Ukraine

Presenting an updated Fukushima status update and timeline in which we read for the first time that Fukushima has considered a "Chernobyl Solution" - alas that leads us to believe that there is good reason to assume that the information-starved situation is just as bad as Chernobyl.

Before you freak out, the authorities say it will be very low-level radiation which will not cause any health effects. (But can we, um, get our own radiation monitoring network up and running to make sure?!)

There are simply too many balls being juggled in the air to hope that none of them - not one of them - will fall.

Following the nuclear power plant explosions in Japan over the weekend, the next step once the world gets over its shock, will almost certainly be a worldwide adverse response against any future nuclear developments (explaining the action in shares of Exelon and Areva). It will likely also see countries that have a substantial exposure to nuclear power plants be pressured to migrate to other sources of energy. Below we present a list of the 30 countries that have the largest exposure to nuclear power generation. At the top are Lithuania, France, Slovakia Belgium and Ukraine, all of whom see at least 50% of their energy needs satisfied by nuclear sources. The US is further back, at 20.2% as of 2009 (equivalent to an energy output of roughly 800 TWh). German is at 26.1% while the UK is at 17.9%. It is possible that many of the countries listed below could see social unrest based on concerns of developments comparable to those in Japan, with the respective governments promptly forced to do the old song and dance how nuclear power is the safest available... until the black swan event occurs and it isn't.

Following the departure of Gadaffi's private jet pilot, Odd Birger Johansen, who quietly left the country two days ago, the latest to flee the sinking ship is none other than the dictator's favorite Ukrainian nurse Galyna Kolotnytska, who has taken her leave from Tripoli permanently. The approximately 38 year old nurse was first exposed in WikiLeaks cables which Zero Hedge referenced previously here. The fact that Galyna was so close to the dictator and was a potential "love interest" apparently in no way increased her resolve to pull an Eva Braun and join Gaddafi when he finally realizes the end is nigh. And while Gaddafi will be able to do without sponge baths for a day or two, it may prove to replace the pilot of a jet already supposedly loaded up with gold and ready to go, on such short notice.

Following today's rambling hour + long filibuster on TV, suddenly many Americans, most of whom had never heard of Gaddafi, suddenly either have a definitive opinion of his persona, or are quite curious by it. Alas, since he appears to have little to no presence in the US yellow press, we are forced to resort to Wikileaks cable 09TRIPOLI771 "A GLIMPSE INTO LIBYAN LEADER QADHAFI’S ECCENTRICITIES" where in addition to all the things one would expect to find in such a cable, we learn of a peculiar love interest involving the Libyan dictator: namely a "voluptuous blonde" Ukraninian, who is supposedly his personal nurse, but more importantly, concubine. So for the gossip crowd here goes: "Qadhafi relies heavily on his long-time Ukrainian nurse, Galyna XXXXXXXXXXXX, who has been described as a “voluptuous blonde.” Of the rumored staff of four Ukrainian nurses that cater to the Leader’s health and well-being, XXXXXXXXXXXX emphasized to multiple Emboffs that Qadhafi cannot travel without XXXXXXXXXXXX, as she alone “knows his routine.” When XXXXXXXXXXXX’s late visa application resulted in her Security Advisory Opinion being received on the day Qadhafi’s party planned to travel to the U.S., the Libyan Government sent a private jet to ferry her from Libya to Portugal to meet up with the Leader during his rest-stop. Some embassy contacts have claimed that Qadhafi and the 38 year-old XXXXXXXXXXXX have a romantic relationship. While he did not comment on such rumors, a XXXXXXXXXXXX recently confirmed that the Ukrainian nurses “travel everywhere with the Leader.”

The Numbers Behind the Middle Eastern and North African Revolts

As we pointed out earlier, the upcoming week will be quiet on economic and market events. What it, however, will be heavy on is revolutions, riots and the good old ultraviolence. Below is a useful primer from Stratfor for what is becoming an increasingly more complex geopolitical chess game, for the time being confined in the Maghreb, but soon spreading all across the Muslim crescent and soon thereafter into East Asia.

Markets mostly positive this morning, breaking its recent pattern. Today will show several retail industry-related releases, including advance retail sales and import price index. Surveys reflect expectations of bullish data. We also note a recent creep in LIBOR-OIS to 16bp (+4bp YTD). Emerging market stocks rallied yesterday after the release of China’s positive export figures and the announcement of Egypt’s intent to form a democracy. Inflation continues to rise in China, as its CPI increased 4.9% YoY missing expectations of 5.4% and PPI increased 6.6% YoY v 6.2%E. The CPI increase included a change in the basket of goods that reduced the weight of food which has recently risen in price dramatically. The BOJ left its target rate unchanged at 0.1%, in line with consensus estimates. Japan also saw a 3.3% MoM gain in industrial production over last month’s +3.3%.

Sure, there is pure imperial motivation ... but there is also a faulty economic model.

All you wanted to know about why the world is bankrupt in many pretty charts.

The last time food prices hit ridiculous levels, the immediate outcome was global food riots in places such as Haiti and Bangladesh. Which is why distributors of riot equipment in the world's poorest countries may be in for a bumper crop as the Food and Agriculture Organization has just announced that world food prices have just surpassed the previous record last seen in 2007-2008. But it's ok: according to the centrally planning Chairman it's all good, and the inflation is really just in our heads. After all, courtesy of the recent spike in mortgage rates, home prices now have about 10% to drop, meaning even less equity will be extracted from already substantially depressed food prices.

We have already broadly discussed the recent euphoria in the market which especially in the Nasdaq has hit 5 year+ extremes. And as always in times of such irrational exuberance, the disconnect between perception and reality is truly astounding. David Rosenberg presents his views on the latest developments in the market's ongoing fight with manic-depressive disorder.

Why the price of (paper) gold may well plummet, as physical gold prepares to approach its true value in the $50K+ range (if at all quantifiable using current currency), as explained using e-mails, Nash Equilibria, condoms, and other parables, by FOFOA

The global supply of food is going from bad to worse. The torrential rains in Pakistan have been a game changer. There is a ton of cash sitting on the sidelines because so many investors are afraid of an autumn stock market crash, and are loathe to buy the top of the greatest bond bubble in history.