Trade Deficit

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 31





  • Futures rally after BOJ ramps up stimulus (Reuters), Japan's central bank shocks markets with more easing as inflation slows (Reuters)
  • Kuroda Jolts Markets With Assault on Deflation Mindset (BBG)
  • Japan Mega-Pension Shifts to Stocks (WSJ)
  • Russia Raises Interest Rates (WSJ)
  • Oil-Price Drop Has Saudi Officials Divided (WSJ)
  • Not anymore, the BOJ is here: Fed Exit Could Spark Slump in All Markets, ATP CEO Says (BBG)
  • Wal-Mart Weighs Matching Online Prices from Amazon (WSJ)
  • Euro-Area Inflation Picks Up From Five-Year Low on Stimulus (BBG)
  • Big Banks Brace for Penalties in Probes  (WSJ)
  • Ex-UBS Trader Defense Could Be Threat to U.S. Forex Cases (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Forget "Free Trade" - Focus On Capital Flows





In a world dominated by mobile capital, mobile capital is the comparative advantage. Mobile capital can borrow billions of dollars (or equivalent) in one nation at low rates of interest and then use that money to outbid domestic capital for assets in another nation with few sources of credit. Mobile capital can overwhelm the local political system, buying favors and cutting deals, all with cash borrowed at near-zero interest rates. Mobile capital can buy up and exploit resources and cheap labor until the resource is depleted or competition cuts profit margins. At that point, mobile capital closes the factories, fires the employees and moves on. Where is the "free trade" in a world in which the comparative advantage is always held by mobile capital?
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Kuroda Comedy Hour (Or Has The World Gone Mad... Again?)





The head of Japan's Central Bank kept a straight face while unleashing a torrent of comedic genius this evening with regard the Japanese economy and its monetary and fiscal policy success... Enjoy...

 
GoldCore's picture

India Gold Demand Surges 450% and Bank of Russia Demand At 15 Year High





The seemingly insatiable appetite of the growing Indian middle class for gold is causing the government in India to again consider imposing sanctions on the importing of gold. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How Japanese Hyperinflation Starts (In 1 Chart)





The Japanese Yen's real effective exchange rate (REER) has collapsed to the weakest since 1982, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Simply put, REER is a trade-weighted measure of Yen strength (or weakness) against, in this case, 59 trading partners; and as the nation posts an unprecedented 27th straight month of trade deficits, Bloomberg reports MUFJ indicates "a structural shift" has taken place. As MUFJ chief FX strategist warns, "If the trade deficit doesn’t noticeably narrow from here, the yen’s real effective rate could fall to levels never seen before," and, ominously, "from a supply and demand perspective, yen selling for foreign currency by Japanese importers will just continue endlessly." And Japan becomes Venezuela...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

If The Oil Plunge Continues, "Now May Be A Time To Panic" For US Shale Companies





It would truly be the crowning achievement of Obama's career if, amazingly, he manages to bankrupt the US shale "miracle" next.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Storm Into The Green, 20 Points Off The Lows; NY Fed's Chicago Office Kept Busy All Night





With futures slamming the lows at their open yesterday evening, touching levels not seen since May, and with the EuroStoxx 50 officialy entering correction just hours ago, down 10% from the June highs, many were wondering if the NY Fed's Chicago Trading Desk, aka Overnight Ramp Capital LLC, would be put in damage control duty and send futures right back to unchanged (because with new Ebola patient alerts springing up everywhere from Boston to Los Angeles, the pandemic is clearly contained). The answer, with a whopping 20 point levitation on no volume, and futures which are pointing now well into the green (not to mention the Eurostoxx rebounding off the lows and now green too), is a resounding yes (thank the  AUDJPY, which is over 100 pips off the overnight lows and back over 94).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

As Fracking Enters A Bear Market, A Question Emerges: Is The Shale Boom Built On A Sea Of Lies?





"The audience in the ballroom of the Hotel Derek included engineers for shale drillers such as Marathon, Continental and Rice. Pamela Allen, a senior reserves coordinator for Marathon, raised her hand and told Lee that she was worried that using outsized forecasts in public presentations would run afoul of the SEC and “come back to haunt us.” Singhania, the Marathon spokeswoman, said she was unable to comment on Allen’s remarks without seeing a transcript. “If a lot of people get burned -- and I think a lot of people can and will be burned -- by these numbers in the investor presentations, there may be a push by investors to get the SEC to do something about it,” Lee said during the workshop."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Not Just The Largest Economy – Here Are 26 Other Ways China Has Surpassed America





In terms of purchasing power, China now has the largest economy on the entire planet, but that is not the only area where China has surpassed the United States. China also accounts for more total global trade than the U.S. does, China consumes more energy than the U.S. does, and China now manufactures more goods than the U.S. does. In other words, the era of American economic dominance is rapidly ending.

 
GoldCore's picture

Silver “Particularly Cheap” as “Blood On The Commodity Streets”





Relative to stock market indices, broad commodity indices are now at their lowest levels since the late-1990s dot com boom. Key commodity price ratios, such as those between precious and industrial metals, are already at levels associated with financial crises such as that of 2008. In other words, there is already ‘blood on the commodity streets’, presenting investors and commodity traders with potentially attractive opportunities.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

10 Reasons Why Reserve Currency Status Is An "Exorbitant Burden"





This may be excessively optimistic on my part, but there seems to be a slow change in the way the world thinks about reserve currencies. For a long time it was widely accepted that reserve currency status granted the provider of the currency substantial economic benefits. For much of my career I pretty much accepted the consensus, but as one starts to think more seriously about the components of the balance of payments, it is clear Keynes wad right in his call for a hybrid currency when he recognized that once the reserve currency was no longer constrained by gold convertibility, the world needed an alternative way to prevent destabilizing imbalances from developing. On the heels of Treasury Economist Kenneth Austin and former-Obama chief economist Jared Bernstein discussing the end of the USD as a reserve currency, Michael Pettis summarizes 10 reasons the USD's reserve status has become an 'exorbitant burden'.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Can Market Forces Prevail: The Eurozone’s Unresolved Situation





Can market forces prevail in the Eurozone? With another round of central bank intervention coming four plus years after the start of the Eurozone debt crisis, this is a question worth considering, at a time when the Southern Eurozone members - Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal, which collectively account for over 30% of the GDP of the early adopters of the Euro as a whole – continue to struggle. This is a complex topic for sure, but a simple economic indicator can be used to help frame the situation.

 
GoldCore's picture

Gold Demand In India Triples As China Launches Global Gold Bourse Tomorrow





The Death Of The Indian and Chinese Gold Markets Has Been Greatly Exaggerated ... 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why Scotland Has All The Leverage, In One Chart





As always, the bottom line is about leverage and bargaining power. It is here that, miraculously, things once again devolve back to, drumroll, oil, and the fact that an independent Scotland would keep 90% of the oil revenues! As we showed several days ago, Scotland's oil may be the single biggest wildcard in the entire Independence movement. It is this oil that as SocGen's Albert Edwards shows earlier this morning, is what gives Scotland all the leverage.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How The China Boom Unravels: One Person At A Time





The dashing of youthful expectations of open-ended wealth and security for everyone with a college degree is highly combustible when combined with a popping real estate bubble, systemic corruption, the implosion of a shadow banking credit bubble and the impending global recession.

 
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