exports decreased and imports increased which was to be expected following the recent surge in the US Dollar.

Key Events In The Coming Weeks: Italy Aftermath, ECB, ISM, Consumer Confidence

The key economic releases this week are ISM non-manufacturing on Monday and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday. Away from the US economic calendar, initially focus will be on the Italian referendum result, which appears to have been mostly digested by the market as bullish. It will then shift quickly to a critical ECB meeting.

GDP Hopes Slashed As Trade Deficit, Inventories Tumble In October

The resurrected hopes of lift-off velocity GDP growth in America suffered a double whammy this morning. A considerably bigger than expected trade deficit (-$62mm vs -$59mm exp) suggests Q4 GDP growth may take a hit and then wholesale inventories tumbled 0.4% MoM (the 2nd biggest plunge in over 3 years) notching more potential from economic growth hopes.

Key Events In The Coming Thanksgiving-Shortened Week

The key economic releases this week in the Thanksgiving-shortened week are the durable goods report and new home sales on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. Minutes from the November FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.

ObamaTrade Is Dead: White House Abandons TPP As EU Halts Trade Talks After Trump Victory

It appears the entire 'ObamaTrade' farce is collapsing under the weight of its secrecy and corporatocracy in the immediate aftermath of Trump's triumph. First this morning, Bloomberg reported that EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said EU-U.S. negotiations on a free-trade agreement are on hold, and now WSJ reports that the Obama administration on Friday gave up all hope of enacting its sweeping Pacific trade agreement, denting American prestige in the regions at a time when China is flexing its economic and military muscle.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week

The key economic releases this week include the personal income and spending report on Monday, ISM manufacturing on Tuesday, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The November FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2PM.

The Vexed Question Of The Dollar

There is little doubt that the rapid expansion of both dollar-denominated debt and monetary quantities since the financial crisis will lead us into a currency crisis. We just don’t know when, and the dollar is not alone. While the monetary role of gold in the future has yet to be determined by China, and it will be China or the markets that make the decision, for the moment it can be regarded as the ultimate insurance against global currency failure.

Key Events In The Coming Week

Looking at the week ahead, the US election enters the home stretch and politics will likely dominate the headlines, especially the closer races in Congress. Despite data being overshadowed by politics, there are some key US releases coming up, with the first estimate of Q3 GDP, the employment cost index and durable goods the main focus.

US Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Grows In August, Pressuring Q3 GDP

While the recently reported advance trade data showed a far better than expected recent trade picture for the US, today's official international trade data showed another modest disappointment, with the US trade deficit in August growing from an upward revised $39.6 billion to $40.7 billion, well above the expected $39.3 billion, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit decreased less than $0.1 billion in August to $60.3 billion. The services surplus decreased $1.2 billion in August to $19.6 billion.