Turkey

Tyler Durden's picture

This Is What A Central Bank Losing Control Looks Like





With chatter that over $3 billion has been thrown into the FX market to buy Turkish Lira, it appears the central bank is losing control quickly and Turkish stocks are tumbling. The Turkish Lira collapse almost 400 pips this morning to around 2.30 to the USD - an all-time record low as the combination of corruption, social unrest, and Fed taper are seeing hot money outflows faster than the Turkish Central bank can keep control.

*TURKISH LIRA WEAKENS PAST 3.15 AGAINST EURO; WEAKENS TO NEW RECORD 2.3029 PER DOLLAR

This is the biggest tumble in the Lira in almost 5 months as the Istanbul 100 (stocks) drops 2.9% - its biggest drop in a month; and Turkish bond yields are backing up to 2-year highs.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Bob Janjuah: "Tick Tock, Not Yet Bear O’Clock"





"What will drive this "strength"? More of the same I suspect – any weakness in earnings will be ignored (virtually all of last year's equity market gains were NOT earnings or revenue growth driven, but were rather virtually all multiple expansion driven), any bad economic data will be ignored – the weather provides a great cover,  and instead markets will I think see (one last?) reason to cheer the Fed and/or the BOJ and/or the ECB and/or the PBoC.... The only real "success" of these current policies is to create significant investment distortions and misallocations of capital, at the expense of the broad real economy, leading to excessive speculation and financial engineering. If I am right about the final outcome over 2014 and into 2015, the non-systemic three-year bear market of early 2000 to early 2003 may well be a better "template". Of course the S&P lost virtually the same amount peak-to-trough in both bear markets, and in real (as opposed to nominal) terms actually lost more in the 2000/03 sell-off than in the 2007/09 crash." -Bob Janjuah

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How Turkey Put A Prompt End To Its Dramatic Corruption Investigation





Simple: it reassigned, or fired, all the investigators and police officers.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Here Are 350 Billion Reasons Why Banks Want You To Ignore Turkey's Turbulence





Despite Erdogan's paranoia over "an interest rate" lobby or blaming the Lira's collapse on the Fed, as Gavekal's Nick Andrews notes, Turkey is showing no signs of stabilization. As the sell-side scrambles to explain how this is all priced in and "contained," it is very apparent from the following chart just how vulnerable to contagion the world is if Turkey defaults. The country's liabilities have multipled dramatically in recent years with over $350 billion of foreign bank exposure to Turkey on an ultimate risk basis.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Turkish Lira Crumbles To New Record Low As Erdogan Blames Fed Not Politics





"It is wrong to link [the Turkish Lira's] fall to the corruption probe," blasted Turkey's Prime Minister Erdogan, explaining that the Lira's fall "is linked to the Federal Reserve's actions." Since the taper was announced the Lira has collapsed over 12%, trading at 2.269 to the USD, a record low for the troubled nation's currency. Of course, the timing is useful for the PM to explain his nation's demise (as it is also proving a good excuse for Thailand - with massive outflows amid its riots; and Ukraine) but it seems the problems on the streets of Turkey are anything but going away. Today's drop in the Lira (the 7th in a row) follows a somewhat surprising "disastrous for their credibility" decision by the Turkish Central Bank to leave rates unchanged (and still warn of inflation).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 21





  • Hilsenrath: Next Cut in Fed Bond Buys Looms - Reduction to $65 Billion Could Be Announced on Jan. 29 (WSJ)
  • China Workforce Slide Robs Xi of Growth Engine (BBG)
  • Obama pulls the race card: Obama Says Race May Blunt Poll Standing in Interview (BBG)
  • Chinese firm's IPO deal switches banks as chairman's daughter moves from JPMorgan to UBS (SCMP)
  • China and Russia may hold joint naval drill in the Mediterranean (RT)
  • Iran invite to Syria talks withdrawn after boycott threat (Reuters)
  • Seven Chinese IPOs Halt Trading After 44 Percent Share  (BBG)
  • U.S. military says readying plans for Olympic security assistance (Reuters)
  • Thank you Bernanke: Investors Most Upbeat in 5 Years With Record 59% Bullish in Poll (BBG)
  • From His Refuge in the Poconos, Reclusive Imam Fethullah Gulen Roils Turkey (WSJ)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Davos And Polar Vortex 2 Unleashed As Hilsenrath Says "More Taper" - The Complete Overnight Preview





One of the bigger stories overnight is Hilsenrath's latest communication from the Fed which once again simply paraphrases the status quo opinion, namely which is that the Fed will taper by another $10 billion on January 29, reducing the total monthly flow to $65 billion. "The Federal Reserve is on track to trim its bond-buying program for the second time in six weeks as a lackluster December jobs report failed to diminish the central bank's expectations for solid U.S. economic growth this year, according to interviews with officials and their public comments." Of course, should the Fed not do that, as the Hilsenrath turned to Hilsen-wrath after all those Taper rumors in September ended up being one giant dud, one can once and for all completely ignore the WSJ reporter, who will have lost all his Fed sources and is now merely an echo chamber of consensus. What is notable is that the result of the latest mouthpiece effort, the USD is stronger, which means USDJPY is higher, which means US equity futures are flying.... on less QE to be announced. We eagerly await for this particular correlation pair to finally flip. The other big story, of course, is the already noted well-telegraphed in advance PBOC liquidity injection ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year, and ahead of a potential January 31 Trust default which will certainly shake the foundations of the Chinese shadow banking system to the core. Not helping nerves was last night's announcement by Zhang Ming, a researcher and director of the international investment department at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, that "trusts and shadow banking will see defaults this year, and this is a good thing." Let's circle back in 6 months to see just how good it is.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Sprott: "Manipulation Of Gold By Central Banks Cannot Continue In 2014"





