Ukraine

"In the future, no matter how the situation is resolved in Crimea, we need a much stronger Ukraine," warned Pavlo Rizanenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament, adding that "If you have nuclear weapons people don't invade you." It would seem tough for the West (and their START Treaty) to get behind a nation that, as USA Today reports, believes it may have to arm itself with nuclear weapons to enforce a security pact to reverse the Moscow-based takeover of Crimea. "We gave up nuclear weapons," (inherited from the Soviet Union) because of the 1991 agreement that The United States, Great Britain and Russia would "assure Ukraine's territorial integrity" but Rizanenko told his government today, "now there's a strong sentiment in Ukraine that we made a big mistake."

While it may have been pushed back from the front pages to keep confidence high, things in the Crimea, and in Ukraine in general (which may or may not waved goodbye to its gold reserves) are going from bad to worse with every passing day, with the near term catalyst of course being this Sunday Crimean referendum vote, which seems like a done deal, and which will give Russia a carte blanche to annex the territory over the howls of protest from Ukraine's coup government, and the west of course.

• Malaysia Says Stolen Passport User Had No Links to Terror Groups (BBG)
• Malaysia military tracked missing plane to west coast (Reuters)
• Freescale loss in Malaysia tragedy leads to travel policy questions (Reuters)
• Top German body calls for QE blitz to avert deflation trap in Europe (Telegraph)
• Firms Suffer 23% Drop in Asia Fees Amid Search for Cash (BBG)
• Putin Dismisses U.S. Proposal on Ukraine (WSJ)
• Lenovo says China strike an IBM matter, but it won't cut wages (Reuters)
• Congress to Investigate GM Recall (WSJ)
• New hedge funds face life or death battle for funding (FT)
• Muni Bond Costs Hit Investors in Wallet (WSJ)
• BOJ keeps stimulus in place, cuts view on exports in warning sign (Reuters)
• ECB Homes In on Risky Assets as Inspectors Fan Out Across Europe  (BBG)
• Snowden: "The Constitution was violated" (Reuters)

Stocks in Europe failed to hold onto early gains and gradually moved into negative territory, albeit minor, as concerns over money markets in China gathered attention yet again after benchmark rates fell to lowest since May 2012. Nevertheless, basic materials outperformed on the sector breakdown, as energy and metal prices rebounded following yesterday’s weaker than expected Chinese data inspired sell off. At the same time, Bunds remained supported by the cautious sentiment, while EUR/USD came under pressure following comments by ECB's Constancio who said that financial markets misinterpreted us a little, can still cut rates and implement QE or buy assets. Going forward, market participants will get to digest the release of the weekly API report after the closing bell on Wall Street and the US Treasury will kick off this week’s issuance with a sale of USD 30bln in 3y notes.

A curious story, and one which should be taken with a mine of salt, has surfaced out of the pro-Russian newspaper Iskra, which reports - so far on an entirely unsubstantiated basis - that last Friday, in a mysterious operation under the cover of night, Ukraine's gold reserves were promptly loaded onboard an unmarked plane, which subsequently took the gold to the US.

Rather than attempt to reduce a very complex system to a cartoonish "explanation" of events, we would be better served by seeking out the geopolitical linchpins that have proven key in every era and theater of operations. These include Energy, Transport routes, Military control of transport and geographical chokepoints, and The support or resistance of resident populaces

While the mystery builds over the still officially unexplained disappearance of Malaysian flight MH370, or just who the two passengers with "stolen" passports may have been although we expect a revelation on this issue shortly, the FT has added yet another twist to what is sure to be a conspiracy thriller for weeks to come: the paper reports that the Thai travel agent who booked the tickets for the men in question said that she had been asked to arrange the travel by an Iranian contact. Adding to the confusion is the revelation that originally the mysterious Iranian, known only as Mr. Ali, tried to reserve seats for the two men on separate flights not to China, but to Europe, one on a Qatar Airways flight, and the other on Etihad. And the punchline: a "friend" of Mr. Ali's paid for the tickets in cash.

How much faith can we put in our ability to decipher all the numbers out there telling us the US is closing in on its cornering of the global oil market? There’s another side to the story of the relentless US shale boom, one that says that some of the numbers are misunderstood, while others are simply preposterous. The truth of the matter is that the industry has to make such a big deal out of shale because it’s all that’s left. There are some good things happening behind the fairy tale numbers, though—it’s just a matter of deciphering them from a sober perspective.

