Trade Deficit

Frontrunning: December 12

  • Parties Make Final Push Ahead of Dramatic Alabama Senate Race (WSJ)
  • Oil hits two-and-a-half year high on pipeline shutdown, stocks take breather (Reuters)
  • Alabama drama nears an explosive end (The Hill)
  • Moore, Jones Expose Rural-Urban Divide That Defines Alabama Race (BBG)
  • The Force Behind Bitcoin’s Meteoric Rise: Millions of Asian Investors (WSJ)

US Futures, Global Shares, Dollar All Jump On Brexit, Basel News, Averted US Shutdown; Payrolls Loom

U.S. equity index futures have bounced on the last day of the week, along with European and Asian shares, oil and the dollar following overnight news that the UK and EU have reached a successful conclusion on Phase 1 of Brexit negotiations, that Congress has punted on the government shutdown for another 2 weeks until December 22, and ahead of the November nonfarm payrolls data.

Asian Market Rout Goes Global On Tech, Tax And Government Shutdown Tremors

A selloff which started in Asia, driven by renewed liquidation of Chinese and Hong Kong tech stocks and accelerated by weaker metal prices which pushed the Shanghai Composite below a key support and to 4 month lows, spread to Europe and the rest of the world as investors continued to lock in year-end gains among the best performing assets amid a broad risk-off mood.

Key Events In The Coming Week: Jobs, Brexit, PMI, IP And More

The first full week of December is shaping up as rather busy, with such Tier 1 data in the US as the payrolls report, durable goods orders and trade balance. We also get UK PMI data and GDP, retail sales across the Euro Area, as well as central bank meetings including Australia RBA and BoC monetary policy meeting.

US Futures, World Stocks, Bitcoin All Hit Record Highs

US equity futures continued their push higher overnight (ES +0.1%), and the VIX is 1.5% lower and back under 10, after yesterday's blistering surge in US stocks which jumped 1%, the most since Sept. 11. The biggest mover of the session however was bitcoin, which topped $10,000 in a buying frenzy which saw it go from $9,000 to $10,000 in one day, and which is on its way to rising above $11,000.

Key Events In The Coming Week: Senate Tax Vote; Euro Inflation; GDP; OPEC, Fed Speakers

It's a busy week as traders return from the long Thanksgiving holiday, with inflation releases in the Eurozone and Japan. We'll also get the second estimate of US GDP, housing data and ISM manufacturing, UK monetary aggregates and PMIs in China. Finally, the Russia-OPEC meeting takes place in Vienna on November 30, while the Senate hearing of Fed chair nominee Powell and Yellen's testimony before Congress will be closely watched.

FX Weekly Preview: EUR Bursts Higher Again As Year-End Call For 1.2000 Return

If we do push past 1.2000 next week, sellers will be looking to fade this on some of these factors, and we also have to factor in the Dec Fed hike, which is an opportunity for the FOMC not to miss as normalisation is still very much on the agenda, albeit slightly more gradual than before.