A common argument that has been made to explain the precipitous decline of the price of precious metals in 2013 (in spite of the significat demand for the physical bullion) is of investors’ disenchantment with gold and silver, which had been piling up in exchange traded products as a way for investors to gain exposure to the metals. However if redemptions are a symptom of investors' disenchantment with precious metals as an investment, shouldn't silver have suffered the same dramatic redemptions fate as gold? Indeed it should have, but we think the reason silver ETFs were not raided like gold was that Central Banks do not have a silver supply problem, they have a gold problem...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Turkish Lira Has Collapsed 10% To Record Low Since Fed Taper; External Funding Needs Remain High





While all eyes are transfixed on US equities - do we buy the dip now... or now? The rest of the world has been a little less exuberant. From China's 6 month lows to Argentina currency collapse, it's not been pretty but Erdogan and his ongoing totalitarianisation of Turkey has seen capital flight accelerate and plunge the Lira by 10% since the Fed announced its Taper in mid-December. The Turkish Lira has tumbled 27% in the last year - Abe and Kuroda would be proud - but for Turkey this is bad 'capital flight' news.

*TURKISH LIRA WEAKENS TO RECORD AGAINST DOLLAR AT 2.2242

Will the trend continue? It's unclear as little looks to stabilize the political situation but BofAML's Macneil Curry has just cut his long (having reached profit target) and that may slow the momentum. External funding requirements remain extremely high for Turkey and as MS notes, the political outlook looks hazy.

 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Here's A Great Way To Lose Money...





Nature is full of unpleasant parasites which cause their hosts to engage in irrational, destructive, or even suicidal behavior. Of course, they exist for humans too... especially for investors. In fact probably the number one parasite which affects investors is a very peculiar emotion: fear. Specifically, it’s the fear of missing out that drives so much irrational investment behavior. Nobody wants to miss a big boom, no matter how baseless the fundamentals. Ironically, this fear of missing out is stronger than the fear of loss. Following the crowd is a great way to lose a lot of money.

 
EconMatters's picture

Federal Reserve Overstepped Bounds with Monetary Policy





Yes, financial markets are built and intended to fail at times, once they are no longer allowed to fail, they become state tools for policy outcome. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How Putin Conquered South Africa





In the global war for energy supremacy, Russia has won another victory over the United States.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Key Events And Issues In The Coming Week





After last week's economic fireworks, this one will be far more quiet with earnings dominating investors' attention: US financials reporting this week include JPM and Wells Fargo tomorrow, BofA on Wednesday, GS and Citi on Thursday, BoNY and MS on Friday. Industrial bellwethers Intel (Thurs) and General Electric (Fri) are also on this week’s earnings docket. On the macro front, this coming week we have two MPC meetings - both in LatAm. For Brazil consensus expects a 25bps hike in the policy rate. For Chile consensus forecasts monetary policy to remain on hold. Among the data releases, one should point out inflation numbers from the US (CPI and PPI), Eurozone, the UK and India. We also have three important US producer and consumer surveys - Empire Manufacturing, Philadelphia Fed (consensus +8.5), and U. of Michigan (consensus 83.5). Among external trade and capital flow stats, we would emphasize US TIC data, as well as current account balances from Japan and Turkey. Finally, the accumulation of FX reserves in China is interesting to track as it provides an indication of CNY appreciation pressure.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Forget BRICs & PIIGS; Meet The Fragile 5 Emerging Markets





Despite an apparent belief among the US mainstream media that 'taper' is priced in, Saxo Capital Markets warns that Emerging Market countries with large current account deficits like Brazil, India, South Africa, Indonesia, and Turkey face increasing problems. As the following chart shows (and highlghted most recently by Brazil's highest FX outflows since 2002!) could see their currencies weaken even further if the Fed's taper plans result in a deterioration of global risk appetite.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Equity Futures Stong On ECB Day Ahead Of Earnings Season Start: Market Recap





The overnight session began on a dour mood, with both the Shanghai Composite and Nikkei sliding (the former once again just barely above 2,000,  latter once again dropping below 16,000), even though Chinese CPI came below expectations suggesting the PBOC has some more room to ease and not rush into liquidity extraction (which just happens to blow out repo rates like clockwork), while in Japan BOJ board member Shirai implied the Japanese QE can be extended and expanded as needed. Europe had a weak start although shortly after 3 am Eastern staged a dramatic turnaround supported by a bounce in the EUR (and ES driving EURJPY) leading to broadly higher stocks, supported by solid demand for Portuguese 5y bond syndication, as well as oversubscribed debt auctions by the Spanish Treasury which sold above the targeted amount and consequently saw SP/GE 10y spread fall to its tightest level since April 2011. At the same time, having been propped up by touted redemption flows ahead of Spanish and French bond auctions, absorption of supply shortly after 1000GMT resulted in an immediate selling pressure on Bunds. Helping lift spirits was a rumored $1 billion trade order in September S&P futures, as well as chatter by the Greek PM that the country was like Portugal and Ireland, prepared to get back into the bond markets.

 
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