• Tim Knight from...
    12/21/2014 - 09:37
    The five remaining equity bears on Earth are all saying the same thing: "We'll get 'em in 2015." To which I ask: why? What's going to change?

Trade War

Tyler Durden's picture

Things That Make You Go Hmmm... Like Japan's Inevitable Apocalypse





Kuroda has fired the shot that looks likely to trigger the next phase of the crazy monetary experiment we’ve all been living in for the last five years. Unfortunately, the next phase is where things start to get nasty. Just because equity markets cheered the latest sugar rush he guaranteed them should not make smart investors lower their guard — quite the opposite, in fact. Colonel Kuroda has gone up-country into the Heart of Darkness, and all we can do is await the Apocalypse now.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 12





  • Russia faces new U.S., EU sanctions over Ukraine crisis (Reuters)
  • Glasgow pulls no punches in welcome to 'Save the Union Express' (Guardian)
  • Pound Seen Tumbling Up to 10% on Scottish Yes Vote (BBG)
  • Moscow stifles dissent as soldiers return in coffins (Reuters)
  • Ukraine's leader sees no military solution of crisis, eyes reforms (Reuters)
  • Venezuela Threatens Harvard Professor for Default Comment (BBG)
  • Australia Raises Terror Alert to Highest Level in a Decade (BBG)
  • Activist Investors Build Up Their War Chests (WSJ)
 
GoldCore's picture

Gold Lock Down Despite Aggressive Plan To Ban Russia From SWIFT, Terrorism & War Risk; Palladium At Multi-Year High Over $900





The 13 year anniversary of the 911 attacks in 2001 looms next week and given developments in recent days and weeks, one must be wary of new attacks in the UK , U.S. and other western nations. The UK has raised the country's terror threat level from substantial to severe, its second highest level. MI5 and MI6 said there was no information to suggest an attack was imminent.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Ebola Devastates West Africa: Revenues Down; Markets Not Functioning; Projects Canceled; GDP Plunges 4%





The market, in its infinitely rigged wisdom, has concluded that the worst Ebola outbreak in history is a non-event, even though it has put virtually all of western Africa on indefinite lockdown, and as Reuters reports, is "causing enormous damage to West African economies and  draining budgetary resources." In fact the damage from Ebola to Africa is already so acute, it is expected that economic growth in the region will plunge by up to 4 percent as foreign businessmen leave and projects are canceled, according to the African Development Bank president said. Revenues are down, foreign exchange levels are down, markets are not functioning, airlines are not coming in, projects are being canceled, business people have left - that is very, very damaging," African Development Bank (AfDB) chief Donald Kaberuka said in an interview late on Tuesday.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Iceland's Bardarbunga Volcano Begins To Erupt, Ash Cloud Imminent After Aviation Warning Raised To "Red"





Moments ago Iceland's meteorological service reported that the island's Bardarbunga volcano, having been closely observed by volcano-watchers for the past month due to heightened seismic activity, has begun to erupt which means in addition to Russia's trade war, Europe now has another volcanic eruption to blame its latest GDP contraction on. As the local Met office summarizes, a "small" eruption of lava has occurred to the northeast of the volcano leading the Icelandic National Broadcasting Service to declare that "all air traffic is now prohibited in a large radius around the volcano."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

And Another Reason Why Bonds Just Refuse To Sell Off





In addition to the countless other reason already presented here over the past year why the bond market simply refuses to sell (scarcity of "high quality collateral", shadow banking lubrication, fears over a slowing economy, reverse rotation by pension funds from stocks into bonds, etc), here is one more reason: today the spread between the 30 Year Bund and the 30 Year Treasury just hit a record wide.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Stocks Hit All Time Highs After Russia Announces It Has "No Plans Of Military Incursion Into Ukraine"





 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Anti-Putin" Alliance Fraying: Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Czech Republic Urge End To Russian Sanctions





Greece, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Germany... the chorus of voices demanding an end to Russian sanctions is starting to drown out the neocon warmongering efforts of the west...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Here Comes The European Triple-Dip: Negative German GDP Sends Bunds Under 1% For The First Time Ever





The hammer finally hit for Europe when overnight both Germany and France reported Q2 GDP prints that missed expectations, the first actually contracting at a 0.2% rate with consensus looking for -0.1%, while France remained flat vs expectations for a tiny 0.1% rise. As a reminder, this GDP is the revised one, which already includes the estimated contribution of drugs and prostitution, suggesting the actual underlying economic growth is far worse than even reported. Then again, this is hardly surprising considering all the abysmal data out of Europe and the rest of the world in recent weeks, and with the Russian trade war sure to trim even more growth, look for all of Europe to join Italy in its first upcoming triple-dip recession in history.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Greek Bailout 3.0? It's All Russia's Fault





