Unemployment
Greek Prostitution Soars By 150% As Youth Unempoyment Hits 75% In Some Areas
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/22/2013 17:35 -0400
With Greece suffering the biggest economic depression in decades, all so a few rich men can preserve their wealth and not have their EUR-denominated savings wiped out (even if the alternative means finally being able to rebalance externally using the Drachma instead of forcing internal rebalancing via unemployment and plunging wages), it was only a matter of time before we found out just how humiliating the conversion of the entire economy to a "gray", non-tax paying one would be for the citizens of Greece. As the NYT reports, in just the past two years, the numbers of Greeks engaging in prostitution as a last course source of income has more than doubled: according to the National Center for Social Research, the number of people selling sex has surged 150 percent in the last two years.
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Four Signs That We're Back In Dangerous Bubble Territory
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/22/2013 15:41 -0400- Bank of Japan
- Bond
- Central Banks
- Chris Martenson
- Consumer Confidence
- default
- Equity Markets
- ETC
- European Central Bank
- Fail
- Fisher
- Goldman Sachs
- goldman sachs
- Greece
- Gross Domestic Product
- Housing Bubble
- Housing Prices
- Irrational Exuberance
- Japan
- Krugman
- Market Crash
- Nikkei
- Paul Krugman
- Price Action
- Purchasing Power
- Reality
- recovery
- Sovereign Debt
- The Economist
- Unemployment
- Yen
As the global equity and bond markets grind ever higher, abundant signs exist that we are once again living through an asset bubble – or rather a whole series of bubbles in a variety of markets. This makes this period quite interesting, but also quite dangerous. This can be summarized in one sentence: How could this be happening again so soon?
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Post-FOMC: A Market Scorned
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/22/2013 14:23 -0400
Well that escalated quickly... the S&P is now 30 points off its earlier highs and it seems (for once) that it is stocks and none of the other risk-assets that are taking the brunt of the disappointment. And no, it wasn't the mention of a June taper that spooked markets: as the Fed itself said that will be a function of the economy, and as everyone knows there bad news and good news are both goods news. What spooked the market is that finally someone on the FOMC is not only acknowledging asset bubbles, but putting it in writing: "a few participants expressed concern that conditions in certain U.S. financial markets were becoming too buoyant.... One participant cautioned that the emergence of financial imbalances could prove difficult for regulators to identify and address, and that it would be appropriate to adjust monetary policy to help guard against risks to financial stability." Now this is a problem because unlike the economy where QE may or may not trickle down to the unemployment rate (it won't as QE is causing it but fear not - more QE is just around the corner to fix a problem caused by QE) asset bubbles only get bigger and bigger and bigger, until QE has to be not only tapered, not only stopped, but actually unwound. And with some finally on the record, the blame will be cast squarely at those who ignored the first warnings.
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FOMC Minutes: This Is What It Sounds Like When Doves Cry, And When Others Start To See An Asset Bubble
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/22/2013 14:02 -0400It appears (as we noted here) that the size of the balance sheet, difficulty of the exit, frothiness of markets, and not-totally-dismal labor headlines have even the doves a little more hawkish about the possibility of an exit at some point - though obviously the minutes are clear that the 'flow' can increase (as well as decrease) based on the data.
- FOMC MINUTES: MANY SAID MORE PROGRESS NEEDED BEFORE SLOWING QE
- FED'S BROAD PRINCIPLES ON EXIT `STILL VALID,' FOMC MINUTES SHOW
- SOME ON FOMC WILLING TO SLOW ASSET PURCHASES AS EARLY AS JUNE
- SOME SAID "CONDITIONS IN CERTAIN FINANCIAL MARKETS WERE BECOMING TOO BUOYANT"
Two things seem clear: 1) the Fed is explicitly forcing the market to hope for bad data to maintain gains as the gap between market and reality is now too large for a soft-landing; and 2) the Fed has explicitly admitted that it is the 'flow' not the 'stock' that matters - as we have been vociferous about for years. But what is worst, is that now that some at the FOMC are openly seeing asset bubbles, Bernanke is facing a mutiny on his hands!
