Unemployment

There were no notable movers in the September BLS State unemployment report: the worst states were the usual suspects: Michigan, Nevada, Rhode Island, California, and South Carolina, while the states that have 8 people to share among them, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Utah and Iowa, continued being the best performers.

The economy may be out of the recession. Markets have turned around. But the key thing weighing on any American’s mind with a job is his fear of losing it. Now at a 26-year high of 9.8%- household foreclosures rose more than 5% from summer to fall, as federal assistance efforts are overwhelmed by a flood of unemployed.

The unemployment rate in California has hit another record, at 12.2%, while the temporary reprieve in Michigan, which may have been due to a temporary pick up in labor as a result of CfC, is back to losing jobs: after hitting a record 15.2% in June, and dropping to 15% in July, the August unemployment rate is once again at the 15.2% high. Only 17 states reported declining unemployment rates in August, led by Indiana (-6.6%), Colorado (-6.4%) and Virginia (-5.8%). On the other end, the biggest labor losers were: New Mexico: 7.1%, Nevada: 5.6%, Louisiana: 5.4%, District of Columbia: 4.7%, and New York: 4.7%.

"Unemployment insurance benefits have been on an upward trend over the past two
decades, partially reversing an earlier decline. The trend is associated with shifts toward a
higher share of job losers among the unemployed and longer durations of unemployment,
which may cause benefits to lapse for some recipients as labor market weakness persists." - Aisling Cleary, FRBSF

"As an aside, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also publishes a number from the Household survey that is comparable to the nonfarm survey (dubbed the population and payroll-adjusted Household number), and on this basis, employment sank — brace yourself — by over 1 million, which is unprecedented. We shall see if the nattering nabobs of positivity discuss that particularly statistic in their post-payroll assessments; we are not exactly holding our breath." - David Rosenberg

As markets digest the worse, yet somehow better, than expected 9.7% unemployment, the real state of the labor market is much worse, as indicated by the U-6 number, which has hit a recent record of 16.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis. As a reminder, the "U-6 represents total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers." In other words, in reality the U.S. labor market is likely about as bad as Spain in terms of undoctored jobless data.

The most recent BLS State unemployment data is out. State by state unemployment increased by 1.0% on average (unweighted) from June to July.

The BLS has released the most recent mass layoff event and initial jobless claim data. The initial claimant data has dropped by about 34k month over month, and is 70.7% higher on a trailing twelve month basis. Comparable data for the initial jobless claims apps.

The most recent BLS State unemployment data is out. At this rate of job loss, Michigan will see 100% unemployment in about one year (give or take). Otherwise, state by state unemployment increased by 2.8% on average (unweighted) from May until June.

The economic mavens in DC have totally lost it. Now an increase in unemployment will allegedly lead to a rebound in GDP??? And just who is supposed to buy this garbage any more?

Developing story: this means that unemployment will either be allowed to reach its true, "unadjusted" levels in the low teens shortly, or will be kept artificially low for 2-3 months, allowing that to be spun as a green shoot by CNBC. Time will tell.

Developing story: this means that unemployment will either be allowed to reach its true, "unadjusted" levels in the low teens shortly, or will be kept artificially low for 2-3 months, allowing that to be spun as a green shoot by CNBC. Time will tell.

The state unemployment data from the BLS is likely significantly flawed but it makes sense to visualize it nonetheless. The chart below demonstrates both the monthly change in unemployment (April - May 2009) as well as the year-over-year increase in state unemployment (vs. May 2008). Notably, Michigan was in a world of pain even before the bankruprtcy of GM and Chrysler. The green shoot: seems cattle ranchers are in high demand in N/S Dakota and Wyoming.

The state unemployment data from the BLS is likely significantly flawed but it makes sense to visualize it nonetheless. The chart below demonstrates both the monthly change in unemployment (April - May 2009) as well as the year-over-year increase in state unemployment (vs. May 2008). Notably, Michigan was in a world of pain even before the bankruprtcy of GM and Chrysler. The green shoot: seems cattle ranchers are in high demand in N/S Dakota and Wyoming.

The state unemployment data from the BLS is likely significantly flawed but it makes sense to visualize it nonetheless. The chart below demonstrates both the monthly change in unemployment (April - May 2009) as well as the year-over-year increase in state unemployment (vs. May 2008). Notably, Michigan was in a world of pain even before the bankruprtcy of GM and Chrysler. The green shoot: seems cattle ranchers are in high demand in N/S Dakota and Wyoming.