Transparency

As a general rule, extreme economic decline is almost always followed by extreme international conflict. Sometimes, these disasters can be attributed to the human survival imperative and the desire to accumulate resources during crisis. But most often, war amid fiscal distress is usually a means for the political and financial elite to distract the masses away from their empty wallets and empty stomachs. War galvanizes societies, usually under false pretenses. We're not talking about superficial “police actions” or absurd crusades to “spread democracy” to Third World enclaves that don’t want it. No, we're talking about REAL war: war that threatens the fabric of a culture, war that tumbles violently across people’s doorsteps. The reality of near-total annihilation is what oligarchs use to avoid blame for economic distress while molding nations and populations. Because of the very predictable correlation between financial catastrophe and military conflagration, it makes quite a bit of sense for Americans today to be concerned.

Despite the ratings agencies (Moody's Dec 5th and S&P Nov 22nd) seemingly premature raising of the outlook for the nation's sovereign credit rating (from negative to stable), economic hardship in Spain looks likely to continue as loan defaults surge and the unemployment rate remains the second highest in the EU.

• U.S. set to adopt Volcker rule to curb bank trading gambles (Reuters) After vote, lawsuits likely next hurdle for Volcker rule (Reuters)
• U.S. Congress budget talks could produce Tuesday deal, aides say (Reuters)
• Wealthy Go Frugal This Holiday Amid Uneven U.S. Recovery (BBG)
• Tearful Thai PM urges protesters to take part in election (Reuters)
• Fed’s Bullard Sees Higher QE Taper Odds as Labor Market Improves (BBG)
• Coeure Says ECB Would Offer More LTROs Only When Banks Can Lend (BBG)
• Inside China's Super-Sterile Chicken Farms (WSJ)
• Mandela Service Rivals JFK’s as Leaders Meet in South Africa (BBG)
• China data defy slowdown forecasts (FT), and of course the word is "data"
• Cold, ice grip U.S. as more snow to blanket East (Reuters)

Despite President Obama's claims that drone strikes do little damage to civilian populations, in July we discovered that “of the 746 people killed in drone strikes in Pakistan from 2006-2009, an incredible 20% were civilians and 94 (13% of the total) were children.” We suppose that number just isn’t good enough, because, as The Washington Post reports, "The Pentagon has loosened its guidelines on avoiding civilian casualties during drone strikes, modifying instructions from requiring military personnel to “ensure” civilians are not targeted to encouraging service members to “avoid targeting” civilians." Can’t. Make. This. Stuff. Up.

• Nelson Mandela: 1918-2013 (Reuters)
• South Africans Flock to Nelson Mandela’s Home to Mourn His Death (BBG)
• Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden? Obama says won't choose between them for 2016 (Reuters)
• Fukushima water tanks: leaky and built with illegal labor (Reuters)
• Sears Holdings Files to Spin Off Lands' End Business (WSJ)
• Way cleared for landmark global trade deal (FT)
• U.S. Oil Prices Fall Sharply as Glut Forms on Gulf Coast (WSJ)
• German Factory Orders Decline in Sign of Uneven Recovery (BBG)
• FCC Unlikely to Bless a Comcast-TWC Deal: Regulator (WSJ)

David Woo's earlier discussion of the 'maximum' fair value for Bitcoin, we thought his colleague Ian Gordon's view on the advantages and disadvantages of the virtual currency were worth noting. Woo believes Bitcoin can become a major means of payment for e-commerce and may emerge as a serious competitor to traditional money transfer providers. As a medium of exchange, Bitcoin has clear potential for growth, in his view, but its high volatility, a result of speculative activities, is hindering its general acceptance as a means of payments for on-line commerce...

While we are sure it is just a coincidence that hours after his nation reports record and soaring unemployment rates, French President Hollande announces a doubling of troops in Central African Republic (CAR) deciding to "intervene immediately" after the UN authorization, adding "this intervention will be quick. It has no vocation to last and I'm sure it will be a success,"

FRANCE HAS DUTY TO INTERVENE, HOLLANDE SAYS; HOLLANDE SAYS CENTRAL AFRICA MASSACRES CONTINUING; HOLLANDE SAYS SITUATION CENTRAL AFRICA `ALARMING, FRIGHTENING'

The US State Department "welcomes France's decision to reinforce its military presence," adding that, the US is "appalled by today's reports of the murder of innocent women and children outside of Bangui."

