Turkey

Americans today are blissfully distracted by their iGadgets, plotting out their holiday shopping strategies, leasing new cars, eating out, and buying advance tickets to the new Star Wars movie. They don’t see the wicked winter squalls ahead which will try their souls. We are experiencing the lull before the storms, but the storms are surely coming. The potential for catastrophe is high and burying our heads in the sand is not a strategy.

It's no secret that the US has played an outsized role in facilitating Syria's five-year civil war by funneling money and guns to a hodgepodge of opposition groups. It's also no secret that The Pentagon's latest "train and equip" program was a disaster of epic proportions. But rest assured, if Washington can make it worse, Washington will make it worse, which is why we weren't surprised that the 2016 NDAA authorizes more taxpayer money for the funding of "moderate" Syrian rebels.

Over half of all the illegal migrants slated for deportation in Sweden have mysteriously disappeared.  The National Border Police Section reports that of the 21,748 individuals due to be sent home after their asylum applications were turned down, a whopping 14,140 have simply vanished off the police radar.  "We simply do not know where they are”, said a spokesman for the local police.

The recent attacks in Paris evoke strong emotions for many people, but investors need to look through those feelings to the short, medium, and long-term implications. We believe Paris may mark an important turning point for Europe and the global business cycle... but for different reasons than you may think. There is a chance that the slow disintegration of Europe will drive more capital onto US shores, boosting valuations and fueling a blow-off top in the US equity market; but beware global shocks and take any rally as a chance to get defensive.

As previewed earlier today, moments ago the EU and Turkey reached a deal in which Europe would give Erdogan another €3 billion to be embezzled accordingly (perhaps to buy more tankers for Erdogan's son with which to ferry ISIS oil, or to build a new annex for his palace, or just to recycle the money and purchase even more F-16s from the US), in exchange for which Turkey would promise to close its borders to millions of outpouring Syrian refugees and agree to accept deported refugees already located in Europe.

Perhaps Voltaire said it best: "To determine the true rulers of any society, all you must do is ask yourself this question: Who is it that I am not permitted to criticize?"

In the aftermath of last week's dramatic events in Turkey, one would expect that the "democratic, humanistic" western countries would at least issue a harsh condemnation of Erdogan's behavior. That won't happen: instead, the European Union will pay Turkey $3.2 billion to help it stop the flow of refugees to Europe from the conflict in Syria, 2.2 million of whom are currently in Turkey and to prevent Europe's worst refugee crisis from getting even worse.

A day after Turkey arrested two journalists for their report exposing Erdogan's weapon deliveries to extremist groups in Syria, confirming that no dissent to the president's foreign policy would be allowed, today a new riot has erupted in Istanbul following the dramatic murder in broad daylight of Tahir Elci, the president of the Turkish bar association in southeastern Diyarbakir province, who was shot dead by unidentified gunmen while giving a public speech.

The successful completion of the Balkan Silk Road would lead to a significant sum of European trade being profitably redirected towards China and other booming non-Western locations like India and Ethiopia. The US fears losing its position as the EU’s top trading partner, knowing that the slippery strategic slope that could soon follow might lead to the rapid unraveling of its hegemonic control. The inevitable New Cold War clash that this represents and the extraordinarily high stakes that are involved mean that the Balkans will remain one of the main flashpoints in this dangerous proxy struggle, despite the hierarchical switch of its multipolar protagonists.

If the end justifies the means, and we make sure there never is an end to this, then arms will continue to be traded, profits will continue to be made, and lies will be told till no-one can tell up from down, since all means are justified until the end of time. That this leaves us morally utterly rudderless then becomes just another one of those justified means. Anything goes.

While many in The West had hoped for a "see, we told you so" strongman military response from Vladimir Putin, it appears the Russian leader has, for now, taken a more practical approach. The wide-ranging sanctions unleashed on Turkey (by its 2nd largest trade partner) include a ban on Turkish workers (with estimates that 90,000 will be fired by Jan 1 2016), restrictions on imported goods and services provided by Turkey, and scraps visa-free travel and bans charter flights (implicitly hurting a major part of Turkey's domestic industry). Finally, Putin calls for "strengthening of port control and monitoring to ensure transport safety," hinting at the fears many have voiced over whether Turkey shutting the Bosphorous in an escalation would be seen as an act of war.

While the S&P languishes unchanged in 2015, these small groups of overwhelmingly propagandized stocks are up on average over 60%, but with a collective P/E of 45, they are not cheap (and perhaps should remember that when buying this momo, we are all Thanksgiving turkeys).