Trade Deficit

Q4 GDP Misses Big As Exports Tumble: US Economy Grows A Paltry 1.6% In 2016

It appears that Deutsche Bank's warning that the global economy is about to roll over was spot on, because moments ago the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that GDP in Q4 rose only 1.9%, barely above the lowest forecast of 1.7%, and below both the consensus estimate of 2.2% and the whisper estimate of 2.5%-2.6%.

Trump’s Inauguration: A Typical Norwegian Response To A Historical Event

Instead of being happy for America on our historic day, The Norwegian “America Experts” (Nettavisen in Norwegian) blasted him as fierce and divisive. VG, the leading Norwegian paper referred to the speech as dark. Nowhere, in their analysis, was a counter-thesis, offering the underlying reasons for Trump’s statements. No acknowledgment of our decline over the past generation, despite the technological gain and offshoring.

Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On Trump's First Actions

The key economic releases this week are durable goods and GDP on Friday. On the political front, the focus will be is on the first actions of the Trump administration including moves on TPP and NAFTA. There are no scheduled Fed speeches this week.

Trump Takes On The Deep State

"The deep state" is shorthand for a force within Washington that is able to guide the US' ship of state over periods of time longer than presidential terms, and at times despite the stated intentions of elected officials. If Trump has indeed embroiled himself in a conflict with this entity, then, what does that mean for his policy plans and for the post-Inauguration markets?

RBC: "Commence Pain Trade"

Commence 'pain trade.' Expect there to be significant buy-side performance pain today with regards to the below key “long USD”-linked “US reflation” trades (as quoted above) seeing real capitulatory / unwind flows.

Here Are The Winners And Losers From Trump's "Border Tax Adjustment"

Potential Winners: Companies with a majority of their input costs contained within the U.S; Potentially lower tax rate of 20% on sales and full deduction for input costs; U.S. Exporters: as export revenues are not subject to U.S. tax.
Potential Losers:Products, services, and intangibles imported into the U.S.; Automakers, Oil and Gas, to Retailers can be impacted; U.S. Multinationals that have relied on aggressive tax planning to shift earning overseas.

To RBC, This Is The Single Largest Risk To The Market Right Now

The US Dollar is the “grand unifying theory asset” for nearly any and all “profile” global macro or thematic equities trades in the marketplace right now, as it represents investors being long this “new” version of “economic growth.”  As such, performance is significantly tied to the direction in the US Dollar.