Despite 30% general unemployment, the majority of youths jobless, GDP forecasts already disappointing, and government asset sales at rock-bottom prices, Greek leaders are preparing to blame any missed growth expectations on Russia. As Bloomberg reports, hopes of a 2014 exit from its deepest recession in a half-century may hit a stumbling block after Russian sanctions last week. "The impact could be quite damaging for industries such as tourism and agriculture amid the fragility of a slowly recovering economy," warns one think-tank as tourist arrivals from Ukraine are expected to drop by 50% and the 'fruit-and-vegetable' embargo will "send prices falling across Europe, hitting both the volume and value of Greek exports towards other countries." Is it any wonder the Greeks are so vociferously slamming "blind obedience to the Cold War strategies of Brussels and Washington."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"The Train Wreck Is Coming," David Stockman Warns, "All Hell Will Break Loose"





Train wreck is a pretty good term to describe what is coming.  But this train wreck isn’t simply going to hit a wall out of the blue. Actually, it has been forming and accumulating and expanding for many years now, and yet it has simply been ignored, particularly by the financial markets which have ridden this bubble to these extreme and historic heights. The only issue is, when does it hit the wall?  The answer to that question is it’s not very far down the road, and I can promise you that is when all hell is going to break loose.”

 
Tyler Durden's picture

This Is How Putin's Advisor Sees The Ukraine Crisis Playing Out





“The point of a series of regional wars organized by the Americans, especially today’s catastrophe in Ukraine, centers on the U.S. securing control over all of north Eurasia” to bolster “its position against China. That’s how the U.S. military and oligarchs are trying to maintain leadership in the global competition with China....Task no. 1 is to block those threats to economic security that are now coming from the U.S., neutralize them by reducing the dependence of our external economic activity on the mercy of American politicians, whose aggressiveness threatens the entire world."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

European Stocks Enter Correction, Though Strong USDJPY Levitation Cuts Most Of US Futures Losses





Late yesterday, after Nobel peace prize-winning president Obama revealed his latest military incursion, years of pent up can-kicking almost caught up with futures, which dared to tumble by a whopping 0.7%, a move which hit Europe far more than the US, and shortly after Europe's open, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index dropped 10% from its 2014 high, marking an official correction in Europe where the Dax continues to be the key risk indicator, and which dropped as low as 8,903 before recovering to a drop of only 0.9% while German Bunds continues to print record highs day after day on fears what the escalating Russian trade war will do to the German economy, and other such "costs." US futures meanwhile have seen most of their losses recovered thanks to the usual relentless low volume USDJPY levitation, which pushed ES down to just -0.2% after a nearly four times greater drop. Still, while futures may be surging, the 10 Year has not gotten the memo and remains stuck just above 2.36% or its lowest print since June 2013, a clear indication that at least the bond market has given up all hope of a so-called US recovery for the conceivable future. What is most important however, is that at this pace, the Friday confidence effect, i.e., a green close, may be recovered: let's all just wait and see what the NY Fed trading desk decides to do, and escalating world wars aside, let's just pretend that HY didn't just sugger the biggest weekly HY outflow in history didn't just take place.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Stop Putin" Coalition Cracking: Greece Laments "Blind Obedience To Cold War Strategies Of Brussels And Washington"





It was all fun and games while the grand western "Pariah Putin is evil" alliance was calling the shots, lobbing one sanctions after another, and Russia was quietly sitting there and taking it all. But once Europe realized that suddenly its food exporters are about to see their revenues plunge (and ostensibly lead to even more domestic deflation as all the excess produce floods domestic markets) and lead to gaping trade deficits, suddenly cries that Putin's retaliation is "unfair" have filled the air. What's worse, the moment Russia retaliated, the grand alliance started to crack. Enter Greece which has hundreds of millions in food exports to Russia, and which was the first country to hint that it may splinter from the western "pro-sanctions" alliance.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Europe Furious That Putin Dares To Retaliate To Sanctions, Blames Economic Slide On Kremlin





Either Europe is run by a bunch of unelected idiots, or... well, that's about it. After blindly doing the US' bidding over all propaganda matters Ukraine-related, and following just as blindly into round after round of US-inspired sanctions, sanctions to whose retaliation Europe would be on the frontline unlike the largely insulated US, Europe appears to be absolutely shocked and is apoplectic that after several rounds of sanction escalations, Russia finally unleashed its own round of sanctions and yesterday announced a 1 year ban on all European food imports, something which will further push Europe into a triple-dip recession as already hinted by Italy yesterday.

 
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