“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” – Aldous Huxley
The entire system is corrupt to its core. Both political parties, regulatory agencies, Wall Street, the Federal Reserve, and mainstream media are participants in this enormous fraud. They grow more desperate and bold by the day. The lies, misinformation and propaganda being spewed on a daily basis become more outrageous and audacious. They are using the Big Lie method on a grand scale. They frantically need to lure the muppets into the stock market and the housing market to keep the game going a little longer. You can sense we are reaching a tipping point. The system they have created is mathematically unsustainable. Therefore, it will not be sustained.
Due to job destruction in the private sector that is gasping for air.
Down over a point in the long bond. Up almost a point in the long bond. Equities down more than 100 points. Equities up almost 100 points. All of this in the span of two days. Nothing was particularly new; no event popped up on the radar screen, no black swan swopped in from the horizon to startle the markets and anyone observing the markets may well ask, reasonably ask, just what the heck is going on. First, in my mind, we are getting a pretty good signal that the markets are running out of steam and that the collective vision of the way forward is murky. We are in a fragile state; near a tipping point. Please remember, however, that there are two components to additional debt and the markets have only focused on one side of the equation which is the interest rate variable.
"I went through the January data one last time with a fine tooth comb. I fail to see what got everyone so excited, beyond the upward revisions to the back data. That only proves that productivity has been weaker than initially thought. And the income from those upward job revisions has probably already been spent. But as I highlighted yesterday, the broad-term trends are slowing down and doing so discernibly."
Everything is going to be on easy street....Chicken in every pot.
Worldwide, politicians are not exactly famous for honesty. However, Europe is a very special case… where just about everyone is lying on just about everything involving the economy and banking system.
Press conference from hell, slugfest about corruption, even in Germany
Unfortunately, the spectacular rise of Wall Street’s securitization machine will likely forever frustrate attempts to ascertain the extent to which the Fed is responsible for what happened to the U.S. housing market and financial system in 2008. After all, it wouldn’t be fair to short sell (no pun intended) all the Special Purpose Vehicle sponsors, CDO asset managers, investors, and ratings agencies who, for at least five years, worked so hard to collapse the system.
The last time prices reached only $95 a barrel WTI the Whitehouse started talking up the SPR release only six months ago. Now that gas prices are higher than ever for this time of year and set to go higher, and we haven`t heard a single mention of the SPRs?
Bob Janjuah may nt have rvrted to his RBS wrtng style of yore, yet, but the New Nrml appears to also fnly b getting to 1 of our fvrte strategists, who has finally gone bold, ALL CAPS. "IF I AM WRONG AND WE TRULY HAVE FOUND ECONOMIC AND MARKET NIRVANA SIMPLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL BANK PRINTING PRESS AND ENORMOUS INDEBTEDNESS, THEN I WILL HAVE NO HESITATION IN ENJOYING THE FUTURE, THINKING ABOUT THE FUNNY MONEY MIRACLE, NEVER NEEDING TO WORRY ABOUT ECONOMIES OR GROWTH EVER AGAIN (all hints of sarcasm entirely intentional)....Real wealth can only be created by innovation and hard work in the private sector, with policymakers, the financial sector and financial markets there to aid and encourage/incentivise. Real wealth is not created by the printing press and by excessive government spending. We simply cannot turn wine into water – after all, if it were that easy, why have we not done this before (with any lasting success, as opposed to abject failure, for which there is plenty of evidence)! "
Back to square one. Spain is in the spotlight once again with data unsettling enough to shatter the Euro’s 4 month rally against the dollar. Record unemployment coupled with depressing growth data and political woes paint Spain to look like a sinking ship.
The magnitude of the euro's slide on Monday is typically not asscoiated with one-day events. The market may be cautious ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday, but we expect this pullback in the euro will prove to be a new buying opportunity. We anticiapte the euro holds above $1.34. We note that Spanish yields have been rising in aboslute terms and relative to Germany for the better part of three weeks. This has been happening as the euro rose. The main driver of the fx market is the portfolio shift associated with the realization that EMU will be here tomorrow and the next day and the passibe tightening of euro area monetary conditions. At the same time the Federal Reserve has renewed its commitment to buy $85 bln of long-term assets for months to come.
In the aftermath of Friday's mediocre jobs report, and while we wait for the USDA to release the latest November foodstamp update which will almost certainly print at a new record high, here is yet another representation of a relationship we have shown on several occasions previously, yet which is always entertaining, and shows just what kind of "recovery" the US is undergoing. Presenting the indexed change of payrolls (green line) and foodstamps recipients (red). No explanation is necessary.
Slowly things in Europe are starting to go bump in the night again, with the EURUSD down some 150 pips from Friday's multi-year 1.37 high, Spanish bond yields spiking 20 bps to over 5.41%, back over the declining 50 DMA, Italian BTPs getting slammed up some 10 bps to 4.42%, as both Spanish and Italian stocks are sharply down on the day, by 1.2% and 1.9% respectively, following yet another Monte Paschi halt lower earlier in trading. The reason goalseeked by the media for today's weakness is signs of upcoming "political turmoil", namely the escalating Monte Paschi incident out of Italy, which we have been following closely, as well as the Spanish graft scandal, in which the ruling PP party and Mariano Rajoy have been implicated in massive kickbacks, and which may cost Rajoy his leadership at this pace. Of course, none of the data above is new, and neither is France's Moscivi repeating for the second time in a week that the EUR has risen far too high, and to call it catalytic is very naive, but it merely goes to show how the manipulated market decides when and if to actually follow the newsflow. As a result, US futures are pointing to a mildly lower opening, which however may reverse quickly once today's $2.75-$3.5 billion POMO kicks in. Of course, if the Italian political turmoil drags Draghi further into the mud, all bets are suddenly off about Europe being "fixed."
From Margaret Thatcher's original (now extremely prescient) warning of the European Union's structure creating "insecurity, unemployment, national resentment, and ethnic conflict" to Nigel Farage's recent clarifications on the agonizing direction in which the unelected leadership of the Union are pulling Europe, this brief 3 minute clip draws some significantly eery similarities between the former Soviet Union and the current European Union. Every now and again, a step back to look for context in history is important - as while the Soviet Union was created by armed force, the European Union is being forced by political coercion and economic bullying. Perhaps Churchill summed up best how it should be, "We are with Europe, but not of it; we are linked but not combined; we are interested and associated but not absorbed."