Turkey

The ISIS group sells most of its crude directly to independent traders at the wellhead for $20-$45 a barrel earning the group an average of $1.5 million a day.

Last night’s Asia action brought another warning that the global deflation cycle is accelerating. Iron ore broke below $40 per ton for the first time since the central banks kicked off the world’s credit based growth binge two decades ago; it’s now down 40% this year and 80% from its 2011-212 peak. This implosion of demand cannot be remedied with another round of central bank money printing because the world is already at peak debt. Accordingly,  global corporate profit cycle is heading into a deep downturn, just as the equity markets go into a final spasm of levitation based on a handful of big cap stocks.

A false capitalism reigns based on false capital - notional wealth where there is really no wealth; value where there is no value. Moments like this in history beat a path straight to currency collapse, and that will open the door to a greater collapse of all our familiar arrangements.

"Today, Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers have made their first sortie equipped not only with high explosive aviation bombs and hollow charge bombs, but also with short- and medium-range air-to-air missiles The planes are equipped with missiles for defensive purposes."

Are the "globalization gloves" finally coming off?

• Dollar rises versus euro, oil drops before ECB, OPEC meetings (Reuters)
• Smog chokes Chinese, Indian capitals as climate talks begin (Reuters)
• Obama: COP21 Paris Climate Talks Could Be ‘Turning Point’ For Planet (BBG)
• China plans to launch carbon-tracking satellites into space (Reuters)
• Scientists Dispute 2-Degree Model Guiding Climate Talks (WSJ)
• At NATO, Turkey defiant over downing of Russian jet (Reuters)
• ECB Left With No Choice But Action After Draghi's Priming (BBG)

Without a rerun of last Friday's Chinese stock market rout, European traders could focus on what "really matters", namely how much of the ECB's upcoming 20 bps rate cut and €20 billion QE expansion (with Commerzbank saying Draghi may even hint at Europe's QE3) is priced in, and whether the ECB's actions are just modestly priced in, or more than fully, and just how big the "sell the news" event will be.The result: the Euro falls to a new 7 month low, the dollar spot index hits a new all time high, and European stocks and US futures stage another remarkable overnight comeback on the usual low volume levitation and central bank intervention.

"...we didn’t go after oil wells - actually hitting oil wells that ISIS controls because we didn’t want to do environmental damage."

Now that Russia has hit back at Turkey with economic sanctions designed to punish Ankara for the brazen downing of a Russian Su-24 near the Syrian border last Tuesday, the ball is back in Erdogan's court. Unless the autocrat President plans on shooting down another Russian warplane, Turkey's options may now be limited to diversifying away from Russian gas or closing the Bosphorus strait through which Moscow resupplies its forces at Latakia.

Americans today are blissfully distracted by their iGadgets, plotting out their holiday shopping strategies, leasing new cars, eating out, and buying advance tickets to the new Star Wars movie. They don’t see the wicked winter squalls ahead which will try their souls. We are experiencing the lull before the storms, but the storms are surely coming. The potential for catastrophe is high and burying our heads in the sand is not a strategy.

It's no secret that the US has played an outsized role in facilitating Syria's five-year civil war by funneling money and guns to a hodgepodge of opposition groups. It's also no secret that The Pentagon's latest "train and equip" program was a disaster of epic proportions. But rest assured, if Washington can make it worse, Washington will make it worse, which is why we weren't surprised that the 2016 NDAA authorizes more taxpayer money for the funding of "moderate" Syrian rebels.

Over half of all the illegal migrants slated for deportation in Sweden have mysteriously disappeared.  The National Border Police Section reports that of the 21,748 individuals due to be sent home after their asylum applications were turned down, a whopping 14,140 have simply vanished off the police radar.  "We simply do not know where they are”, said a spokesman for the local police.

The recent attacks in Paris evoke strong emotions for many people, but investors need to look through those feelings to the short, medium, and long-term implications. We believe Paris may mark an important turning point for Europe and the global business cycle... but for different reasons than you may think. There is a chance that the slow disintegration of Europe will drive more capital onto US shores, boosting valuations and fueling a blow-off top in the US equity market; but beware global shocks and take any rally as a chance to get defensive.

As previewed earlier today, moments ago the EU and Turkey reached a deal in which Europe would give Erdogan another €3 billion to be embezzled accordingly (perhaps to buy more tankers for Erdogan's son with which to ferry ISIS oil, or to build a new annex for his palace, or just to recycle the money and purchase even more F-16s from the US), in exchange for which Turkey would promise to close its borders to millions of outpouring Syrian refugees and agree to accept deported refugees already located in Europe.