"We have a dual economy: There are the ones who are angry and are falling behind and there are the ones who are doing very well. The financial markets are largely about those who are doing very well...So it’s quite a one-sided hope and we will see how it plays out."
"..the debt problem is so pervasive, there is only way one forward - inflate... They will do anything (and everything) to ensure the financial system doesn’t implode on itself... They will keep printing until the bond market takes the keys away."
While Wall Street expects 180,00 jobs to be added in March, resulting in an unemployment rate of 4.7%, the "whisper" is for a downward surprise due to unseasonably cold March weather, including, winter storm Stella. Here is a full preview of what to expect tomorrow.
If wages disappoint for the second month in a row, then markets may begin to ease back their hiking expectations for the rest of the year. For markets to price out a rate hike in March, wage growth would probably need to slow markedly and the headline NFP number to fall well below 100K.
While armchair and tenured economists took Trump to task last week over his reportedly "overly optimistic" GDP projections, it is worth recalling that in 2009 when Obama took office in the midst of a recession, the former president projected GDP growth of 3.5% to 4.5% for 2010-2014. He never even got above 3%.
Despite ADP's blowout print this week, consensus January payrolls is 175k (somewhat below the 6- and 12-month averages), but Goldman Sachs expects a higher 200k print thanks to a combination of lower-than-usual year-end layoffs, favorable weather effects, and further improvement in labor market indicators.
With all eyes likely on wage growth indications in the subtext of tomorrow's payrolls report (following The Fed Minutes' comments on full employment), Goldman Sachs is forecasting a better-than-expected 0.3% rebound in average hourly earnings (helped by more favorable calendar effects) and a better-than-expected 180k payrolls print (albeit with a small rise in the unemployment rate). However, they are careful to note that any downside can be blamed on "a considerable drop in temperatures."
If you’ve paid into Social Security, become injured or sick, and can no longer earn more than $1,130 a month, you can get a monthly subsidy from the Disability Insurance Trust Fund. As Bloomberg notes, in 1990 fewer than 2.5% of working-age Americans were "on the check;" by 2015 the number stood at 5.2%, with geographical "disability belts" appearing across America.
A series of stronger than expected data in recent days pushed Goldman Sachs to up their payrolls growth expectation to 200k (above the 180k expectations), but they note that while the unemployment rate is likely to drop (to 4.8%), average hourly earnings may disappoint. Of course, they add, any non-narrative-confirming misses on the data can likely be explained away by "weather effects and residual seasonality."
Starting tomorrow, Uber drivers around the country will join protests organized by the union-backed "Fight For $15" organization. But, with autonomous vehicles just around the corner, drivers should be careful what they wish for...
While the October payrolls report, due out at 8:30am on Friday, has taken on a secondary importance in light of the market's near certainty that the Fed will hike rates in December (absent a Trump victory and/or a market crash), analysts and traders will surely be concerned any prominent outlier prints that deviate too far from the consensus estimate of 175K. So, in preview of tomorrow's biggest economic update, here is a snapshot of what Wall Street expects.