Unemployment

Frontrunning: April 20

  • White House to risk shutdown as Trump searches for “win” (Politico)
  • Saudi Minister Wants OPEC Oil-Production Deal Extended, Perhaps for Less Than 6 Months (WSJ)
  • Russia denies Reuters report think tank drew up plan to sway U.S. election (Reuters)
  • Fed's Kaplan: Three rate rises this year 'still a good baseline' (Reuters)
  • Ex-Arconic CEO Sent Vague Threat to Hedge-Fund Boss (WSJ)

"The Nightmare Scenario" And Everything Else: The Full French Election Matrix

With the start of the French election just days away, investors are contemplating a "nightmare scenario": a choice between far-left and far-right candidates.  Currently, polls are very close, with four candidates in the 18-24% range of voting intentions. Given the  polls’ margins for error, six permutations look possible for round 2.

Frontrunning: April 19

  • As Trump warned N. Korea, 'armada' headed to Australia (Reuters)
  • Threat of Carrier Heading to Koreas Wasn’t All It Seemed (WSJ)
  • Markets Start to Ponder the $13 Trillion Asset Gorilla in the Room (BBG)
  • Investors’ Nightmare Scenario Takes Shape in French Election (WSJ)
  • Venezuelan opposition to hold 'mother of all marches' against Maduro (Reuters)

Goldman Asks: Are Markets Rationally, Or Irrationally, Exuberant?

The distinction between rational and irrational sentiment matters. If improvements in sentiment “rationally” reflect recent macro data or “news” about future developments, they likely foreshadow stronger growth. But to the extent that sentiments are “irrational,” they leave the economy more vulnerable to cycles of overheating and correction.

"Hell To Pay"

"No doubt, there’s hell to pay for 100 years of ever escalating financial insanity.  Take it in stride.  The downside is here and it’s not going away any time soon."

Former UBS Chairman: "The EU Was A Great Idea But It Has Been Ridden To Death"

"Putting it somewhat simply, the EU, after making good progress in the early years and serving peace, made two fundamental mistakes since the Maastricht Treaty that have become inherited burdens today, and that we would do better to get rid of. They are closely tied and together form the Gordian knot of the continent..."

If An Electorate Falls In The Forest, Is Their Voice Heard?

If there’s one lesson Europeans can glean from their allies across the Atlantic, it’s that bullets can be dodged, but not indefinitely. As we are learning the hard way, necessary reforms are challenging to enact. Avoidance, though, will only succeed in feeding anger and despair. The longer the voices of the desperate go unheard, as just so many silently falling trees in the forest, the more piercing their cries will be in the end.

S&P Futures Slide Ahead Of Bank Earnings

S&P futures extended their Wednesday decline, dropping in the overnight session with banking shares in focus ahead of results from JPMorgan and Citigroup. European stocks likewise retreated along with the dollar, while Asian shares were mixed.

The End Of Ultra-Easy Money?

Is this the end of stimulative monetary policy? Only until the Fed and the academicians realize their Goldilocks economy is sham and they have to double down to prevent another recession. Because stimulus is all they know how to do. And they reject completely the benefits of a healthy, healing, old-fashioned depression.

Thomas Frank: America In The Age Of Hypocrisy, Hubris, And Greed

"The whole world wants to know about what the hell is happening with us... There was time when average Americans could be counted upon to know correctly whether the country was going up or down... Our share of these great good times was zero, folks."

Fed's Kaplan Warns Trump "US Too Levered To Use Debt For Growth"

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan had lots to say this morning that, for now, the market has chosen to ignore. He warned "we are highly leveraged" implicitly warning President Trump that the country’s ability to boost growth through debt is limited (thanks to President Obama's doubling of the national debt as The Fed held rates at zero during his term?)