Trade Wars

The Eight Forces That Are Pressuring Profits

If there is any economic assumption that goes unquestioned, it's the notion that profits will remain robust for the foreseeable future. This assumption ignores the tidal forces that are now flowing against profits.

'Protectionist' Obama Escalates Trade War, Slams China With Subsidized Aluminum Complaint

With all the partisan narrative defining Trump as a tariff-setting, anti-trade, economy-buster, we thought it ironic that free-trade-wunderkid Obama just escalated trade wars by bringing his administration's 16th trade-enforcement complaint against China with WTO, urging tariffs on subsidised Chinese aluminum, after accusing them of funneling artificially cheap loans from state-run banks to producers.

Frontrunning: December 30

  • Russia Set to Expel 35 U.S. Diplomats in Tit-for-Tat (BBG)
  • Trump’s Plan to Partner With Russia Faces Bigger Hurdle (WSJ)
  • Trump could reverse effects of Obama order on Russia (Reuters)
  • Gold Lures Investors Worried About Trade Wars and Trump Tweets (BBG)
  • Syria truce backed by Russia, Turkey, holds but clashes reported (Reuters)

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

China "Shocked" By Navarro Appointment, As Trump Team Proposes 10% Import Tariff

The appointment of Peter Navarro to a formal White House post "shocked' Chinese officials who had hoped that Mr Trump would tone down his anti-Beijing rhetoric after assuming office. China will be even more shocked, however, if as CNN reports, Trump is about to implement a 10% import tariff, leading to an all out trade war with Beijing.

Here Are The "Costanza Trades" Of 2017

Ask yourself; what are the trades that make complete sense and all your instincts say are right, and then do the opposite.  Basically what you end up constructing is an out of consensus portfolio and we all know how consensus trades work out in this market.

Where Are The 'Black Swans' Hiding?

While being capable of imagining a 'black swan' event implies its non-existence; given the level of groupthink consensus agreement that the bond bull is dead, inflation is back, central banks are maxed out, and global fiscal stimulus will save the world, we thought a look at some of the more unsusual, unpredictable expectations for 2017 was worthwhile...

Markets Award Trump Nobel Prize In Economics

It took only nine days in office for President Obama to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Likewise, the markets seem to have prematurely greeted Trumponomics as an outstanding success. There’s just one thing: Trump hasn’t done anything yet. We’re still weeks away from his inauguration, and details of his economic plans remain scarce.