Trade War

Britain Doesn't Need The EU To Thrive

The history of mankind is a struggle between the individual trying to retain freedoms and tyrannical governments trying to take it away from him. The EU was created to increase freedoms: the freedom of the movement of goods, capital, and people. As expected, it has devolved into an entity that does just the opposite...

Frontrunning: June 21

  • Tiny Tilt in ‘Brexit’ Polls Roils Global Markets (WSJ)
  • Oil prices slip after rally as market turns cautious (Reuters)
  • What to Watch for in Janet Yellen’s Congressional Testimony (WSJ)
  • Cracks emerge in the European consensus on Russia (Reuters)
  • Iraqi forces retake two Falluja districts from Islamic State, push west (Reuters)

Global Stocks Plunge; US Futures, Oil Slide As Brexit Fears "Jolt Markets"

Right now it is all about the immediate fate of the UK, and as Bloomberg explains the "jolted markets" and overnight plunge in global risk assets, "growing anxiety over the prospect of the U.K. exiting the European Union dominated financial markets, sending global stocks down for a third day and the British pound to an eight-week low while boosting demand for havens such as the yen and gold."

Obama Administration Protectionism Goes "Nuclear" - Seeks "Total Ban" On Chinese Steel

A huge global trade war is on the horizon, regardless of whether Hillary or Trump wins the election, as the Obama administration's own protectionists are on the cusp of a “Pyrrhic victory” over China. In 2011, the US put huge tariffs on Chinese-made tires (to the detriment of consumers and the auto industry). China responded with anti-dumping tariffs on GM.

Hedge Fund Billionaire Slams Democracy, Says The "Tyranny Of The Majority Is An Unhealthy Development"

In his latest letter to investors, OakTree Capital's Howard Marks goes political (slamming Trump's tariffs and Bernie's minimum wage machinations), shedding some blinding light on the economic reality of America, the dismal failure (and increasing impotence) of central bankers, and the ongoing "tryanny of the majority" warning that if everyone wants to tax-the-rich, soon there will be no rich to tax. As he concludes, short-term fixes simply cannot create wealth out of thin air (see Venezuela), as Churchill once said "for a nation to try to tax [or stimulate or devalue] itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle."

Furious China Slams "Irrational" US Trade War, Warns "Will Take Steps"

Overnight the Commerce Department escalated its trade war with China when it implemented the latest clampdown on a glut of steel imports, when it announced that corrosion-resistant steel from China will face final U.S. anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties of up to 450%. China's Commerce Ministry said it was extremely dissatisfied at what it called the "irrational" move by the United States, which it said would harm cooperation between the two countries. "China will take all necessary steps to strive for fair treatment and to protect the companies' rights," it said, without elaborating.

China Furious After US Launches Trade War "Nuke" With 522% Duty

China is livid: as a result of record Chinese steel dumping, the US unleashed what is nothing short of a nuclear bomb in its rapidly escalating trade war with China, by imposing duties of 522% on cold-rolled steel used in automobiles and other manufacturing. In doing so it has effectively rendered Chinese exports to the US unsustainable and will force even more excess Chinese production to remain landlocked within China's borders, making the domestic glut that much worse.

Mexican President Warns Of War If "Gringo" Trump Wins The White House

"Don't play around with us, we can jump walls, we can swim rivers, we can defend ourselves.... We're coming back to the era of the ugly American. The gringo was hated all around the world, and this guy pretty soon he got the title. He is the ugly American, he is the hated gringo, because he's attacking all of us, he's offending all of us. Imagine, I mean that could take us to a war. Not to a trade war."

- Mexican president, Vicente Fox

The 2016 "Rage, Fear, & Anger" Election: Ron Paul's Deep Dive Into The Real Issues

"The major issues that both parties and their candidates agree upon include: the central bank’s monetary policy; welfarism; federal government involvement in education and medicine; the drug war; privacy abuse; preemptive war; foreign interventionism; and the US as the policeman of the world with increased spending for the military. The 2016 election won’t make any difference in any of these areas. The American people continue to be deceived into believing elections are serious affairs that affect our future. The Deep State will remain in charge regardless of the outcome and few will even be aware of the invisible fist that rules over us."

Will Trump Be Swindled In Cleveland, Too?

If Sanders and his revolution are sent packing in Philadelphia, and Trump is robbed in Cleveland of a nomination Americans believe he won, political disillusionment, and political realignment, may be at hand.

Frontrunning: April 8

  • Stocks up as investors look to end bruising week on a high (Reuters)
  • Treasuries Set for Two-Week Gain; Greenspan Warns of Global Risk (BBG)
  • Yellen, alongside Fed alum, says rate hikes on track (Reuters)
  • Oil Prices Lifted by Fed Comments on U.S. Economy (WSJ)
  • China says G20 summit should be about economics, not politics (Reuters)
  • Cameron Accused of Hypocrisy for Stake in Father's Offshore Fund (BBG)

The Trade Wars Begin: China Retaliates To Steel Tariffs With Global Anti-Dumping Duties

In the aftermath of dramatic tarfiffs imposed on China's steel exports in December, we asked how long until it responds with it own protectionist response: a necessary and sufficient condition for fully symmetric trade wars. It did so earlier today when, accused of flooding world markets with cheap steel, it imposed its own anti-dumping duties as high as 46.3% on electric steel products imported from Japan, South Korea and the European Union, the Ministry of Commerce said on Friday.

Toward A Grand New Bargain: How Donald Trump Can Clear The Field And Realign American Politics

It’s actually pretty easy. At an apt moment very soon, Trump should offer Governor Kasich the VP slot and Senator Cruz the vacant Supreme Court seat. Such a grand bargain would not only clear the primary field and quash any backroom hijacking of the nomination by the Washington GOP establishment; it would also permit each man to play his highest and best role at this great inflection point in the nation’s history.

Trumpomania & Trumpopanic

The country’s social mood is apparently ripe and it finally seems actually possible for a perceived outsider to win by challenging the established order. Our main regret is that it wasn’t yet ripe at the time Ron Paul tried his hand at winning the nomination. Everything Trump is saying and doing should probably be seen in the context of his strategy. It’s quite Machiavellian actually. The alleged lack of discernible policy stances, the occasional contradictions and often hair-raising statements are all in pursuit of the same goal: to win the nomination. Other than that, we mainly enjoy the growing discomfort of assorted cronies and professional politicians.