Unemployment Insurance

"Zumutungen!" Buyer's Remorse In France, Impossible Situation For Germany

Now that the cheering over the French election has died down, reality will strike France and Germany like a cold bucket of water thrown in one’s face on a Winter’s day. Germany was guaranteed to not like the result no matter who won; and in France, buyer’s remorse has set in. Unions are already protesting against Emmanuel Macron’s policies.

April Payrolls Preview: "It Better Be Good"

After the abysmal March labor report, all we - and the Fed - can say is that April better be good, or else Yellen's claim of "transitory weakness" will simply be the latest nail in the coffin of Fed credibility. Here is the consensus for the key numbers the BLS will report at 8:30am ET on Friday morning.

Emmanuel Clinton Versus Marine LeTrump

Macron is nothing but an artificial product, a meticulously packaged hologram designed to sell an illusion. Only the terminally naïve may believe Macron incarnates change when he’s the candidate of the EU, NATO, the financial markets, the Clinton-Obama machine, the French establishment, assorted business oligarchs and the top six French media groups.

The End Game

"..the debt problem is so pervasive, there is only way one forward - inflate... They will do anything (and everything) to ensure the financial system doesn’t implode on itself... They will keep printing until the bond market takes the keys away."

"It Can Only Disappoint" - What Wall Street Expects From Today's Jobs Report

If wages disappoint for the second month in a row, then markets may begin to ease back their hiking expectations for the rest of the year. For markets to price out a rate hike in March, wage growth would probably need to slow markedly and the headline NFP number to fall well below 100K.

About Those "Overly Optimistic" Trump GDP Forecasts, There's Just One Thing

While armchair and tenured economists took Trump to task last week over his reportedly "overly optimistic" GDP projections, it is worth recalling that in 2009 when Obama took office in the midst of a recession, the former president projected GDP growth of 3.5% to 4.5% for 2010-2014. He never even got above 3%.

Payrolls Preview: Expect An Upside Surprise (Thanks To The Weather)

Despite ADP's blowout print this week, consensus January payrolls is 175k (somewhat below the 6- and 12-month averages), but Goldman Sachs expects a higher 200k print thanks to a combination of lower-than-usual year-end layoffs, favorable weather effects, and further improvement in labor market indicators.

What Wall Street Expects From Today's Payrolls Reports

With all eyes likely on wage growth indications in the subtext of tomorrow's payrolls report (following The Fed Minutes' comments on full employment), Goldman Sachs is forecasting a better-than-expected 0.3% rebound in average hourly earnings (helped by more favorable calendar effects) and a better-than-expected 180k payrolls print (albeit with a small rise in the unemployment rate). However, they are careful to note that any downside can be blamed on "a considerable drop in temperatures."

The New Normal 'Safety Net': Surging Disability Benefits Claims

If you’ve paid into Social Security, become injured or sick, and can no longer earn more than $1,130 a month, you can get a monthly subsidy from the Disability Insurance Trust Fund. As Bloomberg notes, in 1990 fewer than 2.5% of working-age Americans were "on the check;" by 2015 the number stood at 5.2%, with geographical "disability belts" appearing across America.