Caution is called for because of Fed’s limited ability to reduce policy rate, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley says, Dudley comments in text of speech in Bridgeport, CT. “Although the downside risks have diminished since earlier in the year, I still judge the balance of risks to my inflation and growth outlooks to be tilted slightly to the downside”
Nomura's Bob "The Bear" Janjuah: "The Question Is What Would Be Necessary For The Fed To Do QE Or NIRP"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/07/2016 20:32 -0400
"My view is still that the Fed does not actually do anything more than jaw-bone until or unless the S&P500 cash index is into the 1500s and the outlook for growth, employment and inflation get significantly worse – perhaps with the unemployment rate inching higher not lower.... I am also even more convinced now that we are about 10 months through a multi-year bear market that likely won’t bottom until late 2017 or early 2018. This will be a stair-step decline with all the strength to the downside punctuated by occasional (very) violent bear market counter-trend rallies driven by short covering, hope and residual belief in policymakers"
What's a Couple Hundred Trillion Benjamins Between Friends?
Today at 5:30pm, the four people who have done more to shape the U.S. and global economy in the past four decades more than anyone else, will sit down to discuss their respective philosophies and explain how they see the present and future of the world. At that time, Janet Yellen will appear with her predecessors Ben S. Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker for a round table discussion. The event at the International House marks the first time the four Fed chiefs have gathered for a joint public appearance.
Whenever the topic of recession comes up, the mainstream and especially economists (redundant) become quite defensive about the possibility. Just a few days ago, presidential candidate Donald Trump claimed the US was headed for “a very massive recession” and that it was “a terrible time right now.” The Washington Post, as you would expect, was skeptical of the claim because orthodox economics will have none of it, writing that Trump is “embracing a distinctly gloomy view of the economy that counters mainstream economic forecasts," because there is no obvious recession, only unexplained (to the mainstream and economists) slowdowns, nobody feels the boiling water...
More than 40% of Americans who borrowed from the government’s main student-loan program aren’t making payments or are behind on more than $200 billion owed, raising worries that millions of them may never repay. Officials acknowledge that a large pool of borrowers have essentially fallen off the radar. The Education Department has assembled a “behavioral sciences unit” to study the psychology of borrowers and why they don’t repay. “We obviously have not cracked that nut but we want to keep working on it,” said Ted Mitchell, the Education Department’s under secretary. He said many defaulted borrowers dropped out of school and are underemployed.
Will the Fed be able to keep the game going? In a word, no. We’ve already seen that even the tiniest of interest rate hikes has gone hand in hand with a huge drop in the markets. Furthermore, the Fed’s subsidies to the banks are now on the order of $11 billion annually, but if they want to raise the fed funds rate to, say, 2 percent, then the annual payment would swell to more than $40 billion.
With only four month to go until the Brazil summer olympics, only half of the tickets have been sold. Brazil’s new minister of sports Ricardo Leyser suggested that the Brazilian government may purchase tickets that will be distributed to public schools. He said public officials must also work to boost worldwide confidence in Rio's ability to host the games and ensure travelers' safety.
In what he assures will be "an easy decision," Donald Trump has released details of his plan to "compel Mexico to pay for the wall." In a 600 word statement, Trump proposes, in a potentially devastating move for Mexico’s economy, to block billions of dollars in payments immigrants send back home until the nation made "a one-time payment of $5-10 billion" to the U.S.
Authored by Steve H. Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke.
Last week, a slew of politicians in California, New York, and the United Kingdom embraced higher minimum wages.
The market's slumberous levitation of the past month, in which yesterday's -0.3% drop was the second largest in 4 weeks and in which the market had gone for 15 consecutive days without a 1% S&P 500 move (in March 2015 the sasme streak ended at day 16) may be about to end, after an overnight session, the polar opposite of yesterday's smooth sailing, which has seen a sudden return of global risk off mood.
Volatility (VIX) is now at its lowest level since before the August sell-off last summer yet CS Fear Barometer remains elevated leaving the spread between the two options-market-based indicators is at its widest ever. With the VIX ETF complex accounting for a record 85% of the outstanding open interest in the VIX futures market, the tail and the dog are now wagging each other in increasingly unstable trends, as Goldman sums up, the options market seems to be questioning the quality of the rally and continues to price in more adverse outcomes.
The longer the Fed perpetuates today’s massive 24X bubble with soporific open mouth interventions like Yellen’s pathetic speech last week, the more violent and traumatic the risk asset implosion will ultimately be. You would think our monetary politburo might at least notice that after trading in no man’s land between 1870 and 2130 on the S&P 500 for the past 700 days, the casino is positioned exactly where it stood in 2007 and 2000. Simple Janet has attained a new milestone as a public menace with her speech to the Economic Club of New York. It amounted to yelling “stay” in a burning theater!
Boomers aren’t retiring en mass because they can’t afford to retire. The labor participation rate of the younger generations is being negatively impacted by the non-retirement of Boomers. This is called the trickle down effect from unintended consequences. The establishment has strip mined the wealth of the country, leaving a barren wasteland in its wake, creating a seething populace, seeking perpetrators to blame.
- Ties between Germany and Russia enter new chill (Reuters)
- Tax authorities begin probes into some people named in Panama Papers leak (Reuters)
- SEC investigates ex-JPMorgan debt traders (FT)
- Who Will Win Wisconsin? Here Are Six Credible Predictions (BBG)
- Victim in Wall St. Scheme Was a Classmate of Its Accused Architect (NYT)