While the 25 bps rate hike was a given, the question on everyone's mind was how many rate hikes does the Fed envision for 2017. The answer, somewhat surprisingly, is three, an increase of one compared to the September meeting.
When it comes to today's Fed decision, there is little doubt: a 25 bps rate hike, the first in 2016 and only the second since the financial crisis, is now assured: all 103 Bloomberg-surveyed economists expect a 25bp increase, and the market agrees pricing in a 100% probability of a rate hike. So what does matter? Here is a selection of sellside opinions, summarizing they key things to watch for in today's FOMC statement.
European stocks slipped from an 11 month high, Asian stocks and S&P futures were flat as caution pervades global markets before the Federal Reserve’s expected interest-rate hike on Wednesday. Treasuries slipped, after reaching the highest level in more than two years. Oil in New York slid to near $52 a barrel after API showed a build in inventories, and currencies of commodity-exporting nations fell. Gold headed for its biggest gain in a week.
Just about everyone expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise its target interest rate today. But the decision to raise rates won’t have come about because of any strong economic data, be it inflation hovering around the Fed’s target or the low unemployment rate showing strength in the labor market. So why the green light now?
Research into "renegade elector" Chris Suprun’s bizarre and unexplained flip-flop against President-elect Donald J. Trump has turned up Ashley Madison data, damning bankruptcy records, and a series of P.O. boxes and what appears to be an association with a payday loan scam site.
“Revolution never comes with a warning,” and this is because it usually seethes on the back burner until the top blows off. Only time will tell if one occurs in the U.S. as a result of these elections and any possible post-election chicanery, but make no mistake: the citizens are “keyed up” and we may just see it.
The key economic releases this week are retail sales on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday. The key market-moving event will be the December FOMC statement released on Wednesday at 2PM. In addition, there is one scheduled speaking engagement by Richmond Fed President Lacker on Friday.
The EU and the euro project have been an economic disaster for all participants, including Germany, which will eventually be forced to write off the hard-earned savings she has lent to other Eurozone members. We know, with absolute certainty, that the euro will self-destruct and the Eurozone will disintegrate. We know this for one reason above all...
Blackrock's chief multi-asset strategist summed up tomorrow's anxiously awaited ECB meeting best by noting that "what’s priced into markets is a fully fledged extension of the [bond-buying] program," but warns that, thanks to a muted reaction to the Italy vote and recent encouraging data, "there’s a significant chance the ECB disappoints markets." As bond traders bet on a six-month QE extension, Citi warns, anything less will be seen as hawkish and send EUR surging.