Trade Deficit

Frontrunning: July 18

  • U.S. Republicans left scrambling after health bill sinks again (Reuters); Republicans Give Up on Health-Care Reform, Now Seek Straight Repeal (BBG)
  • Trump Blames Democrats and a ‘Few Republicans’ for Health-Bill Wreck (BBG)
  • House Republicans Set Out Plan to Rewrite Tax Code (WSJ)
  • House GOP Budget Ignores Trump’s Cuts to Domestic Agencies (BBG)
  • House Republicans unveil 2018 budget with tax reform instructions (Reuters)

White House Lays Out Nafta Renegotiating Strategy

The US today released a 17-page outline of a "tough negotiating strategy" to revise the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, meant to reduce trade imbalances with Mexico and Canada and boost exports of everything from farm goods to financial services while for the first time saying it would seek to deter currency manipulation by trading partners.

Global Stocks Rise Amid Strong Economic Data; Yen Drops To 2 Month Low As Oil Resumes Slide

In a quiet overnight session, S&P 500 futures are fractionally in the green (2,426, +0.2%) with European and Asian stocks as oil drops second day after an initial ramp higher amid speculation that LIbya and Nigeria may be asked to cap their production. Nasdaq 100 Index are again higher, following the biggest daily advance in more than a week, up 0.4% as of 6:20 a.m. in New York.

Bond Rout Fades With Futures Flat Ahead Of Payrolls; Pound, Yen, Oil Tumble

S&P futures are little changed following yesterday's rout even as Asian and European markets continued selling; the pound slid on poor factory data, the yen tumbled after the BOJ intervened to stabilize the JGB bond market, precious metals flash crashed early in the session, while the selloff in oil accelerated despite yesterday's massive inventory draw, although at least yesterday's sharp bond tantrum has stabilized.

U.S. Trade Balance Improves In May As Deficit With China, Europe Shrinks

Coming in largely as expected, the U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in May 2017 from an unrevised $47.6 billion in April (revised) to $46.5 billion in May, fractionaly worse than consensus expectations of $46.3 billion, as exports increased and imports decreased.

A War On Globalism

Have you ever wondered why Donald Trump is so deeply hated by the elite? 

Key Events In The Coming Holiday-Shortened Week: Payrolls, Fed Minutes, ISM, G-20

The key economic releases this week are ISM manufacturing on Monday, ISM non-manufacturing on Thursday, and the employment report on Friday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Fed Vice Chair Fischer on Thursday. The minutes from the June FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Schaeuble Warns US Pullback Could "End Our Liberal World Order"

“I doubt whether the United States truly believes that the world order would be equally sound if China or Russia were to fill the gaps left by the US, and if China and Russia were simply given a free hand to dominate the spheres of influence that they have defined for themselves"...

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: US Payrolls; Eurozone Inflation And Fed Speakers

Focus in this holiday-shortened week will turn to US data, especially NFP, Fed speakers and Eurozone inflation. UK PMIs will also draw attention as elections approach. We also get GDP data from Canada, Sweden and Switzerland. On Monday, Euro FX and bond markets will be on Mario Draghi alert on Monday as the ECB president speaks to the European parliament.