Unemployment

On the surface, the decrease in unemployment and the increase in factory orders seem encouraging. But if we dig a little deeper, the numbers tell a different story. Much of these "gains" relate to stimulus and aren't real and will dissipate once stimulus wears off.

Jan Hatzius' mea culpa, after the BLS decided to kick the the NFP consensus squarely in the shins, is lacking. Most notable the discussion about lagging wage increases: you can't have inflation when people are making less then (or the same as) they used to make in nominal terms.Where is the marginal difference coming from: why the JPMorgan Chase Gold-plated Tungsten credit card of course.

Hatzius' -100,000 is likely right, as usual, and the government will simply unrefudge all the data retroactively. Can't have the Chairman's reconfirmation be accompanied by factual economic releases. Especially not from the econometric champions at the BLS.

Even as CNBC, which seems to be unaware it is now under new ownership and can stop selling GE stock all day, every day (will Cramer be allowed to pump the worthless equities of competitor cable and satellite companies going forward? Inquiring minds want to know), could not stop praising the fabulous improvement in continuing claims which plummeted by a whopping 5,000 from 462k to 457k, one number that everyone ignored, is the explosion in Emergency Unemployment Compensation - yes, the same name for insurance benefits as they roll beyond their standard expiration horizon, and which the Administration is set on extending to cover a period from now to infinity. That number skyrocketed by 265,300 in one week to an all time record of 3,859,553 for the week ending November 14, from 3,594,253 in the prior week.

BLS data confirms that the unemployment pictures is getting worse with 29 states reporting an increase in state joblessness levels. The states with the highest levels on unemployment levels were the usual suspects: Michigan (15.1%), Nevada (13%), Rhode Island (12.9%), California (12.5%), South Carolina (12.1%) and D.C. (11.9%). The numbers continued to deteriorate in California (2.5% increase in unemployment), D.C. (4.4%), New York (1.1%), with some of the worst monthly performance noted in the traditionally better states: Wyoming (8.8%), Arkansas (7%), Mississippi (6.5%) and Alaska (6%).

The base case number one takes the view that high yield default rates are peaking and will start to drop from this level now. The rate of unemployment ranges from 10% to 11.5% with this given scenario. In the base case number two, I am using a composite of both peaks in 1991 and 2002 to suggest that default rates may carry upward one percent more. The resulting effect on unemployment targets will range from 11% to 13.5%. In our final analysis base case number three will use the peak at 13% in default rates established in 1991. Unemployment rates in this scenario show a range of 12.5% and 15% before possibly peaking.

While Bernanke is criticizing the banks one the one hand, Bernanke is patting the banks on the back with the other hand and giving them a big wink.

Contrary to what you might have heard, higher military spending leads to HIGHER unemployment and lower GDP...

In addition to PPT or other gaming of the stock market, here is another reason it can go up while jobs are crashing downward ...

The ever increasing unemployed are buying Kindles to read all about their predicament.

Major deterioration in both categories, worse than estimates. Market not shooting up for some reason.

The length of time the average unemployed has been without a job has just passed an all time record 26 weeks. This is the longest time average unemployed American has been jobless since this data series has been recorded. In other news, as this data point is obviously unspinnable positively for general consumption, expect the dollar to shortly hit zero, as the stock market approaches to reach infinity.

There were no notable movers in the September BLS State unemployment report: the worst states were the usual suspects: Michigan, Nevada, Rhode Island, California, and South Carolina, while the states that have 8 people to share among them, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Utah and Iowa, continued being the best performers.

The economy may be out of the recession. Markets have turned around. But the key thing weighing on any American’s mind with a job is his fear of losing it. Now at a 26-year high of 9.8%- household foreclosures rose more than 5% from summer to fall, as federal assistance efforts are overwhelmed by a flood of unemployed.

The unemployment rate in California has hit another record, at 12.2%, while the temporary reprieve in Michigan, which may have been due to a temporary pick up in labor as a result of CfC, is back to losing jobs: after hitting a record 15.2% in June, and dropping to 15% in July, the August unemployment rate is once again at the 15.2% high. Only 17 states reported declining unemployment rates in August, led by Indiana (-6.6%), Colorado (-6.4%) and Virginia (-5.8%). On the other end, the biggest labor losers were: New Mexico: 7.1%, Nevada: 5.6%, Louisiana: 5.4%, District of Columbia: 4.7%, and New York: 4.7%.