With tensions remaining high, the brouhaha over the 'probe' of government corruption daring to find actual corruption rolls on and now the military is complaining of bent judges in their own 'coup' trial:
*TURKISH ARMY SAYS EVIDENCE FABRICATED IN COUP TRIAL: HURRIYET
*TURKEY ARMED FORCES FILES CASE CITING PLOT AGAINST IT: HURRIYET
Add to this the hike in consumption taxes and fears over inflationary surges and the Lira has re-collapsed back to record lows against the USD and Istanbul stocks are re-tumbling.
Earlier this week, in "Why The Turkish Government May Be The Casualty Of A $119 Billion PetroDollar Loophole" we said "dare to mess with the Petrodollar and the wrath of the US government will hunt you down... sooner or later." Sure enough, after resulting in a Turkish government scandal, punishing its stock market and sending the Lira reeling, the blowback has reached Iran where billionaire Babak Zanjani was arrested yesterday on corruption charges, although in reality his chief transgression was allowing the Petrogold system to show that the Petrodollar is no longer irreplaceable.
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Sir Halford Mackinder’s 1904 speach in which he outlined his “Heartland Theory” was a founding moment for geo-politics. He argued that control of the Eurasian landmass (Europe, Asia and the Middle East), which contained the bulk of the world’s population and natural resources, was the major geo-political prize. As time passed, energy (first crude oil then natural gas), became increasingly integral to this concept and its strategic significance cannot be overstated. Remarkably, Mackinder’s theory has remained equally valid, if not more so, in the modern era - although key “pivot areas” for exercising control have evolved. In addition to Central Asia and Trans-Caucasus in Mackinder’s day, the oil producing nations of the Middle East took on increasing importance in the “New Great Game”. We see a “New New Great Game” emerging.
It was in October 2012 when we explained how Iran evades the Western blockade (ostensibly with the implicit nod of none other than the US), and when we first defined the concept of PetroGold in the context of the Turkey-Dubai-Iran crude-for-gold triangle. One year later, following Iran's unperturbed ability to exist in a world without US dollars, the blockade of Iran is a thing of the past, and the west has engaged in a full-blown detente with the country, much to the fury of both Israel and Saudi Arabia, lowering and in many cases outright eliminating Iran sanctions, which proved futile. So a happy ending for Iran (if only briefly). However, one country that has seen better days, whose government may be on the edge of collapse due to an unprecedented corruption scandal precisely for enabling said PetroGold scheme, and which has been in the news on a daily basis recently, is Turkey. As Turkey's Today's Zaman explains in "Iran's Turkish Gold Rush", the political crisis Turkey finds itself in may be nothing but a consequence of the PetroGold scheme conceived over a year ago, and in which Turkey played a crucial role. Here is how the Turkey-Dubai-Iran PetroGold triangle, or as the Zaman calls it, "gas for gold", may soon result in the toppling of yet another government, simply because it showed that existence outside of the clutches of the 'Petrodollar' is perfectly possible...
With equity markets reacting enthusiastically to the Fed’s historic policy change announced last week, PIMCO's Mohamed El-Erian notes many have rushed to declare victory. Whether in asserting investor comfort with the policy regime shift or in declaring the definitive end of dependence on quantitative easing (“QE”), they believe that the markets’ short-term reaction can indeed be extrapolated into the longer-term. While most Fed officials will welcome the markets’ favourable reaction – and especially so after the May-June shock – El-Erian suspects that they are much more cautious. Indeed, in this FT Op-Ed, he lays out four reasons why such caution is understandable.
"There's no near-term resolution in sight," warns TCW Group's David Loevinger, as "Thailand has entered an extended period of political instability." This uncertainty has led to foreigners abandoning the nation's stock market in record size - and collapsing the Thai Baht at the same time. Why should US investors be worried? Thailand was the catalyst that started the 1997 Asian crisis, broke LTCM, and instigated the most epic experiments in central bank liquidity provision on record. With the Fed Tapering, both Indonesia and Thailand (and Turkey) are already seeing major currency collapses but of course, as long as US equities rise, no one cares (which is exactly what they said last time)...
As we noted earlier, political instability is spilling into social unrest:
*TURKISH POLICE SEEK TO BREAK UP PROTEST IN ISTANBUL: NTV TV
*TURKISH POLICE USE TEAR GAS, WATER CANNONS TO END PROTEST
The crowd was chanting "Thief Tayyip Erdogan" in reference to Turkey's graft-probe-implicated PM. And the nation's European cousins are "growing concerned" at events in Turkey, calling for "transparent, impartial justice."
Muammer Akkas, the prosecutor who complained his government corruotion investigation efforts were being blocked by the government - has been removed from the investigation. Prime Minister Erdogan's efforts to rein in "the final attack" on "new Turkey" are failing even after his cabinet reshuffle but this morning's rhetoric has sent asset prices tumbling once more:
*'THE NEW TURKEY IS UNDER SERIOUS ATTACK': ERDOGAN
*IN NEW TURKEY, SOVEREIGNTY CAN'T LIE WITH JUDICIARY: ERDOGAN
*LAWMAKERS SHOULD AVOID REMARKS HURTING ERDOGAN: ARINC
*ERDOGAN SAYS HE'S ISSUING LEGAL COMPLAINT AGAINST MEDIA LEAKS
As one analyst noted, "Erdogan continues to present the developments as a conspiracy despite having to shuffle his cabinet, which indicates that there may be some serious findings behind the probe."
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The world economy has experienced another year of subdued growth, having failed to meet even the most modest projections for 2013. Most developed economies continued trudging along toward recovery, struggling to identify and implement the right policies. Meanwhile, many emerging economies encountered new internal and external headwinds, impeding their ability to sustain previous years’ economic performance. Nonetheless, some positive developments in the latter part of the year are expected to gain momentum through the coming year. But the global economy is still subject to significant downside risks. In short, while the global economic outlook for 2014 has improved, policymakers worldwide must remain vigilant about downside risks and strengthen international cooperation. Developments in 2013 provide strong incentive for policymakers to do so.
Turkish stocks are tumbling, bond yields are soaring, and the Lira is collapsing to new record lows as the prosecutor in charge of investigating the nation's "Graft" case points out the seemingly obvious (but in public)...
*ISTANBUL PROSECUTOR SAYS GOVT INTERFERING IN GRAFT PROBE: NTV
*COURT ORDERS FOR SEARCH, DETENTION BEING PREVENTED, AKKAS SAYS
*TURKEY PROSECUTOR SAYS OFFICIALS CRIMINALLY DISOBEYING COURTS
Judge Akkas cites clear pressure on the judiciary through the police are affecting his ability to continue the probe into the Turkish government's potential misdeeds and corruption.
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Turkish Political Crisis Deepens As Three Cabinet Ministers Quit; Prime Minister Erdogan Urged To ResignSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/25/2013 11:15 -0400
The Turkish high-profile corruption scandal, whose fallout has so far resulted in the jailing of the sons of the Turkish minister of the interior Muammar Guler, just escalated sharply following the abrupt resignation of three key ministers from PM Erdogan's government. Earlier today, first Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan and then Interior Minister Muammer Guler submitted their resignations to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan Wednesday morning. A few hours later, they were joined by Environment and Urban Planning Minister Erdogan Bayraktar who also tendered his resignation as a member of parliament, however instead of doing so in a complacent manner, he lashed out at the PM and called for his resignation which roiled markets following an earlier relief rally.
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