FOMC Minutes Leaked Early After Embargo Broken, Fed Warns Risk To GDP Forecast "Tilted To The Downside"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/19/2015 13:41 -0400
Seconds ago, someone accidentally (we hope) pulled a Janet Yellen as the following just came across the wires
FOMC MINUTES: MEMB 'GENERALLY AGREED' MORE INFO NEEDED TO HIKE
FOMC MINUTES: NO TIP TOWARDS SEPT LIFTOFF, DOESN'T RULE IT OUT
But the bottom line is that the Fed just admitted things are going from bad to worse: "The risks to the forecast for real GDP and inflation were seen as tilted to the downside." The question now is what comes first: QE4 or the first rate hike in nearly a decade.
“Over the past five years, our businesses have created more than 11 million new jobs. Our economy is growing and creating jobs at the fastest pace since 1999.” - President Obama
Despite those feel-good headlines, the average American is far, far from solid financial footing.
RANSQUAWK JULY 28th-29th FOMC MINUTES PREVIEW - Participants will be looking for communication as to when the FOMC will start to normalise rates and how close US economy is to meeting the central bank's criteriaSubmitted by RANSquawk Video on 08/19/2015 06:59 -0400
PREVIEW: July 28th-29th FOMC minutes due at 1900BST/1300CDT
- Markets looking for clarification for a September or December lift-off after the FOMC statement did not send any overt signals
Bernanke Shills for El Militario-Industrio Complexo
“The way to wealth in a bull market is debt. The way to oblivion in a bear market is also debt, and nobody rings a bell.” – James Grant
- Oil moves nearer six-year low on Japan data, oversupply (Reuters)
- Commodity Slide Spurs Treasuries as Emerging Markets Extend Drop (BBG)
- Because 7 years is "just right" - BOE Official Says Don’t Wait Too Long on Rates (WSJ)
- How Medicare Rewards Copious Nursing-Home Therapy (WSJ)
- Millennials Are Developing Parents’ Taste for Jaguars, Cadillacs (BBG) ... and even more debt
- Mexican Billionaire’s Firms Swept Up in U.S. Probe of Citigroup (BBG)
What happens when we roll back into the next official recession, unemployment soars, and consumers really stop spending? What is revealed when you look under the hood of this economic recovery is that it is a complete and utter fraud. The recovery is nothing but smoke and mirrors, buoyed by subprime auto debt, really subprime student loan debt, corporate stock buybacks, and Fed financed bubbles in stocks, real estate, and bonds. The four retailers listed below are nothing but zombies, kept alive by the Fed’s ZIRP and QE, as they stumble towards their ultimate deaths. The coming recession will be the knife through their skulls, putting them out of their misery.
These are Goldman's four reasons why the bank expects the S&P 500 will end 2015 unchanged from the current level: High starting valuation, negligible earnings growth, outflow from domestic equity mutual funds and ETFs, and modest economic growth. Offsetting these headwinds to a higher market, buybacks remain robust and serve as a pillar of support in the current environment.
"The US is digging itself in deeper and deeper,” warns Doug Casey, adding the telling question: “Then what’s going to happen?” President Obama’s grim warning of “deal or war” seems to provide an answer. Faced with economic implosion on an epic scale, the US may be counting on war as its other option.
The purpose of austerity is to create insecurity and instill fear in the general population in order to protect the finance and banking sector from popular rage against the crimes the participants of this sector have committed against ordinary people. This rage ought to have given rise a long time ago to legal actions and desperately needed fundamental reforms to take away from bankers the right to create money, a right which they have abused at tremendous cost to ordinary people. Instead of collective reforms, what we are being subjected to is a policy of deliberately spreading insecurity together with the scapegoating of vulnerable people.
Alas, by ignoring Keynes in 1925, Churchill triggered a calamity so severe that it not only inspired one man to kill himself beneath the British statesman’s very window but, more insidiously, also provided the impetus for the economics profession’s rejection of the “classical” axioms.
Define irony: in a quarter in which Greece was supposed to have been near death (at least according to the worst PMI print in history and of course, judging by the bank lines in front of the capital controlled institutions), yesterday we learned that Greek GDP surged relative to expectations rising by 0.8%, which was what analysts had expected but with a minus sign in front of it. Then overnight, we got the rest of European GDP, including the big three: Germany, France and Italy. The results were nothing short of a big disappointment. At the Euroarea level, the result was also a big negative surprise with Q3 GDP rising 0.3%, down from 0.4%, and below expectations. This was the worst GDP print since Q3 2014.