Unemployment

China Threatens Retaliation To Trump's Steel "Protectionism"

"If the U.S. does take protectionist measures, then other countries are likely to take justifiable retaliatory actions against U.S. companies that have an advantage ... in fields such as finance and high-tech, leading to a tit-for-tat trade war that benefits no one," the official China Daily said in an editorial on Monday warning it would retaliate to any protectionism unleashed by the Trump administration.

The Best 'Unknown' Indicator

Even though investors have given up on the Trump reflation trade, this model has not. In fact, it has pushed up to new highs...

Frontrunning: April 20

  • White House to risk shutdown as Trump searches for “win” (Politico)
  • Saudi Minister Wants OPEC Oil-Production Deal Extended, Perhaps for Less Than 6 Months (WSJ)
  • Russia denies Reuters report think tank drew up plan to sway U.S. election (Reuters)
  • Fed's Kaplan: Three rate rises this year 'still a good baseline' (Reuters)
  • Ex-Arconic CEO Sent Vague Threat to Hedge-Fund Boss (WSJ)

"The Nightmare Scenario" And Everything Else: The Full French Election Matrix

With the start of the French election just days away, investors are contemplating a "nightmare scenario": a choice between far-left and far-right candidates.  Currently, polls are very close, with four candidates in the 18-24% range of voting intentions. Given the  polls’ margins for error, six permutations look possible for round 2.

Frontrunning: April 19

  • As Trump warned N. Korea, 'armada' headed to Australia (Reuters)
  • Threat of Carrier Heading to Koreas Wasn’t All It Seemed (WSJ)
  • Markets Start to Ponder the $13 Trillion Asset Gorilla in the Room (BBG)
  • Investors’ Nightmare Scenario Takes Shape in French Election (WSJ)
  • Venezuelan opposition to hold 'mother of all marches' against Maduro (Reuters)

Goldman Asks: Are Markets Rationally, Or Irrationally, Exuberant?

The distinction between rational and irrational sentiment matters. If improvements in sentiment “rationally” reflect recent macro data or “news” about future developments, they likely foreshadow stronger growth. But to the extent that sentiments are “irrational,” they leave the economy more vulnerable to cycles of overheating and correction.

"Hell To Pay"

"No doubt, there’s hell to pay for 100 years of ever escalating financial insanity.  Take it in stride.  The downside is here and it’s not going away any time soon."

Former UBS Chairman: "The EU Was A Great Idea But It Has Been Ridden To Death"

"Putting it somewhat simply, the EU, after making good progress in the early years and serving peace, made two fundamental mistakes since the Maastricht Treaty that have become inherited burdens today, and that we would do better to get rid of. They are closely tied and together form the Gordian knot of the continent..."

If An Electorate Falls In The Forest, Is Their Voice Heard?

If there’s one lesson Europeans can glean from their allies across the Atlantic, it’s that bullets can be dodged, but not indefinitely. As we are learning the hard way, necessary reforms are challenging to enact. Avoidance, though, will only succeed in feeding anger and despair. The longer the voices of the desperate go unheard, as just so many silently falling trees in the forest, the more piercing their cries will be in the end.