Unemployment

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Martin Armstrong Warns "QE Has Failed... Central Banks Are Simply Trapped"





The central banks are simply trapped. They have bought in bonds under the theory that this will stimulate the economy by injecting cash. But there are several problems with this entire concept. This is an elitist view to say the least for the money injected does not stimulate the economy for it never reaches the consumer. This attempt to stimulate by increasing the money supply assumes that it does not matter who has the money... The attempt to “manage” the economy from a macro level without considering the capital flow within the system is leading to disaster.

 
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Brazil Releases Shocking GDP "Obituary": "It's Mutated Into An Outright Depression," Goldman Exclaims





"At first read, the report recalls an obituary. There is no room for any growth in the coming quarters. The situation is really, really bad."

 
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The 'Goldilocks' Warning





The problem of suggesting that we have once again evolved into a "Goldilocks economy" is that such an environment of slower growth is not conducive to supporting corporate profit growth at a level to justify high valuations. Such a backdrop becomes particularly problematic when the Federal Reserve begins to raise interest rates which removes one of the fundamental underpinnings of an overvalued market which was low interest rates. Ultimately, higher interest rates, particulalry in an economy with a deteriorating economic backdrop, becomes the pin that "pops the bubble."  It is true that the bears didn't eat Goldilocks at the end of the story...but then again, there never was a sequel either.

 
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Global Stocks Start Off December With A Bang, US Equity Futures Rebound; Yuan Drops





There was something for everyone in last night's much anticipated Chinese PMI data, with the official number sliding to the lowest in over 3 years, suggesting the PBOC will need to do more stimulus and is thus bullish, while the unoffocial Caixin print rising to the highest since June, suggesting whatever the PBOC is doing is working, and is also bullish. Not unexpectedly, global stocks decided to take the bullish way out, and have risen across the globe led by Asia, where stocks rose as much as 1.8%, Europe also green and US equity futures up 10 points as of this writing.

 
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Fourth Turning - Our Rendezvous With Destiny





"Eventually, all of America’s lesser problems will combine into one giant problem. The very survival of the society will feel at stake, as leaders lead and people follow. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers’ visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin."

 
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Market Panics After Arrest Of Brazilian Lawmaker: "Never Have We Had So Little Certainty About Tomorrow"





Last week's arrest of Latin America's most prominent investment banker sent shares of BTG Pactual plunging as investors pulled a third of their money from the firm's fixed income funds. As shocking as Andre Esteves' detention most assuredly was, analysts say the real risk may stem from the investigation into Rousseff's "guy" in the Senate, Delcidio Amaral, who was also detained last Wednesday. As Bloomberg reports, Amaral's "arrest not only delayed government efforts to resolve this year’s budget dispute, but it also dispelled a long-held belief that sitting lawmakers are all but untouchable because of a quirk in Brazilian law that affords politicians special treatment in criminal investigations." 

 
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To JPM, This Is The Alarming Chart Suggesting The Next Recession "Is Just Around The Corner"





"The US corporate financing gap – the difference between cash flow generation and spending on capex and dividends – has turned strongly negative. In the past, when the financing gap went strongly negative, the next downturn was just around the corner."

 
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Key Events In The Coming Very Busy Week





As noted earlier, after last week's snoozefest, this week starts off with a bang when the IMF announces in a few hours it will accept the Chinese Yuan in the pantheon of world reserve currencies alongside the USD, EUR, GBP and JPY the only question being what the alotted weighing of the currency will be. Things then progress to tomorrow's global PMI numbers, Yellen speeches on the economy to the Economic Club of Washington and Congress (Weds/Thurs), the eagerly anticipated ECB meeting on Thursday and finally Friday's OPEC meeting and US payroll print - the last before the FOMC in 2 weeks time.

 
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Fourth Turning - Politicians Driving The World Towards War





Americans today are blissfully distracted by their iGadgets, plotting out their holiday shopping strategies, leasing new cars, eating out, and buying advance tickets to the new Star Wars movie. They don’t see the wicked winter squalls ahead which will try their souls. We are experiencing the lull before the storms, but the storms are surely coming. The potential for catastrophe is high and burying our heads in the sand is not a strategy.

 
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Paris Is Prologue





The recent attacks in Paris evoke strong emotions for many people, but investors need to look through those feelings to the short, medium, and long-term implications. We believe Paris may mark an important turning point for Europe and the global business cycle... but for different reasons than you may think. There is a chance that the slow disintegration of Europe will drive more capital onto US shores, boosting valuations and fueling a blow-off top in the US equity market; but beware global shocks and take any rally as a chance to get defensive.

 
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China Plunges Most In Three Months, Pushing "Black Friday" Into The Red For Global Stocks





After several months of artificial, centrally-planned calm in Chinese markets, where "malicious sellers" found out the hard way the Politburo means business, overnight the relative quiet in Chinese stocks since August broke with a bang when the Shanghai Composite tumbled as much 6.1% before closing down 5.5%, the biggest drop in three months and the largest weekly loss since the depth of the Chinese rout in mid-August while a gauge of Chinese volatility surged from the lowest level since March.

 
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Bank Of America Forecasts No Recession Until 2027 (If Ever), Sees S&P At 3,500 In 10 Years





According to Bank of America there sill be no recession until 2027, if ever, and the S&P will hit 3500 by 2025. Just one thing we would like to know: does Bank of America anticipate another bailout of Bank of America during this upcoming golden age a la 2008, or is that also impossible to predict.

 
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