Unemployment

Some realistic downside projections: U3: 17-21%; U6: 30-37%.

Best case scenario: U3: 14-17%; U6: 26-31%

And here is what Bernanke, and everyone else who wonders where we are headed, should be looking at:

Total unemployment

2s10s schizophrenia

2 year skyrocketing

Total unemployment

2s10s schizophrenia

2 year skyrocketing

Total unemployment

2s10s schizophrenia

2 year skyrocketing

TrimTabs Investment Research estimated today that the U.S. economy shed 745,000 jobs in April (20,000 more than their March job loss estimates) as wages and salaries plunged an adjusted 5.7% year-over-year. TrimTabs estimated that the economy shed a record 5 million jobs in the past 12 months.

"If job losses continue at the present rate, the unemployment rate could top 10% by summer," said TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman.

John Williams, who runs the great Shadow Government Statistics site, presents the true numbers behind today's "seriously flawed BLS payroll reporting." The upside bias coming out of the BLS is almost scandalous: one wonders how much "push from above" there is to concoct these numbers.

John Williams, who runs the great Shadow Government Statistics site, presents the true numbers behind today's "seriously flawed BLS payroll reporting." The upside bias coming out of the BLS is almost scandalous: one wonders how much "push from above" there is to concoct these numbers.

John Williams, who runs the great Shadow Government Statistics site, presents the true numbers behind today's "seriously flawed BLS payroll reporting." The upside bias coming out of the BLS is almost scandalous: one wonders how much "push from above" there is to concoct these numbers.

Initial jobless claims: upward revision for February to 657K, March survey: 650K, actual 669K

Continuing claims: upward revision for February to 5567K, March survey: 5590K, actual 5728K

Initial jobless claims: upward revision for February to 657K, March survey: 650K, actual 669K

Continuing claims: upward revision for February to 5567K, March survey: 5590K, actual 5728K

Reader Michael points out an interesting observation on the lagging versus coincident nature of unemployment as an indicator of economic health. His thoughts below:

I am skeptical of a lot of the "good news", and note that a recent mini-bounce in the Conference Board Leading Indicator was only due to the expansion in the money supply; all other variables were negative. I also think Rosenberg is on the right track in terms of higher than expected savings rates, and the over-extrapolation of recent housing and production data.

Reader Michael points out an interesting observation on the lagging versus coincident nature of unemployment as an indicator of economic health. His thoughts below:

I am skeptical of a lot of the "good news", and note that a recent mini-bounce in the Conference Board Leading Indicator was only due to the expansion in the money supply; all other variables were negative. I also think Rosenberg is on the right track in terms of higher than expected savings rates, and the over-extrapolation of recent housing and production data.

12.5 million people unemployed. 731k people have given up looking for work.

Nonfarm payrolls -651k.

Huge downward January payroll revisions: -655k versus prior indicated at -598k.

4.4 million jobs lost since December 2007.

Apparently a downward surprise of 0.2% in unemployment was terrific based on futures.

Despite the schizo market action yet again (market is up because yen is down, yen is down because market is up), we wanted to go back to today's deplorable unemployment number.

Despite the schizo market action yet again (market is up because yen is down, yen is down because market is up), we wanted to go back to today's deplorable unemployment number.