Unemployment

"Emotions exceeding known parameters cause extreme events, such as stock market booms and busts. They are self-reinforcing spirals upward and especially downward that, once established, keep diverging from equilibrium until the driving forces fade or stronger counter forces reverse them. Ever-increasing desires for accumulating ever greater wealth faster and faster ignited a credit bubble that spiralled upwards until it burst in 2007 from a lack of new borrowers. The multi decade credit bubble and its bursting were extreme events. No model recognized the credit bubble or its collapse and no model is giving any indication of the plethora of problems now brewing in Europe."

Having spent this money, your next concern becomes avoiding popular outrage as sooner or later folks will find out that this money was practically given away and that everyone else got a raw deal. Let’s say that you just spent a large sum, to the tune of several trillion Dollars, bailing out various businesses that were literally run into insolvency by shortsighted and greedy business practices. 

While everyone was busy ruminating on how little impact a Greek default would have on the global economy, the IIF - the syndicate of banks dedicated to the perpetuation of the status quo - was busy doing precisely the opposite. In a Confidential Staff Note that was making the rounds in the past 2 weeks titled "Implications of a Disorderly Greek Default and Euro Exit" the IIF was doing its best Hank Paulson imitation in an attempt to scare the Bejeezus out of potential hold outs everywhere, by "quantifying" the impact form a Greek failure. The end result: "It is difficult to add all these contingent liabilities up with any degree of precision, although it is hard to see how they would not exceed €1 trillion."  In other words, hold out at your own peril. Of course, what the IIF does not understand, is that for hedge funds it is precisely this kind of systemic nuisance value that makes holding out that much more valuable, as they understand all too well that they have all the cards on the table. And while a Greek default could be delayed even if full PSI was not attained by Thursday, it would simply make paying off the holdouts the cheapest cost strategy for the IIF, for Europe and for the world's banks. Unless of course, the IIF is bluffing, in which case the memorandum is not worth its weight in 2020 US Treasurys.

European equity indices are exhibiting signs of risk averse behaviour, with financials and basic materials performing particularly poorly. This follows weekend reports from ECB sources that the central bank does not believe voluntary participation in the Greek debt swap deal will be sufficient, and the CACs will have to be invoked. Markets are also reacting to the weekend press from Germany, claiming the Troika believe Greece will require a third bailout of around EUR 50bln by 2020, however these reports were denied by a German spokesman earlier in the session. European Services PMI data released earlier in the session fell below expectations, compounding the already cautious market behaviour. European Banks have parked a fresh record EUR 820bln with the ECB overnight, showing further evidence that the LTRO has loosened liquidity constrictions in the continent. Commodities are making losses ahead of the North American open following overnight news that China have made a downward revision to their GDP target for 2012. Spot gold is trading down around 0.9% and WTI and Brent crude futures have been making a loss for most of the session so far, however oil has made positive movements in recent trade. These negative movements in commodities are also weighing down upon the commodity-linked currencies, with AUD particularly making losses on the session.

When it comes to reporting the news, Reuters ability to get the scoop first may only be rivaled by its ability to "spin" analysis in a way that will make a normal thinking person's head spin.  Such as the following piece of unrivaled headscrathing titled "The good news behind oil prices" whose conclusion, as some may have already guessed, is that "the surge in crude oil is looking more like a harbinger of better days." Let's go through the arguments.

Inflation, Dollar devaluation, and war with Iran -- Happy Monday

Gang of Four against François Hollande. The Eurozone is becoming brittle.

Rosie: "Somehow a long gold, short euro barbell looks really good here. Bernanke, after all, now seems reluctant to embark on QE3 barring a renewed economic turndown while the ECB is moving further away from the role of a traditional central bank to take on the role of quasi fiscal policymaking, The German central bank, after all, is responsible for 25% of any losses that would ever be incurred by the massive Draghi balance sheet expansion. Why would anyone want to be long a currency representing a region with a 10.7% unemployment rate, rising inflation rates and free money? Mind you — the same can be said for the US (where U-6 jobless rate is even higher), which is why the best currency may be physical gold."

