Ukraine

But Not There Yet...

As if in complete defiance of the extensive contention at home and abroad, the Pentagon announced plans this week to dramatically ramp up global drone operations over the next four years. Daily drone flights will increase by 50% during this time, and will include lethal air strikes and surveillance missions to deal with the increase in global hot spots and crises.

Having waited for over a year for the Ukraine civil war/conflict to be relegated to back page status, if that, Putin has finally given the green light, and as Xinhua reports, leaders of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic" are planning to hold a referendum on seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia, the Donetsk-based Ostrov news agency reported Wednesday.

You can stop waiting for a global financial crisis to happen.  The truth is that one is happening right now.  All over the world, stock markets are already crashing...

What seems undeniable about the Law of War Manual, is that there are self-contradictions within it. To assert that it "reads like it was written by Hitler's Ministry of War,” is going too far. But, to say that it’s hypocritical (except, perhaps, on torture, where it’s clearly a repudiation of GWB’s practices), seems safely true. Parts of the document are propaganda. The purpose isn’t to fool the public, who won’t read the document. The purpose of the propaganda is to enable future presidents to say, “But if you will look at this part of the Manual, you will see that what we are doing is perfectly legal.” Those mutually contradictory passages are there in order to provide answers which will satisfy both  the ‘hawks’ and  the ‘doves.’

The central bank has injected new capital into the China Development Bank (CDB), which provides medium and long term financing to major national projects, in a bid to reinforce its capital adequacy.

According to the latest, just released survey concerns about both geopolitics and Greece have been largely forgotten, as have Chinese debt defaults, and instead these have been replaced with far more overarching fears about a China recession (made all the more acute after China's devaluation) and an Emerging Market debt crisis. In fact, according to BofA, "2 out of 3 investors think either China recession or EM debt crisis = biggest "tail risks."

In the event you were becoming concerned that the U.S. government might be backing away from its longstanding policy of endless violence, militarism and bloodshed, fear not. If we know one thing for sure, it’s that defense contractors and the military-intelligence-industrial complex must earn. And continue to earn it will.

• Oil moves nearer six-year low on Japan data, oversupply (Reuters)
• Commodity Slide Spurs Treasuries as Emerging Markets Extend Drop (BBG)
• Because 7 years is "just right" - BOE Official Says Don’t Wait Too Long on Rates (WSJ)
• How Medicare Rewards Copious Nursing-Home Therapy (WSJ)
• Millennials Are Developing Parents’ Taste for Jaguars, Cadillacs (BBG) ... and even more debt
• Mexican Billionaire’s Firms Swept Up in U.S. Probe of Citigroup (BBG)

"We are imperial, and we are in decline... People are losing confidence in the Empire."

If Washington does not cancel its planned military exercises with South Korea, North Korea has issued new nuclear threats and says it is ready to us its latest weapons, which "are unknown to the world." The drills, called Ulchi Freedom Guardian, are due to start Monday are designed to "protect the region and maintain stability on the Korean peninsula." However, as expected Pyongyang is not happy, "If [the] United States wants their mainland to be safe," said state TV, "then the Ulchi Freedom Guardian should stop immediately."

"The U.S. is investigating what it believes are 'credible' reports that ISIS fighters used mustard agent in an attack against Kurdish Peshmerga this week," CNN reports. "Did ISIS find some mustard? We think they did. We think they have used it."

• China central bank tries to soothe global markets, says no reason for yuan to fall further (Reuters)
• Huge blasts at Chinese port kill 44, with hundreds injured (Reuters)
• China efforts to slow yuan fall hoist Europe shares, bond yields (Reuters)
• Greek Economy Unexpectedly Surged Before Capital Controls (BBG)
• Joe Biden Is Sounding Out Allies About a 2016 Bid (WSJ)
• U.K. Tries to Kick-Start Shale Gas With Planning Speedup (BBG)

• China central bank under pressure to weaken yuan further (Reuters)
• Currency Rout Goes Global as Jen Sees Risk of 50% Loss on China (BBG)
• Europe Stocks Fall Most in Two Weeks as China Sparks Growth Fear (BBG)
• German Yields Drop to Record as China Boosts Bonds Around World (BBG)
• FT to Japan, Economist to Italy: Agnelli Family Raises Stake in Economist as Pearson Exits (BBG)
• Goldman Sachs to Give Out ‘Secret Sauce’ on Trading (WSJ)
• Greece's Preliminary Bailout Deal Faces German Turbulence (BBG)