Trade Deficit

The Scariest Forecast For Treasury Bulls

Assuming Deutsche Bank is correct, the result would be the scariest forecast bond bulls have seen in years: a 10-Year TSY whose yield fades all gains attained during the past decade, in the span of just two short years, hitting 4.5% in early 2019. The adverse implications from such a fast, steep move on all asset classes, not just bonds, would be devastating.

Futures Unchanged In Thin Pre-Holiday Tape; Italian Bank Bailout Lifts European Shares

European stocks halted two days of declines, with the Stoxx 600 fractionally in the green and Italy’s bonds climbing after Monte Paschi requested a bailout and Italy pledged to provide support for its other ailing lenders. S&P futures were little changed among extremely thin volumes while Chinese stocks dropped amid concerns on higher borrowing costs.

Why Trump's "Border Tax Proposal" Is The "Most Important Thing Nobody Is Talking About"

While the market, and various pundits and economists have been mostly focused on the still to be disclosed details of Trump's infrastructure spending aspects of his fiscal plan, "one of the least talked about but possibly most important tax shifts in the history of the United States" is, according to DB, House Speaker Paul Ryan’s and President-elect Trump’s “border tax adjustment” proposal.

What's Driving Rates?

While the bump in rates has been fastened to the recent election of Donald Trump, due to hopes of a deficit expansion program (read: more debt) and infrastructure spending which should foster economic growth and inflation, it doesn’t explain the global selling of U.S. Treasuries.

Trump Reignites China Diplomatic Spat, Says Not Bound By "One China" Policy

"I fully understand the 'one China' policy, but I don't know why we have to be bound by a 'one China' policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade. We're being hurt very badly by China with devaluation, with taxing us heavy at the borders when we don't tax them, with building a massive fortress in the middle of the South China Sea."

Longest Winning Streak For Global Stocks Since September On Monte Paschi Bailout Hopes, ECB Optimism

Global stocks extended the longest winning streak since September, with Asia up 0.8% and Europe rising 0.7% while bonds and credit markets strengthened amid hopes that the European Central Bank will prolong quantitative easing, while optimism an Italian bailout of Monte Paschi will prevent European bank contagion, has pushed European financial stocks higher. US equity futures were little changed.