Turkey

Meet Sadiq Khan - The First Muslim Mayor Of London

Labour Party politician Sadiq Khan has been sworn in as mayor of London. He is the first Muslim to lead a major European capital. Khan - who won 57% of the ballot, or 1.3 million votes, a number which happens to be roughly equal to Muslim population of London - has promised to be "the British Muslim who takes the fight to the extremists." Others are not so sure. During the election campaign, Khan faced a steady stream of allegations about his past dealings with Muslim extremists and anti-Semites.

The New Normal: Cold War 2.0

We are all living in Hybrid War time. From R2P (“responsibility to protect”) to color revolutions, from currency attacks to stock market manipulations. From judicial-financial-political-media enabled “soft” coups – as in Brazil – to support for “moderate” jihadis, multiple stages of Hybrid War now cross-pollinate and generate a vortex of new mutant viruses. This is the new normal; Cold War 2.0, 24/7.

To BREXIT Or Not To BREXIT...

On 23 June the British will vote in a referendum to decide whether their country should remain in or leave (BREXIT) the European Union (EU). The importance of this event cannot be overstated, since it will impact the future of the UK – and very likely that of Europe – for decades to come. The polls suggest that this will be a close contest. This means that a significant proportion of the population will be deeply unhappy with the outcome of the referendum, not really an encouraging sign given its profound implications. But why on Earth are the Brits questioning their membership of the EU in the first place? Why can’t they just settle down like everyone else?

Erdogan "Prince Of Europe" Rejects EU Demands To Reform Terrorist Law

The EU should thank its lucky stars that Erdogan will not uphold his end of the deal and gratefully cancel it. Coupled with the cancellation (for which the EU can blame Erdogan), the EU should announce an Australia-type plan forcing back all boats, while arresting and prosecuting smugglers. Call out the military to enforce the borders. That’s what Australia did.  Making a deal with the devil then letting the devil renege on a critical piece of his end is not a viable option. Accepting Erdogan’s new demands would do four things, all unsavory...

Why Obama Prioritizes Ousting Assad Over Defeating Syria’s Jihadists

This report goes on to document, essentially, that US President Barack Obama is continuing his efforts to replace the the only secular, non-sectarian government in the Middle East, that of the Ba’athist Party, which has always been the only non-religious political party in the Arab world – everything else in Arabia has been fundamentalist-Sunni, to at least some extent.

Gunman Attempts To Murder Prominent Turkish Journalist Outside Court In Broad Daylight

Moments ago Turkey's NTV reported that a gunman fired three shots at the famous Cumhuriyet editor-in-chief Can Dundar who was waiting outside an Istanbul court where he’s being tried for espionage, in a high profile trial being pursued by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, NTV reports.  According to the report the bullet misses Dundar and hits an NTV reporter in the leg, NTV says.

What Wall Street Expects From Today's Payrolls Report And How To Trade It

In what may be one of the least relevant payroll reports in a long time as the Fed already knows the labor market is doing better quantiatively (qualitatively it has been all about low-paying jobs gaining at the expense of higher paying manufacturing and info-tech positions) and as has further demonstrated it is no longer jobs data dependent, here is what Wall Street consensus expects: total payrolls +200,000, down from 215K in March; a 4.9% unemployment rate; average hourly earnings rising 0.3% (last 0.3%) M/M and 2.4% Y/Y (last 2.3%); on labor force participation of 63%.

Futures Sink Ahead Of Payrolls, Capping Worst Week For Stocks Since February

Ahead of the most important macro economic event of the week, US nonfarm payrolls (Exp. +200,000, down from 215,000 despite a very poor ADP report two days ago), the markets have that sinking feeling as futures seem unable to shake off what has been a steady grind lower in the past week, while the Nasdaq has been down for nine of the past ten sessions, after yet another session of jawboning by central bankers who this time flipped to the hawkish side, hinting that the market is not prepared for a June rate hike. Additionally, sentiment is showing little sign of improvement due to concerns over global-growth prospects as markets seek to close the worst week since the turmoil at the start of the year.

Will Turkey Become An "Islamic State"?

As we recently hinted, concerns are mounting that Turkey is headed toward Shariah law implementation as the Presidency is consolidated, and particularly given Parliament Speaker Ismail Kahraman’s comments that secularism should be taken out of Turkey’s new constitution last week, moving it instead to a "religious constitution."

Turkey PM To Quit, Handing Even More Power To Erdogan: What This Means For Turkey

Turkey's Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu says he will stand down at an extraordinary congress of his ruling AK Party later this month. Speculation about his resignation has been rife since Mr Davutoglu met President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday. He is long thought to have disapproved of Mr Erdogan's plans to move Turkey to a presidential system of government. He announced his resignation after holding talks with party leaders. The congress would be held on 22 May.

Frontrunning: May 5

  • Europe shares, oil snap four-day losing streaks (Reuters)
  • Oil rallies as Canada fire and Libya violence threaten supply (Reuters)
  • How Trump Won—and How the GOP Let Him (WSJ)
  • Hedge Fudge Managers Lose Their Swagger (BBG)
  • Turkey Premier Said to Give Up as Erdogan Tightens Grip (BBG)

Futures Rebound As Crude Regains $45 On Canada Fears; Turkey Hammered

While markets remain relatively subdued ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report, after several days of losses in US stocks which pushed the S&P500 to three week lows, overnight markets ignored the latest weak data out of China where the Caixin Services PMI was the latest indicator to disappoint (dropping from 52.2 to 51.8), and instead focused on crude, which rebounded from yesterday's post inventory-build lows and briefly printed above $45/bbl over uncertainty related to the impact of Canada wildfires on production and how long will last. The bounce in WTI has meant Brent briefly traded at parity with West Texas for the first time in 6 weeks. 

Turkish Lira Plunges Most Since 2008 As Yet Another Political Crisis Appears Imminent

As another political crisis appears ready to grip Turkey, moments ago we got confirmation that the latest scandal, this time one involving the president and the prime minister, is about to become acute and will likely lead to a party Convention as well as the resignation of the Prime Minister. The immediate response: the biggest crash in the Turkish Lira since October 2008.

Here Comes The Turkish Flood: EU Commission Backs Visa-Free Travel For 80 Million Turks

Earlier this week we observed that in what may be Europe's latest mistake, the European Union is about to grant visa-gree travel to 80 million Turks: a key concession that Erdogan obtained as a result of the ongoing negotiations over Europe's refugee crisis which has pushed Turkey into the key player spotlight. And then, overnight, the European Commission officially granted its support to a visa-free travel deal with Turkey after Ankara threatened to back out of a landmark migration deal. It proposed to lift visa requirements by the end of June.

Global Stocks Slide As Dollar Continues Rising: Has The "Pricing In" Of Trump Begun

While there was no unexpected overnight central bank announcement unlike yesterday's surprise by the RBA which unleashed volatility havoc in the FX market, which promptly spilled over into all asset classes, overnight stocks around the world saw another leg lower without a tangible catalyst, while EM currencies fell to a one-month low after two Fed presidents raised concern investors had become too complacent in their belief that U.S. interest rate raises will stay on hold. Or perhaps all that is happening is that after ignoring Trump, the market is starting to finally price in the possible reality of the Donald in the White House (although as Jeff Gundlach pointed out, Trump would be a far better president for the economy and the market than Hillary or Bernie).