Unemployment

We already learned that the one biggest red flag in unemployment data had been raised when we found that the labor force participation rate was the lowest since 1984. Now we find that the other critical data point: average length of unemployment, just hit a new all time high of 40.4 weeks in July, up from the previous record of 39.9 in June. Someone should tell the average American who is rapidly approaching one year in average unemployment that the stock market soared on good payroll news. They will be delighted.

Change in Non-Farm Payrolls M/M 117K vs. Exp. 85K (Prev. 18K)
Change in Private Payrolls (Jul) M/M 154K vs. Exp. 113K (Prev. 57K)
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jul) M/M 24K vs. Exp. 10K (Prev. 6K)
US Average Hourly Earnings (Jul) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.0%)
US Unemployment Rate (Jul) M/M 9.1% vs. Exp. 9.2% (Prev. 9.2%)

More coming as soon as bls.gov actually comes up

Yesterday, JPM's Michael Feroli who is now undisputedly the least worst Wall Street economist (RIP Hatzius) cut his 2012 GDP forecast to under 1% net of fiscal adjustments. As of minutes ago, he just slashed his Q3 GDP from 2.5% to 1.5%. And the worst news for Obama: he will be dealing with 8.9% unemployment during his re-election campaign, which can now Rest in Peace. Speaking of RIPs, here's to you growth Hockeystick. You will be fondly forgotten.

The problem with bloated central planning is that when austerity hits, the bloat goes away, and millions of government employees suddenly find themselves trying to enter the private sector, realizing they have absolutely no real competitive and marketable skills (more or less like investment bankers and hedge fund managers). And while America has yet to even remotely sniff austerity, the unemployment rate is already set to spike, after the USPS just announced it was preparing to close 3,653 out of its 32,000 total post office sites. Per UPI: "The U.S. Postal Service is expected to announce a plan to close 3,653 post offices, mostly in small communities, in a cost-cutting measure, officials said. A USPS spokeswoman said the post offices were chosen because they get the "least amount of foot traffic and retail sales," The Wall Street Journal reported Monday." Trust the bureaucrats to try spinning this bad news as good: "They also were selected because there may be local businesses that could provide some postal services to the community, spokeswoman Sue Brennan said." Well by that logic there are private businesses that cover every aspect of the government's "job" much better, and much more efficiently, up to and including that of the Fed (sorry, that already is private). Does that mean we should outsource every aspect of the bloated centrally planned economy that America has become? Of course the answer is yes, but that just does not jive with the current iteration of kleptofascist socialism.

As long as unemployment remains high and economic activity remains no better than flat there will be pressure on the Fed to meet its full employment mandate. QE is the only trick left in their bag. That will lead to further price inflation, a shot in the arm for the financial markets, but it will not lead to a boom in industrial activity or the estimated 250,000 new jobs a month that must be created over the next five years to create "full employment."

Enough bullshit, it's time to expose the real unemployment scandal...

Two more self-explanatory charts: the number of people not in the labor force who want a job now surged to a fresh all time high 7,124 or up by a whopping 303K, while the average duration of unemployment also is at a new record of 39.9 weeks.

Absolute disaster. Total jobs per the establishment survey: +18K on expectations of 105K, Private Jobs + 57K on expectations of 132K. Last month total was revised from 54K to 25K. Combined April and May revision down 44K. The household survey was down by 445K from 139,779 to 139,334. Birth death adjustment + 131K. Complete humiliation for Wall Street's economists, the lowest prediction of whom came Bob Brusca at +60K. From the NFP: "Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in June (+18,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor  Statistics reported today. Employment in most major private-sector industries changed little over the month. Government employment continued to trend down." It is time for Joe LaVorgna to retire, with his 175K forecast, or off by a factor of 972%.

GEITHNER SAID TO CONSIDER LEAVING TREASURY AFTER BUDGET DEAL

Explains why the market just ripped.

In the meantime, a cubicle at 270 Park is being prepared.

The Fed has just taken one small step to acknowledging reality... and Zero Hedge's keyword of 2011: stagflation. The FOMC  released its revised 2011-2013 economic forecast, which saw GDP getting slashed, while hiking its inflation and unemployment projections. Specifically, 2011 GDP was lowered from 3.2% to 2.8% even as it raised its average unemployment forecast from 8.6% to 8.8%.

According to a just released report by the BLS, the average unemployed American looked for a job for about 5 months, or 20 weeks, before giving up in 2010. This is a two and a half times extension in the period of disenchantment over the past 3 years, when it took just 8.5 week for the unemployed to give up as recently as 2007. Gradually the feeling of entitlement in America's labor pool seems to be deflating. Alas, it also means that the labor force participation, which continues to be at a 25 year low, will likely not return to recent highs as more and more people are now unemployed for longer, and thus lose marketable employment skills, meaning that the current jump in unemployment is, as many have feared, entirely structural and there is nothing cyclical about it. Additionally, the lucky unemployed succeeded in finding a job in about 10 weeks in 2010, a doubling from 2007's median 5 week period of successful job searching. The issue however is that in May 6.2 million had been out of work for more than six months and more than 4 million haven’t work in more than a year. These are people who are now effectively pushed out of the labor force. Bottom line: perhaps the Fed should just give up on its maximum employment mandate which it now appears to be a complete failure, and just focus on generating hyperinflation which alas will soon be the only way out of the complete disaster America will find itself in in under a year when total US debt is about 120% of GDP.

No, QE3 is NOT the answer ...

It was difficult rerunning this chart with a straight face, make that near impossible, but here are the results. Following the most recent NFP disappointment, the simple math indicates that for the US to return to its December 2007 unemployment, when factoring in the natural growth of the labor force of 90k people a month, the economy will need to add 250k jobs a month for the next 66 months or until the end of Obama's now very implausible second term. Then again, considering what the alternatives are, we can guarantee that the 2012-2016 period in terms of job creation will definitely not look like what is presented on the chart below.

Two charts that confirm that the US economy is, and has been for the past 3 years, in nothing short of a depression...

Massive collapse in the American employment situation: May NFP at 54K, down from 244K, and not only below consensus of 165K, but below the lowest economist prediction of 65K. Private payrolls increased just 83K on expectations of 170K. Manufacturing payroll dropped 5K on expectation sof a 10K rise.  The unemployment rate was 9.1%, although U-6 declined from 15.9% t 15.8%. The absolute number of unemployed increased fom 13.747 million to 13.914 million. For the third month in a row the Labor Force Participation rate remained flat at 64.2%.