Unemployment

Treasuries Will Tell You All You Need To Know

Even with the S&P 500 hovering at all time highs and currencies moving all over the place, Bloomberg's Richard Breslow says the only asset class that is dispositive right now is bonds.

With The S&P 140 Points From Its 2018 Year End Target, Goldman Is Confused

Goldman found itself in the confusing position of being far more bearish than its clients, predicting that the S&P will rise less than 150 points over the next two and a half years and has to explain the reasons behind its bearishness, as well as the reason why it expects a sharp 5-10% drawdown in the S&P in the coming months.

With "Stock Valuations At Extremes" Goldman's Clients Are Asking Just One Question

This week the S&P 500 surged to a new record high of 2164 this week while the 10-year US Treasury yield touched an all-time low of 1.37%. As a result Goldman, and especially its clients, are stumped. As chief equity strategist David Kostin admits, they have one burning question. As Kostin puts it, they "are struggling to reconcile how extreme valuations of both assets can co-exist."

"All-Time-Highs"

"...central bankers seem to view elevated security valuations as “wealth.” The longer this fallacy persists, the worse the subsequent fallout will be. I have little doubt that future generations will look at the reckless arrogance of today’s central bankers no differently than we view speculators in the South Sea Bubble and the Dutch Tulip-mania. Unfortunately, there is no mechanism by which historically-informed pleas of “no, stop, don’t!” will penetrate their dogmatic conceit. Nor can we change the psychology of investors."

Labor Market Continues To Deteriorate: Job Openings Tumble, Fewest Hires Since 2014

It wasn't just job opening which disappointed in May: so did the far more important, in our opinion, number of hires. In May, the BLS reported that the number of total hires was only 5.036MM, the third month in a row of declines, and the lowest print since November 2014 as suddenly employers clamped down on new (seasonally-adjusted) hiring.

Here's How Much Europe Depends On The UK

As the following charts show, Europe can’t afford a break-up with Britain. The EU and Britain, therefore, are likely to reach a trade deal and maintain close economic and military ties despite the Brexit vote.

The Chart That Barack Obama Does Not Want Young, Black Males To See

Perhaps one of the more interesting data points from last week's Employment Report is displayed in the graph above, which shows that the jobless rate for black male teens (aged 16-19 years) increased to 40.1% in June from 28.1% in May. Except for a slightly higher increase of 12.2 percentage points during the aftermath of the Great Recession, the 12 percentage point increase in June was the highest monthly increase in history going back to 1972.

Millennials Pay Rent By Selling Their Parents' Jewelry

What is the youth of America, saddled with debt and with a lacking skill-set after graduation, to do when the rent comes due? Simple - Call Provident Loan Society of New York and pledge your family heirlooms for rent money.

Chasing Fools Gold (aka Central Banker Alchemy)

Remember the story of “The Philosopher’s stone?” In a nut shell it was an alchemical substance capable of turning worthless metals into gold. Today, much like those of yore, central bankers across the globe are engaging in that never-ending quest for the ability to turn the worthless – into the precious. And to the ill-informed it seems they have indeed achieved it. That is, as long as you wrap it in the same cloth as found in “The Emperor’s New Clothes.” For if not – the naked truth becomes appalling clear. And it ain’t pretty.

Fool's Errand: NATO Pledges Four More Years Of War In Afghanistan

The longest war in US history just got even longer. As NATO wrapped up its 2016 Warsaw Summit, the organization agreed to continue funding Afghan security forces through the year 2020. Of course, with all that funding comes US and NATO troops, and thousands of contractors, trainers, and more.