Trade Wars

Markets Award Trump Nobel Prize In Economics

It took only nine days in office for President Obama to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Likewise, the markets seem to have prematurely greeted Trumponomics as an outstanding success. There’s just one thing: Trump hasn’t done anything yet. We’re still weeks away from his inauguration, and details of his economic plans remain scarce.

Trump, OPEC, & Game Theory

The role of the USA has changed sharply in terms of its likely behaviour under a Trump administration as it will no longer be a cooperative player, but a competitive one, where there are drastically different equilibrium conditions. When the dominant player changes its tack to claw back some the shared gains for itself, the game can rapidly change to a zero-sum or even negative-sum one.

"What If Market Consensus Is Wrong" - A Hedge Fund Ponders The Alternative

"What if consensus is wrong: what if rates are rising due to the end of Quantitative Easing and not because of reflation/escape velocity on growth? Rates then rise without growth, perhaps even without much inflation. Indeed, rates started rising back in August, on momentous shifts in policy by BoJ (forced by capacity constraints and collateral damage). Such scenario is not good for equities, contrary to what currently believed by markets."

'Grey Champion' Assumes Command, Part 2

Seventy year old Donald Trump has assumed the Grey Champion flagstaff. In an increasingly chaotic world, normal working class Americans in flyover country were seeking a leader who could bring order, defeat the corrupt establishment, make tough decisions, and capture the zeitgeist of this moment in history. The ruling elite oligarchs and their fawning minions are infuriated the peasants have dared to resist. In their secretive secure spaces, the elites are plotting with one purpose in mind – this uprising must be quelled.

Frontrunning: November 14

  • Trump shapes White House, hires establishment figure, firebrand (Reuters)
  • The Trump Effect: Rout in Global Bonds and Emerging Markets Intensifies (BBG); Government Bond Rout Deepens (WSJ); Dollar soars as U.S. yields spike; global shares divided (Reuters)
  • Oil pinned near three-month lows as gloom grows over OPEC (Reuters)
  • Thin Rank of Donors May Contend for Top Posts (WSJ)
  • Trump’s Election Upends Agenda for Obama’s Last Foreign Trip (BBG)

Markets In Turmoil: Global Bond Bloodbath, Currency Rout Accelerates As Stocks Erase Early Gains

Monday started off where Friday left off, with the dollar surge continuing, pushing the DXY above 100 for the first time since December, global bond yields soaring, emerging market currencies tumbling, and the Yuan slammed below 6.85 for the first time. However, where Monday is different is that while European stocks and US index futures started off far higher, E-minis have now faded the entire overnight rally and are now red for the session, on concerns that the spike in yields will cap any more stock upside.

Brexit - Winners & Losers

UK prime minister Theresa May hopes the EU will come to its senses and negotiate a fair Brexit settlement. Unfortunately, current rhetoric suggests a “hard brexit” is the most likely scenario.

Is Trump Wrong On Trade?

The real culprit or cause of the loss of purchasing power is the American Central Bank. It is directly responsible for the growth in income inequality and the slow decline in living standard of the American middle class. Monetary policy is “econspeak” for legal counterfeiting! If Trump really wants to make America great again, he should seriously consider returning the U.S. to sound mone.

The Greater Depression - Part 2: "Cinderella Man"

A victory by Hillary would be a victory for Wall Street, billionaire oligarchs, neo-con warmongers, propaganda media outlets, and corporate cronyism. A Trump victory would boost the morale of a middle class that has been abused, denigrated, belittled, ignored, and taken advantage of by the ruling class for decades. The hopes and dreams of millions are riding on a victory by the anti-Cinderella man. His popularity rides on a sea of rightful resentment, anger, and fury at how the average American has been screwed by the ruling class (both parties) for decades.