Trade Deficit

Asia Confidential's picture

A Wake-Up Call For Asia





Recent problems in Asia ex-Japan appear solvable. But the time for reform is now if the region's to take the next leap forward in its economic development.

 
Asia Confidential's picture

Is The U.S. Dollar Set To Spike?





There's a growing view that America's energy boom will result in a higher U.S. dollar in coming years. There are some key holes in the argument though.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 5





  • BOE Leaves Policy Unchanged as Carney’s Guidance Assessed (BBG)
  • Surprise or not, U.S. strikes can still hurt Assad (Reuters)
  • Samsung Gear: A Smartwatch in Search of a Purpose (BusinessWeek)
  • 'Jumbo' Mortgage Rates Fall Below Traditional Ones  (WSJ)
  • Capital Unease Again Bites Deutsche Bank  (WSJ)
  • Technical snafus confuse charges for Obamacare plans (Reuters)
  • JPMorgan subject of obstruction probe in energy case (Reuters)
  • U.S. Car Sales Soar to Pre-Slump Level (WSJ) - i.e., to just when the market crashed
  • BoJ lifts assessment of Japan’s economic health (FT)
  • Dead Dog in Reservoir Helps Drive Venezuelans to Bottled Water (BBG)
  • Russia Boosts Mediterranean Force as U.S. Mulls Syria Strike (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Bond Blowout Starts Event Extravaganza Day





Just when the market thought it had priced in a new equilibrium without (or with - it is not quite clear) a Syria war, here comes Thursday with a data dump that will make one's head spin. Central bankers are once again on parade starting overnight, when the BOJ announced no change to its QE program and retaining its monetary base target of JPY270 trillion. The parade continues with both the BOE and ECB, the latter of which is expected to address the recent pick up in Eonia rates and take praise for the recent very much unsustainable "recovery" in the periphery even as Germany continues to slide lower (this morning's factory orders plunged 2.7% on exp. -1.0%), which in turn lead the Bund to pass above 2.0% for the first time since March 2011. Speaking of bonds blowing out, the US 10Y is now just 6 bps away from 3.00%, the widest since July 2011, and likely to breach the support level, taking out a boatload of stops and leading to the next big step spike in rates as the second selling scramble ensues. And just to keep every algo on its binary toes, today we also get a NFP preview with the ADP private payrolls at 8:15 am (Exp. 180K, down from 200K), Initial Claims (Exp. 330K), Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs (Exp. 1.60% and 0.9%), Factory Orders (Exp. -3.4%), Non-mfg ISM  (Exp. 55), Final Durable Goods, EIA Nat Gas and DOE Crude Inventories, oh and the G-20 meeting in St. Petersburg where Putin and Obama are not expected to share much pleasantries, and where John Kerry's swiftboat may not be allowed to dock.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Worse Than Expected US Trade Deficit Spikes In July, Trade Gaps With China, EU Rise To Record





When last week the revised Q2 GDP print was announced, which beat expectations solidly driven entirely by a surge in net exports, we said that "with China on the rocks and tightening, the Emerging Markets in free fall, and Europe still a net exporter (so not benefiting the US), anyone hoping this trade led-recovery will be sustainable, will be disappointed." Sure enough, the first trade data update for the third quarter as of July, confirmed just this, as the trade deficit widenedfrom a revised $34.5 billion deficit, to a substantially larger monthly deficit, amounting to $39.1 billion. This was $500MM more than consensus expected, or $38.6 billion, and it means that as we predicted, the downward revisions to Q3 tracking estimates are about to start rolling in, trimming ~0.1%-0.2% from US GDP for this current quarter. Specifically, imports for the month rose from $225.1 billion to $228.6 billion while exports fell from $190.5 billion to $189.5 billion. But perhaps most notable is that in July, the US trade deficit with China and the EU rose to a record of $30.1 billion (from $26.6bn last month) and $13.9 billion (from $7.1bn) respectively.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: America's Energy Boom And The Rising U.S. Dollar





