There is no mystery anywhere to be found in the fact that US retail sales don’t follow the jobs trend. Not if you look at what kind of jobs they are, let alone at all the other made up and manipulated numbers that are being thrown around about the US economy. The only mystery is why everyone persists in talking about a recovery. That recovery will never come, simply because all 90% of Americans do is pay for the other 10% to get richer. There are many other factors, but that all by itself makes a recovery a mathematical mirage.
With all deference to Dr. Richard Fisher, the surging dollar is not good for either the economy or ultimately a stronger labor market. This is particularly the case when the dollar is only stronger because the rest of the world is on the brink of recession and or deflation. The negative impact of a surging dollar in a weak economic environment will more than likely outweigh any positive inputs for the U.S. consumer. Time will tell, but the evidence is mounting that the we are likely closer to the end of the current economic cycle than the beginning.
Dear Federal Reserve, we have just solved the biggest riddle that your "smartest economist PhDs in the room" have been unable to figure out for the past year...
"While equity prices look expensive relative to real economic activity, they are arguably cheap relative to bond valuations. S&P 500 earning yields are similar to BB/B bond yields, as opposed to A/BBB yields historically, indicating excessive yield-seeking behavior in the face of reduced bond market liquidity," UBS cautions.
"...this hiking cycle is nothing like any experienced before and the key to PEs will be how LT yields react. But in the meantime, EPS risk remains to the downside on FX, whereas the debate on magnitude of Fed hikes and how bond yields and PEs react will last all year... We see risk of a near-term 9% dip."
The computerisation of European jobs - who will win and who will lose from the impact of new technology onto old areas of employment?
Simply put - the Greek economy still consumes more than it earns. Despite a 25% contraction in its economy, a plunge in domestic consumption and a sharp decline in imports, as WSJ reports, Greece is still exporting less than it imports, i.e. its current account is still negative. The reason... Shipping.
Financial markets should actually be begging the Fed for a June 25 basis point rate hike, the alternative is going to hurt a lot more...
Yields can always go lower… but at some point investors will have to ask, “how much am I willing to pay the Government to sit on my money? 1%? 2%? 3%?”
... gradually, from one scare to another, many – and especially those who have nothing left to lose – have given up looking for defenses, whether individual or collective, and have given in to the sin of sloth. They are not lazy or indifferent but experiencing emotional apathy. It has become a certainty that our destruction is much worse than a self-fulfilling prophecy: It has been orchestrated from outside. Either to punish the “lazy Greeks” or to warn others being tempted into believing that the European Union – as it is today, as a herald of a policy of austerity that can’t even be backed by the numbers – is repulsive rather than attractive.
The US economic recovery continues as the number of homeless in New York's shelters rises 50% in three years. De Blasio says New York needs to take "immediate and bold steps" to combat the worsening problem.
Per capita energy consumption remains at recession levels. There are other factors at work here, of course, but if we combine these data series, we get a picture not of robust growth akin to previous post-recession periods, but a "recovery" that by previous standards remains recession-bound.
Last month the Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, Japan’s Naoyuki Shinohara, openly stated that emerging markets in Asia should begin the process of de-dollarisation “to mitigate against external shocks and constraining the central bank’s ability as lender of last resort.”