Tyler Durden

The Divisive Fallacy Of Bubble Fortunes

"The world’s central banks have blown giant bubbles all over the place. That’s where the bulls’ 'fortunes' come from. They are bubble fortunes. It has nothing to do with being smart... there are no investors left to begin with, because you can’t be an investor if there are no functioning markets, and for a market to function you need price discovery. Which is exactly what central banks have killed."

Weekend Reading: They're Baaaccckkk!

"With cash levels at the lowest level since 1997, and equity allocations near the highest levels since 1999 and 2007... investors are now functionally 'all in'..."

Weekend Reading: Harvey & The Broken Window Fallacy

"... the reality is we are very late in the current economic cycle. Just like in 2008, it was well after the fact, when the economic data was negatively revised, the recession became clearly evident. Given the deterioration is credit, the rise in delinquencies and plunge in savings rates, the economic back drop is likely far weaker than headlines currently suggest. While Harvey may extend the current cycle for a little while longer, I would not get overly complacent with highly aggressive allocation models. Like I said, there is no free lunch."

Weekend Reading: Storm Warning

"... while mainstream analysts continue to point to the “number of companies beating estimates,” can I just remind you that it took estimates being DRAMATICALLY lowered in order to achieve that goal. In fact, for the end of 2017 estimates are more than $10 LOWER than where they began. After all, we live in a society where “everyone gets a trophy”, right?"

Weekend Reading: Losing Faith?

"With President Trump embroiled in one entanglement after another and constrained by a deeply partisan legislature, the ability of the Administration to pass legislative agenda seems to be fading... along with investor 'faith' that they will."

Weekend Reading: On A Cliff's Edge

"...Unfortunately, in the financial markets, irrationality historically prevails and very few investors survive the fall..."

Weekend Reading: Yellen Lets Doves Fly

The problem for the Fed remains the rising risk of a monetary policy error against a backdrop of an over valued, over leveraged and overly bullish financial market. Historically such combinations have tended not to turn out well.

Weekend Reading: Oil & Retail Send A Warning

There are two important areas of the market that have historically been good leading indicators of the strength, or weakness, of the markets and the economy... Oil and retail.

Weekend Reading: Charged With Obstruction

No! I am not talking about President Trump but rather the crash in both Technology stocks, and Oil prices, which are obstructing the continuation of the “bull market.”