Unemployment

'Last Economist Standing' John Taylor Urges "Less Weird Policy" At Jackson Hole

Infamous rules-based economist John Taylor attended the first monetary-policy conference in Jackson Hole in 1982, and he may be the only person to attend both the 1st and the this year's 35th. With Fed policy the easiest (relative to economic fundamentals) every in history, Taylor has one wish for an outcome... "less weird policy"

Frontrunning: August 25

  • Stock futures lower as countdown to Yellen speech begins (Reuters)
  • Italy quake death toll nears 250 as rescuers search demolished towns (Reuters)
  • Central bankers eye public spending to plug $1 trillion investment gap (Reuters)
  • Chelsea Clinton Plans to Stay on Board of Family Foundation (WSJ)
  • Bond Traders Are Desperate for Direction From Yellen in Jackson Hole (BBG)

5 Factors That Could Turn America Into Another Collapsed Empire

Many people have written about poor countries that have fallen apart. But rich nations fall apart, too. In fact, nations are just as likely to unravel after periods of prosperity as after periods of depression. The 2016 presidential campaign appears so bitter precisely because so many Americans worry that the “other” party’s candidate will annihilate the nation.

S&P Set For New Record Highs As Futures, Dollar Rise; Oil Slides

In a rerun of yesterday's overnight session, European indexes trade higher while US index futures were modestly in the green, set to propel the S&P 500 to new all time highs. Emerging Market dropped the most in three weeks alongside commodities, as today the market was predisposed hawkishly on a US rate hike ahead of Yellen's Friday speech, pushing the US dollar higher and oil resumed its pre "anonymous sources" headlines slide.

Illinois Warns Of "Crippling Tax Hikes", "Devastating Impact" If Largest Pension Fund Admits Reality

Action this week by Illinois' biggest public pension fund to lower its expected rate of return, could "cripple" the state's already fragile finances, Governor Rauner has warned. "If the (TRS) board were to approve a lower assumed rate of return taxpayers will be automatically and immediately on the hook for potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in higher taxes or reduced services... the unforeseen and unknown automatic cost increases would have a devastating impact."

Fed Admits Another $4 Trillion In QE Will Be Needed To Offset An "Economic Shock"

"Large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate have almost no ability to offset a shock in current circumstances, but down the road may be able to provide enough additional accommodation to fully compensate for a more limited [ability] to cut short-term interest rates in some, but not all and maybe even not most, circumstances."

Jeff Gundlach Explains Why He Is Now "100% Net Short"

"I've been net short all year. The US stock market bid my macro fund and I'm doing great. I'm not having trouble at all making money on the short side. In fact, my longs are probably bringing the performance down. Because I'm net short 100%."

"Regretful" Trump Reaches Out To Latino Leaders: "No, I Am Not Flip-Flopping"

Donald Trump exclaimed "I'm not flip-flopping on immigration, we want to come up with a really fair but firm answer," this morning after meeting with his newly announced Hispanic advisory council this weekend in an effort to figure out a “humane and efficient” manner to deal with immigrants in the country illegally.

Merkel, Hollande And Renzi Meet To Discuss The "Relaunching Of Europe"

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi hosts German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande on an island off the coast of Naples ahead of September's EU summit called to discuss reverberations from the Brexit vote. "They will be coming to discuss how to relaunch Europe from the bottom up, there's a big need," Renzi said on Sunday. "Relaunching Europe is a totally open game but it needs to be played."

The 10 Worst Places In America To Start A Business

Anywhere you start a business, it's going to be a gamble. More new businesses fail than succeed, according to the Kauffman Foundation. So it's important to set up in an area where the odds are in your favor. Some cities are more hospitable to business formation than others. Regulatory hurdles, tax rates, ease and cost of hiring, and cost of real estate are just some of the factors. Cities across the country are also dealing with demographic challenges, including population growth, an aging workforce and economic stagnation. Here are the worst 10 cities...

Socialism: The World's Greatest Generator Of Poverty

“What socialists like Senator Sanders should say if they want to be truthful and straightforward,” DiLorenzo thus avers, “is not that government can offer citizens anything for free, but that they want healthcare (and much else) to become a government-run monopoly financed entirely with taxes. Taxes hide, but do not eliminate, the cost of individual government programs.” And these programs are far more expensive to society than they would be on the free market.