Unemployment

The Housing Moment Investors Dread Is Here

...Yes, it’s the moment buyers have been waiting for. It is also the moment private equity investors, those who’ve crowded out natural buyers, have been dreading.

Fed's Bullard Slams Recovery Narrative, Confirms Fed Top-Ticked Economy; Hints At Fed Policy Error

In a surprisingly candid discussion of the recent economic slowdown, St. Louis Fed president said growth is unlikely “to move meaningfully” this year from the current trend of about 2% and that inflation expectations “have surprised to the downside.” adding that financial market readings since the March decision have been opposite of expectations. "This may suggest that the FOMC’s contemplated policy rate path is overly aggressive relative to actual incoming data."

Global Markets Rebound To End Volatile Week, As Trump Rout Fades

Two days after the biggest rout in US stocks in 8 months, and one day after Brazil's stock market was halted due to a circuit breaker, wiping out out 8.8% of its market cap, traders are eager to put it all in the rearview mirror and in a quiet session on the last day of the week, S&P futures are set for a green open, up 0.2%, in line with Asian and European markets, all looking to close the week on a positive note.

Evercore: If Markets Drop More, Don't Expect To Be Bailed Out By The Fed This Time

"With the US equity market sell-off intensifying Wednesday afternoon, a number of clients have asked at what point the Fed would ride to the rescue. Our answer is that this time the cavalry is not coming — at least not unless we see something much larger — at least a 5 - 10 per cent type correction and maybe not immediately even then."

Frontrunning: May 18

  • FBI’s Russia Probe Gains Credibility With Mueller In Charge (BBG)
  • Trump storm hits stocks again but dollar steadies (Reuters)
  • Flynn stopped military plan Turkey opposed – after being paid as its agent (McClatchy)
  • Kremlin declines to comment on probe of Trump ties with Russia (Reuters)
  • Trump To Announce $350bn Saudi Arabia Arms Deal – One Of Largest Ever (Ind)

Trumpquake: Futures Wipe Out Month's Gains In One Session, VIX Spikes

Growing concerns over the turmoil engulfing President Donald Trump’s administration weighed on risk appetite, sending global stocks and US futures lower, pressuring the dollar while boosting yen, gold and VIX. The sharp drop has seen the gains over the past month wiped out in one session.

Goldman Turns Less Confident On June, September Rate Hikes

"the risk to our near-term funds rate view is now slightly greater, largely because the range of plausible outcomes has widened. We have shaved our subjective odds of a June rate hike to 80%, from 90% earlier, and have also become a bit less confident in a September hike" - Goldman

The Other Shoe Drops: Prime Auto Loan Losses Surge As Recoveries Tumble

With subprime auto loan delinquencies already surpassing losses last seen in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, the next shoe has dropped as losses in bonds tied to prime auto loans surged in recent months from a year ago, with 60+ day delinquencies and default rates in Prime ABS pools doubling from post-crisis lows.