Trade Deficit

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Frontrunning: December 11





  • Futures down sharply as oil hits seven-year low (Reuters)
  • Oil slides to new seven-year low as IEA warns of worse glut (Reuters)
  • But... but... they all said... Cheap Oil Gives Little Help to U.S. Spending (WSJ)
  • Disappearances in China Highlight Ruling Party Detention System (BBG)
  • China’s Credit Rebounds as Stimulus Helps Boost Loan Demand (BBG)
  • Junk Fund’s Demise Fuels Concern Over Bond Rout (WSJ)
 
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After Vicious Rollercoaster Session, Global Stocks Flat, US Futures Stage Tepid Rebound In Illiquid Chaos





After yesterday's rollercoaster session in both the S&P and in oil, where initially stocks soared alongside oil, only to promptly tumble as stops were taken out and as the refiners' inventory strategy was exposed after the DOE's latest weekly numbers were released, it has been a quieter session so far, though maybe not for China where stocks jumped at the open only to fizzle and close at the lows in what appears to be ever less intervention by the market manipulating "National Team."

 
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European, Asian Stocks Jump As Iron Ore Joins Oil Below $40 For First Time Since May 2009





With Draghi's Friday comments, which as we noted previously were meant solely to push markets higher, taking place after both Europe and Asia closed for the week, today has been a session of catch up for both Asian and Europe, with Japan and China up 1% and 0.3% respectively, and Europe surging 1.4%, pushing government bond yields lower as the dollar resumes its climb on expectations that Draghi will jawbone the European currency lower once more, which in turn forced Goldman to announce two hours ago that it is "scaling back our expectation for Euro downside."

 
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European Stocks, US Futures Surge On Last Minute Hopes Of "Extraordinary Policy Easing" By Mario Draghi





Yesterday's market swoon which unwound all of Tuesday's gains on concerns about a hawkish Fed and fears about terrorism in the US, are now completely forgotten, and have been replaced with the latest daily round of pre-ECB euphoria, driven by hopes that Mario Draghi will announce even more dovish details to Europe's Q€ 2 than just a 10 bps rate cut and a boost to QE more than €10 billion, both of which have been already priced in.

 
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And The First To Admit Defeat In Currency Wars Is...





S.AFRICA GOVERNOR KGANYAGO SAYS NO AMOUNT OF CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION WOULD STEM MARKET-DRIVEN RAND MOVES.

 
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The Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, & Triffin's Paradox





There is no way Fed policy can be win-win-win for all participants.

 
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Paul Craig Roberts Rages At "Another Phony Jobs Number"





If the US economy were actually in economic recovery, would half of the 25-year-old population be living with parents? The real job situation is so poor that young people are unable to form households.

 
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S&P Futures Spike Back Over 2100 On Central Banks, Yen Carry Levitation, China Bull Market





For those eager to cut to the chase and curious if overnight we have had another standard USDJPY ramp levitating US equity futures on low volume, the answer is yes. And since the USDJPY carry was patient enough, it managed to trigger the 2100 ES stops and as of this moment the futures were comfortably on the politically-correct side of 2100.

 
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US Trade Deficit Narrows 15%, Smallest Since Feb 2015 As Petroleum Imports Collapse





Against expectations of a $41bn deficit, September's trade deficit was practically in line at -$40.8bn, dramatically narrower than the revised higher (less negative) August print of $48.02bn as petroleum imports plunge to lowest since May 2004. With the smallest deficit since Feb 2015, The Fed is going to need a bigger boat to have enough debt to monetize when the looming rate hike drags the economy to the point of requiring more intervention.

 
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What's Next: Deflation, Inflation, Or Hyperinflation?





Almost all serious analysts see a Terminal problem developing - "We will go from deflation to hyperinflation without seeing inflation." But hyperinflation is a political phenomenon. It is caused by those same authorities the masses think they can trust. When they are threatened, they will protect themselves by printing money on a scale we haven’t seen since the War Between the States (consumer prices in Richmond, Virginia, had risen 6,700% by the end of the war).

 
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Forget China: This Extremely "Developed" Country Just Suffered Its Biggest Money Outflow Ever





While understandably all eyes have been fixed on every monthly capital outflow update from China (even the ones that the Politburo is clearly massaging), few have noticed that one of the biggest total outflows currently in the global developed economy is taking place right in America's own back yard.

 
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It's Back To The Future As Stocks, Futures Jump On The Latest Abysmal Economic News; China Tremors Return





26 years ago, today was envisioned as day when cars flew, holographic movies were box office hits, hoverboards roamed, and people were fired by fax. None of the happened. Instead the only "back to the future" moment this morning is a deja vu one we have seen every day for the past 7 years: bad economic news leading to surging stocks.

 
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The Latest Evidence That Global Trade Has Collapsed: India's Exports/Imports Plunge By 25%





If you needed further evidence that global growth and trade are in a veritable tailspin, look no further than the latest trade data from India, which shows that both exports and imports fell by 25% in September. That's ok though, we're sure it's nothing another rate cut can't fix...

 
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America #1? 36 Facts That Prove That The United States Is An 'Exceptional' Nation





Now that it is election season, we have all sorts of politicians running around proclaiming that America is the greatest nation on the entire planet. And just this week, Warren Buffett stated that “America’s great now — it’s never been greater“. But is it actually true? Is the United States still a great nation?

 
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