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"Hawks, Doves, Owls And Seagulls" - Summarizing The Fed's Bird Nest
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/22/2013 13:41 -0400
With part two of today's Fed-a-palooza due out shortly in the form of the May 1 FOMC meeting minutes, here is an informative recap of the current roster of assorted birds at the FOMC via Bank of America. Of course, since every decision always begins and ends with Ben, and soon his replacement Janet, all of below is largely meaningless.
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Swedish Youth Riots Enter Third Day
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/22/2013 11:32 -0400
Sparked by the police shooting of a machete-wielding 69 year-old man, traditionally calm-and-collected Sweden is suffering amid its third night of riots. It seems underlying tensions from high youth unemployment and rising nationalism against the nation's large immigrant population have been catalyzed by this seemingly unrelated event. As the Daily Mail notes, immigrant ghettos have been created where unemployment is high and there are few opportunities for residents with left-leaning commenters adding that the riots represented a 'gigantic failure' of government policies, which had underpinned the rise of ghettos in the suburbs - "We have failed to give many of the people in the suburbs a hope for the future." An anti-immigrant party, the Sweden Democrats, has risen to third in polls ahead of a general election due next year, reflecting unease about immigrants among many voters. What is driving this tension? After decades of practicing the 'Swedish model' of generous welfare benefits, the country has been reducing the role of the state since the 1990s, spurring the fastest growth in inequality of any advanced OECD economy. Given Sweden's 24.7% youth unemployment, we wonder just what will happen to the 60% of unemployed youths in Greece and Spain when school lets out this summer?
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Microsoft To Hire Thousands... In China
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/22/2013 11:09 -0400Perhaps the best answer to the question posed to Bernanke moments ago whether US unemployment is structural or cyclical comes courtesy of Microsoft, which announced earlier that it was set to hire "several thousand" workers. Sadly, the catch is that the hires will be in China.
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Central Banking’s Split Personality Can’t Go On
Submitted by Pivotfarm on 05/22/2013 10:34 -0400News That Matters - Today's news in brief
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"No Tapering" - Bernanke's 'State Of The Economy' Testimony - Live Webcast
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/22/2013 09:56 -0400Update: Bubbles Bernanke slams any hopes for tapering goodbye, as long predicted: PREMATURE TIGHTENING RISKS SLOWING OR ENDING RECOVERY
Bernanke's quarterly hearing with the Joint Economic Committee this morning will be today's must-see event (with FOMC minutes a close second). It seems the equity market has no fears but many in the high-yield market are anxious for the words 'frothy', 'taper', 'bubble', 'clueless', and 'I plead da fif'. While Bernanke's words will be the most important, these hearings typically include their fair share of ironic ignorant 'humor' from the politicians who sit in awe of the most powerful man in the world and his CTRL+P prowess.
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Dudley Terrified By "Over-Reaction" To QE End, Says Fed Could Do "More Or Less" QE
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/21/2013 13:12 -0400- Agency MBS
- Asset-Backed Securities
- Bank of Japan
- Bill Dudley
- Bond
- Borrowing Costs
- Central Banks
- Federal Reserve
- Great Depression
- Housing Bubble
- Japan
- Market Conditions
- Monetary Base
- Monetary Policy
- Mortgage Backed Securities
- Personal Consumption
- Quantitative Easing
- Real estate
- Real Interest Rates
- Recession
- recovery
- REITs
- Risk Management
- Russell 2000
- TARP
- Unemployment
- Yield Curve
Up until today, the narrative was one trying to explain how a soaring dollar was bullish for stocks. Until moments ago, when Bill Dudley spoke and managed to send not only the dollar lower, but the Dow Jones to a new high of 15,400 with the following soundbites.