As Americans, we live in two worlds; the world of mainstream fantasy, and the world of day-to-day reality right outside our front doors.  One disappears the moment we shut off our television.  The other, does not…   When dealing with the economy, it is the foundation blocks that remain when the proverbial house of cards flutters away in the wind, and these basic roots are what we should be most concerned about.  While much of what we see in terms of economic news is awash in a sticky gray cloud of disinformation and uneducated opinion, there are still certain constants that we can always rely on to give us a sense of our general financial environment.  Two of these constants are supply and demand.  Central banks like the private Federal Reserve may have the ability to flood markets with fiat liquidity to skew indexes and stocks, and our government certainly has the ability to interpret employment numbers in such a way as to paint the rosiest picture possible, but ultimately, these entities cannot artificially manipulate the public into a state of demand when they are, for all intents and purposes, dead broke. 

Two weeks ago we penned "As US Debt Hits New Record, Fiscal 2012 Tax Revenues Are 10% Higher Than Debt Issuance" which unfortunately was very wrong: we completely forgot that tax revenues in the US are a two way street particularly from January through the end of tax season on April 15, when income and employment tax withholdings are offset by tax refunds as consumers rightfully claim (and in the process pad TurboTax revenues simply for having under-exempted themselves) what was overcollected by the government. Unfortunately, it also means that we showed the US in a far better fiscal light than it is in reality, because contrary to our conclusion that tax revenues are higher than debt issuance in fiscal 2012 (starting October 1, 2011), the reality is not only a mirror image, but worse, with total debt issued now surpassing net revenues (withholdings net of refunds) by a whopping 15%! In other words, for $710.7 billion issued in debt YTD (debt has risen from $14.79 trillion to $15.5 trillion), net tax revenues have risen only by $607 billion. Which means that contrary to conventional wisdom that the US collects in taxes modestly more than it issues, at least through the peak of tax refund season that is certainly not the case. It also means that little by little that neo-Keynesian ideal (where we hope we jest but are no longer sure) of all deficits being funded purely by debt issuance, is slowly coming true.

Nothing good here for our Spanish readers: while speaking at a news conference, Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria said that Spain's economy will contract by 1.7 percent this year as the government carries out drastic austerity measures. The forecast matched the International Monetary Fund's outlook for Spain's economy this year and was less optimistic than the outlooks from the country's central bank and from the European Commission. Earlier, Spain also defied the European Union, setting a 2012 deficit target at 5.8 percent of gross domestic product, a far softer goal than the 4.4 percent agreed with Brussels. More importantly, the country now anticipates that its unemployment rate will hit 24.3%. Frankly, while horrendous and worse even than in Greece (as it also implies a youth unemployment rate well into the 50%s), this is an overoptimistic number, because as noted before, Spain's unemployment soared from 21.5% to 23.3% in Q4 alone. When all is said and done, look for Spain's 2012 YE unemployment to be well over 25%. So as the economic deterioration across the PIIGS accelerates, at least the banks are "safe."

European indices are trading in minor positive territory ahead of the North American open with tentative risk appetite. This follows news that the EU leaders have signed off on the EU fiscal pact, with German Chancellor Merkel commenting that 25 out of 27 countries have signed the agreement. The effects of the ECB’s LTRO continue to trickle through as the ECB announce they received record overnight deposits of EUR 777bln from European Banks. Little in the way of data today, however UK construction PMI released earlier in the session recorded the highest rate of increase in new orders for 21 months. In the energy complex, Brent futures have come down below USD 125.00 from yesterday’s highs with WTI echoing the movements, following market reaction to the confirmation that there were no acts of sabotage on Saudi pipelines yesterday, according to Saudi officials. EUR-led currency pairs are trading down on the session, and USD/JPY continues to climb, hitting a 9 month high earlier today at 81.72.

• Brazil declares new ‘currency war’ (FT)
• Postal Cuts Are Dead Letter in Congress (WSJ)
• China state banks to boost selected property loans (Reuters)
• ECB Says Overnight Deposits Surge to Record (Bloomberg)
• Van Rompuy confirmed for 2nd term as EU Council president (Reuters) - you mean dictator
• BOJ Shirakawa: Japan consumer prices to gradually rise (Reuters)
• IMF Says Threat of Sharp Global Slowdown Eased (Reuters)
• Eurozone delays half of Greece’s funds (FT)
• BOJ Openings Can Shape Monetary Policy (Bloomberg)

All you need to read.

This situation just can't last. Or can it?