After yesterday's algo-driven mad dash to close the S&P green both for the day and for the year following Fed minutes that came in shocking hawkish, the selling has continued overnight, led by the commodity complex as rate hike fears have pushed oil back down some 2% from yesterday's 7 month highs, which in turn has dragged global stocks lower to a six-week low, while pushing bond yields higher across developed nations as the market suddenly reprices the probability of a June/July rate hike.
On 23 June 2016, this British citizen will be voting to leave the European Union. To me it’s clear: the EU has not only become too big for its own good, it’s too big to do hardly anything good. Back in 1975 when the UK first confirmed membership in the EU (when it was called the European Economic Community), it made sense. But the EU didn’t turn into a peaceful, efficient, multi-national trading bloc that enables commerce and prosperity. Rather it has become an ever-expanding, unaccountable bureaucracy ruling over vastly disparate nations who are increasingly at odds with one another.
There is a great deal that is wrong with mainstream economic commentary, starting with its unwavering devotion to orthodox economics and unshakable faith in their “stimulus.” No matter how little is actually stimulated there is never any doubt that the media will simultaneously forget the last one while lavishing praise on the next one. It is, however, the actual economic commentary itself that may be the most damaging. Because nothing works, every news story is printed from the shallowest, narrowest perspective. It is a grave disservice to the public and journalism.
The US Treasury yield curve is flattening again, with parts finally in 2016 surpassing the bearishness exhibited to start 2015. The mainstream is just now starting to notice likely because unlike last year there are no longer credible excuses to simply wish it away. “Transitory” is not a word you find much anymore, replaced instead by reluctant and forced acknowledgement that there is real economic peril here. Bearishness in the yield curve is not something new, however, only the notice of it.
Is this why stocks are slipping? Following Hillary's hint last night that she would like to put her husband in "charge of revitalising the economy, because you know he knows how to do it," Bill confirmed the farce this morning, admitting he has asked for an "economic role" in his wife's adminstration. As Yves Smith so eloquently noted, after having institutionalized the neoliberal economic policies that have enriched the 1% and particularly the 0.1% at the expense of everyone else, Hillary Clinton wants to give the long-suffereing citizenry an even bigger dose. Good luck America.
"America’s on an irreversible decline and no one in Washington seems to care... God help us..." - Congressman X
In a word... "yes," VIX is too low based on the fundamentals underlying the economy, according to Goldman Sachs.
RANsquawk WEEK AHEAD VIDEO - 16th May 2016: Highlights this week include FOMC, ECB and RBA minutes, as well as tier one data from across US, UK and AsiaSubmitted by RANSquawk Video on 05/16/2016 08:51 -0400
- From a data perspective, focus will centre around the latest US CPI report, while Asian participants will digest Japanese GDP figures.
- Minutes from the Fed, RBA and ECB are scheduled for release, elsewhere earnings season in the US draws to a close with Walmart providing their earnings update.
There is a growing fear in financial and monetary circles that there is something deeply wrong with the global economy. Publicly, officials and practitioners alike have become confused by policy failures, and privately, occasionally even downright pessimistic, at a loss to see a statist solution. It is hardly exaggerating to say there is a growing feeling of impending doom. In short, growing evidence of price inflation and stagnant production can be expected to materially increase the risk of a global banking and currency meltdown. The best escape-route is ownership of anything other than purely financial assets and fiat currency deposits. No wonder the price of gold, which is the soundest of moneys, appears to have entered a new bull market.
For a long time, a common assumption has been that the world will eventually “run out” of oil and other non-renewable resources. Instead, we seem to be running into surpluses and low prices. What is going on that was missed by M. King Hubbert, Harold Hotelling, and by the popular understanding of supply and demand?
Economic inequality and the absolute destruction of the middle class is something that we've covered for many years (recently here), and being that central bank policies only exacerbate the issue, readers of Zero Hedge are undoubtedly well acquainted with topic. As usual, it took a while, but it does appear as though the mainstream media is finally catching up... While there are some families that have moved into the upper-income bracket, the fact remains that overall, middle-income households are lower in 203 of the 229 U.S. metropolitan areas studied, and there is no bias, the change has affected everyone.
In the 15th century moneylender’s had their benches broken when they run out of their hard-earned cash on other people’s backs and hence the origin of ‘bankruptcy’.
Full-Blown Fearmongering: Bank Of England Warns Of Recession, "Sharp" Sterling Fall If UK Leaves EuropeSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/12/2016 08:09 -0400
While the Bank of England voted unanimously 9-0 to keep rates on hold at 0.5%, what the market was far more focused on the BOE's latest gloomy scenarios about what would happen should the UK vote for Brexit on June 23. The BOE did not disappoint, and cautioned that that sterling could fall "sharply" and unemployment would probably rise, while in the press conference after the announcement BOE governor and former Goldmanite Mark Carney went all the way warning Brexit "could possibly lead to recession."
In a vote whose outcome was largely expected, moments ago the Brazilian Senate concluded a marathon 21 hour session with a 55 to 22 vote to suspend President Dilma Rousseff from office to face an impeachment trial, ushering in a new government to take command of Latin America’s largest economy. Rousseff will be tried on allegations she illegally doctored fiscal accounts to mask the size of the budget deficit.
Lawmakers in the European Parliament have sharply condemned the latest Greek bailout deal - reached after weeks of negotiations - which they say will lead to "Social Armageddon" and "too high a price to pay." As SputnikNews reports, heated exchanges over the state of play of the Greek macro-economic adjustment program were seen in the European Parliament this week, and divisions are also very evident within the Troika itself as obvious need for debt relief (IMF) is scuttled by Germany and the Eurogroup.