Unemployment

Tyler Durden's picture

Fed Whisperer Hilsenrath Confirms 'All-Clear' For December Rate-Hike





"Friday’s employment report clears the way for the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates by a quarter-percentage point at its Dec. 15-16 policy meeting, ending seven years of near-zero interest rates."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

November Jobs Surge 211K, Higher Than Expected: December Rate Hike Looms Despite Slump In Weekly Earnings





It appears the December rate hike is now cemented following the BLS' report that November jobs rose by 211K, higher than the 200K expected, and well above Janet Yellen's "whisper" number of just 100,000 being sufficient. This follows an even stronger revision to the October number from 271K to a whopping 298K. The unemployment rate remained flat at 5.00%, in line with expectations, while hourly earnings rose 0.2% in November, just as expected.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why This Sucker Is Going Down... Again





So how do you grow household wealth by $18 trillion in the face of these dismal real world trends? In a word, with a printing press. But what happened today is that Draghi showed he is out of tricks and Yellen confessed she is out of excuses. Yes, this sucker is going down. And this time all the misguided economics professors turned central bankers in the world will be powerless to reverse the plunge.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Previewing The "Most Important Jobs Report Ever" - What Wall Street Expects





There is a high hurdle following October's surprisingly strong gain of 271,000 jobs. On the other hand, Wall Street is confident we would have to see a significantly lower number, somewhere in the 100,000 range or even lower, — and weakness in other parts of the report, such as the unemployment rate, hourly wages and weekly hours — for the FOMC to postpone a rate hike into next year.

 
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Futures Rebound On Hope Today's "Most Important Ever" Jobs Number Will Not "Draghi" The Market





Optimism in US equity futures appears to have returned, and as of this moment US equity futures are higher by 9 points to 2060 as the attention shifts to what, according to BofA, is truly the most important ever. It is unclear just how the algos would take a second consecutive major disappointment in a row: should today's NFP print be well below the 200,000 consensus, December rate hike odd will tumble and the EUR will surge even more after declining modestly from overnight highs just below 1.10, leading to even more losses in European equities and spilling over to the US. 

 
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RANsquawk Preview: Nonfarm Payrolls 4th December 2015





 

November’s NFP release is in strong focus after the stellar reading in October which saw the largest increase this year at 271K additions. Additionally, unemployment is expecting to remain at 5% which will maintain the reading at the lowest level since Apr’08. Furthermore, average hourly earnings are typically in focus due to being a key indicator of wage inflation for the Fed.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Citi Turns Bearish On Stocks On "Richer And Richer" Markets, Sees 65% Recession Probability; Janet Yellen Disagrees





"Given the surge back towards the all-time highs in the S&P 500, we think that the best might be over for US equities and that indices might range trade more in 2016. We have downgraded US equities to neutral. This takes our overall equity weighting down to neutral, in many respects an extension of what we’ve been doing for most of this year as richer and richer asset markets, against a global background of economic risks, have made us more cautious."

 
EconMatters's picture

Buy the Rumor and Sell the News Alive in Forex Markets





They aren`t about to stand for a strong dollar in a world where it is a competitive advantage to devalue currencies from a multinational profits, tourism and global trading perspective.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Janet Yellen Explains To Congress How Devoted She Is To Americans' Interests - Live Feed





Having yesterday explained how The Fed is "devoted" to Americans' interests and how "excited" she is to raise rates, Janet Yellen is set to face the Joint Economic Committee of Congress today... to explain to them how - in her mind - everything is awesome enough to hike rates, despite Chinese stocks crashing again, carnage in commodities, a revenues recession, plunging EBITDA, a collapse in US manufacturing, housing rolling over, and auto sales fading (light vehicle incentives up 14% YoY). Following the renewed volatility in markets, thanks to Draghi, the question is will Yellen be a little more hawkish given the room the ECB has given her?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Draghi Holds Water Pistol Press Party - Live Feed





Update: PSPP extended to March 2017 "or beyond", regional debt added to QE-eligible asset pool

Having just let everyone down with a less-than-spectacular 10 bps depo rate cut, Mario Draghi will now try to appease a spoiled market by announcing an expansion and/or an extension of PSPP. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Brazil Devolves Into Full-Blown Political Crisis With Launch Of Impeachment Proceedings Against President Rouseff





Moments ago Brazil lower house chief Eduardo Cunha announced that he has accepted an impeachment request filed by Helio Bicudo. Cunha told reporters in Brasilia that the decision is not political, and while one can debate that, the implications will have a tremendous impact on both Brazil's political situation not to mention its already imploding economy. Cunha told reporters in Brasilia on Wednesday he "profoundly regrets" what’s happening. "May our country overcome this process." The impeachment process could take months, involving several votes in Congress that ultimately may result in the president’s ouster.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Credit Card Data Reveals First Holiday Spending Decline Since The Recession





It's official: the start to the holiday shopping has been a disaster, and it's not simply due to a shift to online spending.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Hawkish" Yellen Sends US Dollar Surging Above 100 To 12-Year Highs





Great news right? Or is the entire rest of the world exporting deflation to America... and The Fed waving it in?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Buy The Dips! What Could Possibly Go Wrong?" Axel Merk Warns "A Hell Of A Lot"





The lack of fear in risky assets is another way of saying that risk premia have been low, or as we also like to put it, that complacency has been high. Not fully appreciative of this inherent risk, it seems many investors have refrained from rebalancing their portfolios, and bought the dips instead. We believe the Fed’s efforts to engineer an exit from its ultra-low monetary policy should get risk premia to rise once again, that if fear should come back to the market, volatility should rise, creating headwinds to ‘risky’ assets, including equities. That said, this isn’t an overnight process, as the ‘buy the dip’ mentality has taken years to be established. Conversely, it may take months, if not years, for investors to shift focus to capital preservation, i.e. to sell into rallies instead.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

European Stocks Jump As Inflation Disappoints, US Futures Flat Ahead Of Yellen Speech





It is only logical that a day after the S&P500 surged, hitting Goldman's 2016 target of 2,100 more than a year early because the US manufacturing sector entered into a recession, that Europe would follow and when Eurostat reported an hour ago that European headline inflation of 0.1% missed expectations of a modest 0.2% increase (core rising 0.9% vs Exp. 1.1%), European stocks predictably surged not on any improvement to fundamentals of course, but simply because the EURUSD stumbled once more, sliding by 40 pips to a session low below the 1.06 level.

 
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