The petrodollar regime - that oil is bought and sold globally in U.S. dollars - is easy to understand. It boils down to these two principles: 1. Petroleum is the lifeblood of the global economy; and 2. Any nation that can print its own currency and trade the conjured money for oil has an extraordinary advantage over nations that cannot trade freshly created money for oil. This is why many analysts trace much of America's foreign policy back to defending the petrodollar regime. America's energy boom is creating consequences for the value of the dollar.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

33 Shocking Facts Which Show How Badly The Economy Has Tanked Under Obama





Barack Obama has been running around the country taking credit for an "economic recovery", but the truth is that things have not gotten better under Obama.  Compared to when he first took office, a smaller percentage of the working age population is employed, the quality of our jobs has declined substantially and the middle class has been absolutely shredded.  If we are really in the middle of an "economic recovery", why is the homeownership rate the lowest that it has been in 18 years?  Why has the number of Americans on food stamps increased by nearly 50 percent while Obama has been in the White House?  Why has the national debt gotten more than 6 trillion dollars larger during the Obama era?  Obama should not be "taking credit" for anything when it comes to the economy.  In fact, he should be deeply apologizing to the American people.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Private Banker: "Is There Any Good News?"





“Is there any good news?”

You bet.

The good news is that this fraudulent system of unchecked, unbacked paper currency is finally coming to an end.

 
testosteronepit's picture

When “QE Infinity” Turns Into A Pipedream: Hot Money Evaporates, Rout Follows – See Emerging Markets





The Fed and other central banks have accomplished a huge feat: a worldwide tsunami of hot money. Which is now receding.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

10 Year Bond Shakedown Continues: Rate Hits 2.873%





It's all about rates this largely newsless morning, which have continued their march wider all night, and moments ago rose to 2.873% - a fresh 2 year wide and meaning that neither Gross, nor the bond market, is nowhere near tweeted out. As DB confirms, US treasuries are front and center of mind at the moment.... the 10yr UST yield is up another 4bp at a fresh two year high of 2.87% in Tokyo trading, adding to last week’s 20bp selloff. As it currently stands, 10yr yields are up by more than 120bp from the YTD lows in early May and more than 80bp higher since Bernanke’s now infamous JEC testimony. We should also note that the recent US rates selloff has been accompanied by a rapid steepening in the rate curve. Indeed, the 2s/10s curve is at a 2 year high of 250bp and the 2s/30s and 2s/5s are also at close to their highest level in two years.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Indonesia Leads Sea Of Red Across AsiaPac Stocks (And US Treasuries) Following Dismal Data





UPDATE: Everbright Securities (the Chinese fat-finger stock brokerage) just announced they SNAFU'd again - this time by 'mistakenly' selling 10Y government bonds at 4.2%

AsiaPac and EM markets are awash with red this evening. While Japanese stocks are very modestly higher on the bad-news-is-good-news that Abe's economy saw the third largest trade deficit on record (dramatically worse at over JPY1tn than expectations of JPY773), most of the rest of the overnight markets (including US Treasuries) are in the red. From plunging Aussie vehicle sales data (-3.5% from +4.0% in the prior month, to a -0.3% QoQ print for Thailand's GDP (confirming recession as opposed to expectations of a +0.2% gain); and from Indonesian current account deficit (and currency depreciation) concerns smashing stocks -4.0% (most since Oct 2011) to the ongoing collapse in India currency, bond, and now equity markets, all is not well ahead of the European open. Chinese stocks are also down for the fourth day in a row as Friday's fat-finger concerns drive brokers down hard and spike 7-day repo rates.

 
Pivotfarm's picture

UK: Export Surge





The UK economy is recovery at its best rate since 2010 today with figures that are released by the British government via the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Week That Was: August 5th - 9th 2013





Succinctly summarizing the positive and negative news, data, and market events of the week...

 
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