Day three of the post-Brexit rally continues, and after some initial weakness due to concerns about Chinese currency devaluation, both European stock and US equity futures were trading at session highs, facilitated by yesterday's stress test results which saw dozens of US banks unleash a tsunami of stock buyback announcement which in turn pushed S&P futures to new post-Brexit highs.
With the Ataturk airport damage now largely accounted for, it's time to cast blame which Turkey was eager to do when Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said in televised remarks that the Islamic State is likely responsible for the killings. “Once again, it has been understood that terrorism is a global threat to all countries and nations and must be fought through mutual cooperation,” Yildirim said. “Our country has the necessary power and determination to overcome over these heinous attacks.”
Why the ongoing rally? A squeeze, sure, and also month-end fund flows. But the fundamental driver remains one and the same, and we quote Bloomberg: "the relief rally endures as Asian and European stocks rally with crude oil amid speculation policy makers will use stimulus to blunt the impact of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union, including a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Investors are looking to policy makers for support."
Could Brexit turn out to be a mistake? Yes. Unfortunately, we live in an uncertain world with imperfect knowledge. We can only guess at the future. However, Britain has been capably governing itself for hundreds if not thousands of years. In that light, Brexit appears likely promote the right people and ends.
Two explosions, together with gunfire, took place moments ago at Ataturk International Aiport in Istanbul, according to Bloomberg and the major newswires. The interior ministry adds that there have been multiple injuries following the explosions, while CNN Turk adds that there are casualties.
The English wish to remain who they are, and they do not want their country to become, in Theodore Roosevelt’s phrase, “a polyglot boarding house” for the world. From patriots of all nations, congratulations are in order. It will all begin to unravel now, over there, and soon over here.
After a historic two-day selloff, which as shown yesterday slammed European banks by the most on record the wildly oversold conditions, coupled with hopes for yet another global, coordinated central bank intervention, coupled with modest hope that David Cameron's trip to Brussels today may resolve some of the Article 50 gridlock, have been sufficient to prompt a modest buying scramble among European stocks in early trading, with the pound and commodities all gaining for the first time since the shock Brexit vote.
In two stunning geopolitical developments over the past 24 hours, Turkey - which is finding itself increasingly snubbed by not only Europe but also the US - has pivoted dramatically and shortly after restoring full deplomatic ties with another country that has recently seen the cold shoulder from the Obama administration, namely Israel, moments ago apologized to Russia for last year's downing of a Russian jet which allegedly crossed above its territory as part of the Russian campaign against ISIS.
"...the actual disaster isn’t the vote, it’s the eight years of policy that made it thinkable... Brexit is not the disaster. The disaster is what they’re rowing from..." As soon as the focus returns to why the UK bailed in the first place the proper sympathy will shift from the poor Britons in a flimsy rowboat to Europeans still trapped on the Titanic.
Earlier today, we showed the front pages of British newspapers on the first day after the historic Brexit referendum. Just as amusing front pages, howeve, abound in Turkey and especially among the pro-government (and thus government-controlled) press, such as the Akit newspaper, which looks at the chaos in the UK and says "the Crusader Union falls apart."