For those who have been following every twist and turn of the Ukrainian political crisis ever since its start in November of last year, the following post is likely a recap of familiar facts and dates. For everyone else, or those who just wish to plug the occasional hole in their memory, here is a full timeline of events that led to the coup that replaced the elected president Yanukovich - despite the signing of an agreement memorandum which was endorsed by Europe and the West keeping him in power and calling for presidential elections - with an acting president who has been classified as illegitimate by Russia, in exchange for which, as well as for numerous other reasons, Moscow has completely occupied the Crimea and increasingly more cities in east Ukraine are telegraphing their alliance with Putin.

Officially, US debt stands at more than $17 trillion. In reality, it is many times more. So who in his right mind would think it is a good time to start a war with Russia over Ukraine? And worse, who would commit the United States to bail out a Ukraine that will need at least $35 billion to survive the year? Who? The president and Congress, backed by the neocons and the so-called humanitarian interventionists! Cooler heads in the United States are not currently prevailing. There is a danger of an unimaginable conflict between the US and Russia. We must demand a shift away from a war footing, away from incendiary rhetoric. We are broke and cannot afford to “buy” Ukraine. We certainly cannot afford another war, especially with Russia!

If you travel around America you will see towns and landscapes every bit as desolate as a former Soviet republic. In fact, our towns look infinitely worse than the street-views of Ukraine’s population centers. Ours were built of glue and vinyl, with most of the work completed thirty years ago so that it’s all delaminating under a yellow-gray patina of auto emissions. Inside these miserable structures, American citizens with no prospects and no hope huddle around electric space heaters. They have no idea how they’re going to pay the bill for that come April. They already spent the money on tattoos and heroin.

Mere days ahead of Crimea's referendum to join Russia (or not) and following reports of shots fired between Russian and Ukrainian forces, the Ukraine Defense Ministry reports (via Facebook):

• *UKRAINE LIEUTENANT COLONEL DEFECTS TO RUSSIAN FORCES: MINISTRY
• *UKRAINE OFFICER IN CHARGE OF CRIMEA UNIT DEFECTS: UKR MINISTRY
• *OFFICER CONVINCES 'SEVERAL' SOLDIERS TO DEFECT: DEF MINISTRY

Lt. Colonel Sadovnyk is the officer reported as 'kidnapped' yesterday in Bakhchisarai. It would appear Crimea is annexing itself as this comes just one week after the head of Ukraine's Navy defected.

European sovereign bond spreads have not batted an eyelid during the recent Russia-Ukraine crisis... and why should they, Draghi will do "whatever it takes." Even HY credit in Europe is holding up - despite an ugly squeeze wider on Friday (chatter that positioning in very long credit). But with Europe's VIX above 20, the broad European stock index is now below pre-Putin levels. What is perhaps most stunning is that while investors have piled out of German, Swiss, and French stocks in the last few days, they have backed-up-the-truck in "new normal" safe-haven Portugal. The reason proferred by some - Portugal is further from Ukraine (and less dependent on Russia's gas) - which of course is the critical swing factor for an economy that remains crushed aside from trade with Germany.

£9.48 in 1973 would have the same spending power as £100 today. The rising cost of retail goods means someone who was a millionaire 40 years ago would need £10,553,000 today to enjoy the same spending power.

That Ukraine "drill" may be coming at just the right time. Just out from Reuters:

• RUSSIAN TROOPS OPENED FIRE DURING TAKEOVER OF UKRAINIAN MILITARY POST IN CRIMEA, NO ONE WOUNDED -INTERFAX QUOTES UKRAINIAN BASE COMMANDER

And at the same time:

• RUSSIA'S PUTIN SAYS TOLD FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV TO INVITE U.S. COUNTERPART KERRY FOR MORE CONSULTATIONS ON UKRAINE
• RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV SAYS HAD INVITED KERRY TO RUSSIA TODAY, BUT KERRY SAID ON SATURDAY HE WOULD LIKE TO POSTPONE VISIT

No de-escalation yet. Any minute now though. The market said so.