You know that game involving word association at the psychotherapists? The one where you have to say the first word that springs to mind.

It seems getting an 8 pm "escape" from friends and family this Thanksgiving to rush into the nearby World Wrestling Federation Walmart may have been a welcome reprieve for some. Those some in question being NSA agents, and just in case their friends and family got a little too pesky, boisterous or simply inquisitive, all the employees of the National Security Agency and the Central Security Services received a prepared memo with preauthorized talking points designed to "guide" conversations over the Thanksgiving dinner table. Plastered at the head of the 2-page propaganda is a Douglas Adams-like (or was that Isaac Asimov) in its simplicity bullet point: "(1) NSA's mission is of great value to the Nation." How was it that "defenders" of the fatherland during the Third Reich were being brainwashed again? But we digress.

Japan – Like the U.S. – Turns to Censorship

Another day, another carry currency-driven futures melt-up to daily record highs (the all important EURJPY soared overnight on the return of the now standard overnight Japanese jawboning of the JPY which sent the EURJPY just shy of a new 4 year high of 138 overnight), and another attempt by the ECB to have its record high market cake, and eat a lower Euro too (recall DB's said the "pain threshold" for the EUR/USD exchange rate - the level at which further appreciation impairs competitiveness and economic recovery - is $1.79 for Germany, $1.24 for France, and $1.17 for Italy) this time with ECB's Hansson repeating the generic talking point that the ECB is technically ready for negative deposit rates. However, with the halflife on such "threats" now measured in the minutes, and soon seconds, the European central bank will have to come up with something more original and creative soon, especially since the EURJPY can't really rise much more without really crushing European trade further.

The White House has released their (lengthy) fact sheet...

"During the six-month initial phase, the P5+1 will negotiate the contours of a comprehensive solution... Over the next six months, we will determine whether there is a solution that gives us sufficient confidence that the Iranian program is peaceful. If Iran cannot address our concerns, we are prepared to increase sanctions and pressure.

 

Suspend certain sanctions on gold and precious metals, Iran’s auto sector, and Iran’s petrochemical exports, potentially providing Iran approximately $1.5 billion in revenue

Israelis, Saudis, and Republicans are already questioning the decision...

Sickcare is unsustainable for a number of interlocking reasons: defensive medicine in response to a broken malpractice system; opaque pricing; quasi-monopolies/cartels; systemic disconnect of health from food, diet and fitness; fraud and paperwork consume at least 40% of all sickcare funds; fee-for-service in a cartel system; employers being responsible for healthcare, and a fundamental absence of competition and transparency. Obamacare simply speeds up the coming collapse. The neutron bomb has gone off, unseen by politicos and the Elites who wrote the bill. It is already undercutting fulltime employment, and it will soon add momentum to the free-fall erosion of small business growth and employment.

• When it fails, do more of it - Bank of Japan hints at extending ultra-loose monetary policy (FT)
• PBOC Says No Longer in China’s Interest to Increase Reserves (BBG)
• Fed casts about for endgame on easy-money policy  (Hilsenrath)
• Big trucks still rule Detroit in energy-conscious era (Reuters)
• Debt Limit Rise May Not Be Needed Until June, CBO Says (BBG)
• Some Insurance Regulators Turn Down White House Invitation (WSJ)
• Say Goodbye to the Car Salesman (WSJ)
• U.S. drone kills senior militant in Pakistani seminary (Reuters)
• French business sector contracts sharply (FT)
• How Germany's taxman used stolen data to squeeze Switzerland (Reuters)
• Fed casts about for endgame on easy-money policy (WSJ)
• France, Italy call for full-time Eurogroup chief (Reuters)

After the DJIA and S&P briefly crossed the key resistance levels of 16000 and 1800, the upper bound on the markets has been looking increasingly more distant and this morning's lack of an overnight ramp only makes it more so. Perhaps the biggest concern, however, is that with both Yellen and Bernanke on the tape yesterday, the S&P still was unable to close green. This follows on Monday's double POMO day when the S&P once again closed... red. Not helping things was the overnight announcement by the Japanese government pension fund, the GPIF, in which the fund announced it would lower its bond allocation further however the new law to reform the GPIF could be written by spring 2015. This was hardly as exciting as the market had expected, and as a result both the USDJPY and the ES-moving EURJPY find themselves at overnight lows. Will the EURJPY engage in its usual post 8 am ramp - keep a close eye, especially since the usual morning gold and silver slam down just took place.