- DUDLEY: FED MAY NEED TO RETHINK BALANCE SHEET PATH, COMPOSITION
- DUDLEY SAYS FISCAL DRAG TO U.S. ECONOMY IS `SIGNIFICANT'
- DUDLEY: FED MAY AVOID SELLING MBS IN EARLY STAGE OF EXIT
- DUDLEY: IMPORTANT TO SEE HOW WELL ECONOMY WEATHERS FISCAL DRAG
- DUDLEY SAYS HE CAN'T BE SURE IF NEXT QE MOVE WILL BE UP OR DOWN
And the punchline:
- DUDLEY SEES RISK INVESTORS COULD OVER-REACT TO 'NORMALIZATION'
Translated: the Fed will never do anything that could send stocks lower - like end QE - ever again, but for those confused here is a simpler translation: Moar.
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Guest Post: Centralization And Sociopathology
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/21/2013 12:31 -0400
Concentrated power and wealth are intrinsically sociopathological by their very nature. We have long spoken of the dangers inherent to centralization of power and the extreme concentrations of wealth centralization inevitably creates. There is another danger of centralization: sociopaths/psychopaths excel in organizations that centralize power, and their ability to flatter, browbeat and manipulate others greases their climb to the top. In effect, centralization is tailor-made for sociopaths gaining power. Nothing infuriates a sociopath or a sociopathological organization more than the exposure of their sociopathology, and so those in power will stop at nothing to silence, discredit, criminalize or eliminate the heroic whistleblower.
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Two Issues for the Fed: When and How
Submitted by Marc To Market on 05/21/2013 10:27 -0400Preview of tomorrow's Bernanke testimony and FOMC minutes.
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China Fakes Trade Surplus...
Submitted by Pivotfarm on 05/21/2013 10:17 -0400Has China been hiding the real state of its economic data?
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Guest Post: Another Episode In The History Of Failed Manipulations
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/20/2013 19:40 -0400
In August of 2011, Argentina’s government slowly began to implement a series of actions destined to curtail the right of citizens to access US dollars (foreign exchange in general). The goal was and is to force savings into pesos, as pesos are after the taxable asset in a country that cannot access capital markets and fully monetizes its deficits. From that moment onward physical US dollars started to trade at a premium. First-hand experience on the ground in Patagonia confirm the irreversible damage caused by interventionist policies: Widespread poverty, abandoned infrastructure, scarcity of consumer goods, unseen unemployment and criminality, and the madness of hedging against inflation with the purchase of new cars. The streets of any forgotten small town in Patagonia are filled with brand new 4×4 vehicles that would be the envy of many in North America. We can now see that the sustainability of the manipulation in a segmented/broken foreign exchange market causes a negative carry, which would create a quasi-fiscal deficit in Argentina (i.e. the deficit of the Banco Central), fully opening the gates to hyperinflation.
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Europe's 'Status Quo Pandering' Risks "Radicalization Of An Entire Generation"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/20/2013 14:38 -0400
It will come as no surprise to ZH readers that the topic of youth unemployment is critical in Europe but as Der Speigel reports, while the German government's efforts remain largely symbolic, Southern European leaders pander to older voters by defending the status quo and are failing in their fight against the potential for social unrest. One graduate noted, "None of my friends believes that we have a future or will be able to live a normal life," as a lost generation is taking shape in Europe. And European governments seem clueless; instead of launching effective education and training programs to prepare Southern European youth for a professional life after the crisis, the Continent's political elites preferred to wage old ideological battles. In this way, Europe wasted valuable time, at least until governments were shaken early this month by news of a very worrisome record: Unemployment among 15- to 24-year-olds has climbed above 60 percent in Greece. Suddenly Europe is scrambling to address the problem making it an 'obseesion'. There are strong words coming out of Europe's capitals today, but they have not been followed by any action to date.
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