Trade Deficit

China Imports Spike As Lunar New Year Skew Creates Biggest Trade Deficit In 3 Years

When the headline prints hit tonight on China's trade data, offshore Yuan dipped and ripped as China faced its first trade deficit in 3 years (-$60bn vs +172.5bn exp) with imports exploding 44.7% YoY (and exports missing expectations dramatically). But it appears the economists forgot about this year's lunar new year holiday falling in January (vs Feb last year) and skewing all the data.

This Won't End Well; Never Has

Real economic activity has tumbled back to its weakest level since the election as surveys' hope soars near record highs.

Trump Won't Be Happy: US Records Biggest Trade Deficit In 5 Years

In a report that will be closely scrutinized by the trade-sensitive Trump administration, today the Department of Commerce announced that the January trade deficit surged in January 2017, jumping from $44.3 billion in December (revised) to $48.5 billion in January, as imports increased more than exports.This was the biggest trade deficit going back to early 2012.

Ukraine Has Lost Billions On The Trade Agreement With The EU In Year One

The Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) between Ukraine and the European Union, which came into force on 1 January 2016, was aimed at helping the East European economy to recover; however, the results after the first year fell far short of Ukraine’s expectations.

Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On Payrolls

The key economic release this week is the employment report on Friday, which as Janet Yellen noted in her speech on Friday, is the only economic event (together perhaps with the CPI report on April 15), that could potentially derail a now practically guaranteed rate hike.

It's Trump's Party, Now

Tuesday’s speech established Trump as the man in charge. But how loyal to him and his program will be the “deep state,” which dominates this city that gave Trump only 4 percent of its votes and, paranoically, believes him to be an agent of Vladimir Putin? The Trump-Beltway wars have only just begun.

India Gold Demand Just Surged 82%

After a disappointing drop in demand in 2016, Reuters reports that India's February gold imports surged to 50 tonnes, up more than 82% from a year ago, on pent-up jeweller demand and as retail consumers ramped up purchases for weddings.

Yield Curve Collapse & The Fed's "Surprising Economic Strength"

As Lael Brainard piled on The Fed's sudden utter hawkishness, following Dudley, Harker, Kaplan, and Williams, we noticed a common thread behind the need to hike rates in March - each implicitly or explicitly noted America's "surprisingly strong economy." This led to a stunning WTF moment...

President Trump's Address To Congress: Key Highlights And Full Text

"From now on, America will be empowered by our aspirations, not burdened by our fears –- inspired by the future, not bound by the failures of the past –- and guided by our vision, not blinded by our doubts. I am asking all citizens to embrace this Renewal of the American Spirit. I am asking all members of Congress to join me in dreaming big, and bold and daring things for our country."

Q1 GDP At Risk As Trade Deficit Balloons Near 9 Year Highs

On the heels of a disappointing revised Q4 GDP print, the US trade balance for January printed a $69.2 billion deficit. This is the second largest deficit since August 2008 (slightly smaller than the March 2015 plunge) as the dollar surge has not helped.

With All Eyes On Trump Tonight, US Futures, Global Stocks Hug The Flatline

With traders focused on President Trump's address to Congress tonight where he is expected to outline his economic priorities and provide plan details, European stocks are little changed for a second day and Asian stocks decline modestly as U.S. futures trade around the flatline. Oil declines, while the dollar is little changed.

Key Events In The Coming US

The main focus this week will be on President Trump's speech to Congress and Chair Yellen's speech which is the last before the blackout period. US durable goods, ISM, the BoC rate decision, EZ CPI, UK PMIs and a busy calendar in Australia & Scandinavia also coming up.