Ukraine

• Shale Oil Boom Could End in May After Price Collapse (BBG)
• Oil above $58 on U.S. shale output report, Mideast (Reuters)
• Ackman Says Student Loans Are the Biggest Risk in the Credit Market (BBG)
• Alibaba Disputes U.S. Group’s Claim it Tolerates Fake Goods on Taobao (WSJ)
• Petrobras takes steps to avert a technical default (FT)
• Yen’s Drop Is Approaching Its Limit, Says Abe Adviser Hamada (BBG)
• 'Slicing and dicing': How some U.S. firms could win big in 2016 elections (Reuters)
• Fed official warns ‘flash crash’ could be repeatedv (FT)

Judging by the recent action in equity futures, the continuously rangebound US market since the end of QE may be entering its latest downphase, catalyzed to a big extent by the recent strength in the JPY (the EURJPY traded down to 2 year lows overnight), especially following yesterday's not one but two statements by Abe advisor Harada saying a USDJPY at 125 isn't "justified" and a 105 level would be appropriate. A level, incidentally, which would push the Nikkei lower by about 20% and crush Japanese pensions which are now mostly invested in stocks. Not helping matters was the pause in the Chinese and Hang Seng stock bubbles, with the former barely rising 0.3%, while the former actually seeing its first 1.6% decline after many days of torrid, relentless rises.

Everywhere in the West monstrous lies stand unchallenged. The lies are institutionalized in history books, course curriculums, policy statements, movements and causes, and in historical memory. America will be hard pressed to survive the lies that it lives.

The Middle East’s ongoing descent into chaos and China’s impending ascendancy to the status of global superpower are just two of the many threats that the US, European Union and Russia all share.  Each of these issues should certainly occupy a higher position on their respective agendas than the breakup of Ukraine or the insolvency of Greece.  Leaders of all three governments would be well-advised to set aside their differences, or at least to prevent those differences from obstructing cooperation on more important issues.  Unlike its predecessor, the Second Cold War will not be bilateral.  Today’s world is far more chaotic, kinetic and dangerous than it was fifty years ago.

With Jean-Claude Juncker demanding a Unified European Army, it appears Germany is wasting no time in simultaneously boosting its own economy with warfare spending and comforting a 'fearful populace' with more military might. As Reuters reports, Germany plans to procure more than 100 additional Leopard 2 tanks, increasing its total Leopard 2 tank inventory by a whopping 45% a government spokesman said on Friday, as it seeks to ensure its "troops are ready for action in response to concerns over recent Russian assertiveness."

The White House is concerned that China may be using its size and power to "force other countries" into subordinate positions". This accusation seems particularly amusing given that it seems to describe US foreign policy perfectly. 

"NATO completed the first military drills for its new rapid reaction force. From Tuesday through Thursday, more than 1,500 troops took part in exercise 'Noble Jump,' designed to test whether troops assigned to NATO’s new Spearhead Force, or Very High Joint Readiness Task Force, could be ready to deploy 48 hours after receiving an order-to-move." In other words: NATO could deploy troops to counter Russian "aggression" within 2 days.

The US had snow in the winter to "explain" why for the second year in a row Q1 GDP tumbled from 3% to around 0%; Europe, whose GDP unlike its market (the Stoxx 600 just hit a record high) will also miss lofty expectations for an economic recovery thanks to ECB money printing, may have a French air traffic controllers strike to blame the Q2 GDP miss for. Yesterday, the SNCTA union - France's largest - called the two-day strike in a dispute over working conditions. As BBC reports, later on Wednesday, the DGAC civil aviation authority asked airlines to halve scheduled flights on Thursday. The immediate result: hundreds of flights and thousands of passengers have been grounded.

• Greece pleads cash running out, told to hasten reforms (Reuters)
• ECB Cash Said Likely to Fall Short of Greek Request This Week (BBG)
• Chinese Stock Buying Frenzy Sweeps Into Hong  (WSJ)
• Shell’s $70 Billion BG Deal Meets Shareholder Skepticism (BBG)
• Yemen's Houthis seize provincial capital despite Saudi-led raids (Reuters)
• Iran Nuclear Deal Gives Syria’s Bashar al-Assad Reason to Worry (WSJ)
• Slow apps, low battery life limit appeal of Apple Watch (Reuters)
• Gilead’s $1,000 Pill Is Hard for States to Swallow (WSJ)
• The Oil Industry's $26 Billion Life Raft (BBG)

"We believe such a scenario would have the potential to 'burst the corporate bond bubble' as bond yields would rise with inflation, corporate confidence would run high and a releveraging/deterioration in credit metrics would materialise resulting in bond fund outflows. The lack of liquidity in corporate bond markets would make the process particularly painful," UBS says, reiterating the perilousness of a secondary market lacking ample liquidity amid voracious investor demand for new issuance.

It wouldn’t be a first, but it would certainly be a – bigger – shock. That is to say, the Bank of England hijacked the head of Canada’s central bank some time ago, but, while unexpected enough, that would pale in comparison to the US hiring the present razor sharp and fiercely independent Governor of the Russian central bank, Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina. It would still seem to be a mighty fine idea, though. Not that we think it will happen. Yellen is obviously neither; she’s a cog in a machine that huffs and puffs and pumps and dumps to make sure her overlords in the blissful world of US finance make ever more profit no matter how bad things get in American society.

While Germany has pre-emptively, and somewhat defensively, come out proclaiming Russian aid to Greece as 'no big deal' - a "routine event" - we suspect the signal that it would send would not be entirely great for the EU (and Obama's) 'Russia is evil' meme. Nonetheless, as Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras meets Russian President Vladimir Putin today - just one day before The IMF loan repoayment is due, topics for discussion vary from lifting sanctions (bilaterally) or bankrolling a bailout to gas discount from Gazprom. Here's a summary...

A few months ago, Sony used a ridiculous "hacking" publicity stunt to generate some $40 million more in revenues for what would otherwise have been the latest Seth Rogen "comic" flop, in which the film agency blamed North Korea - which has about ten ultramodern 80386 computers in the entire country - for hacking its firewall, a hack which was subsequently revealed to be the result of disgruntled former employee. Fast forward to today, when moments ago CNN reported that Russian hackers which according to left "tell-tale codes and other markers that they believe point to hackers working for the Russian government", had penetrated the White House computer system.

Russia may offer Greece a discount on gas deliveries and new loans when Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras visits Moscow this week, the Kommersant business daily reported on Tuesday, citing one source in the Russian government. A Kremlin spokesman said last week that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Tsipras planned to discuss economic ties and EU sanctions on Moscow when they meet for talks, which Kommersant said would take place on Thursday. "We are ready to consider the issue of a gas price discount for Greece," the newspaper said quoting an unnamed Russian government source.

While "Bud" will ensure the local treatment in almost every bar in America, what should you order in Ukraine (or Madagascar) to 'fit in'?