Unemployment

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"We Reduced Our Short In The Euro" - Did Goldman Just Hint Draghi May Do Nothing Next Week





So if Draghi pulls a "Draghi" on December 3, and stuns the market by admitting he merely jawboned the ECB's "assured" easing to death, with the EUR now pricing in both a 15 bps rate cut and more QE, and thus making any actual by the ECB meaningless (and why should the ECB actually launch a bazooka round when jawboning is enough) you have been warned.

 
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Presenting SocGen's 5 Black Swans For 2016





November has been a banner month for black swans. From Leftist political coups in Portugal to terror attacks in Paris to downed Russian fighter jets in Syria, the market is gradually learning to expect the unexpected. In its latest Quarterly Economic Outlook, SocGen outlines five political and economic black swans that could land in 2016.

 
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Case-Shiller Home Prices Rise At Fastest Pace In 6 Months (Despite NAR Reporting Falling Prices)





After 3 straight months of home price declines, August and now September have seen the usual seasonal pattern unfolding as Case-Shiller reports 0.61% rise in September (double the +0.3% expectations). Of course this runs in the face of NAR's 4 month decline in median home prices, but who's quibbling. Notably, 2015 is playing out almost exactly the same as 2014... winter is coming.

 
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It Might Be A "Services Economy" But Manufacturing Drives Recessions





While it is hoped that the economy can continue to expand on the back of the "service" sector alone, history suggests that "manufacturing" continues to play a much more important dynamic that it is given credit for.

 
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A Furious Ralph Nader Calls Out The Fed As "Tribune To Plutocratic, Crony Capitalism"; Janet Yellen Responds





In his letter, reproduced below, Nader bashes  the "tediously over-dramatic indecision as to when interest rates will be raised"; demands that the Fed not "lecture us about the Fed not being “political.” When you are the captives of the financial industry, led by the too-big-to-fail banks, you are generically “political" and - in short - wants to know when the Fed will put the interests of Main Street over those of "plutocratic, crony capitalism for which the Federal Reserve has long been a leading Tribune."

 
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"How Is This Possible" Deutsche Bank Asks, Looking At The Canary In The Junk Bond Mine





"The hardest questions we are trying to reconcile here are how is that possible to see all these signs of weakness under the surface being balanced by very strong equity markets and upbeat employment picture. One of these sides has to be wrong..."

 
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Frontrunning: November 23





  • Brussels on Edge as Lockdown Continues (WSJ)
  • Stocks Pare Decline as Crude Oil Erases Drop on Saudi Comments (BBG)
  • Italy’s Eni Plans to Pump Arctic Oil, After Others Abandon the Field (WSJ)
  • Treasuries Decline as Economists Say GDP to Be Revised Higher (BBG)
  • Why the Housing Rebound Hasn’t Lifted the U.S. Economy Much (WSJ)
  • Argentina Fever Is Back for Investors as Kirchner Rival Triumphs (BBG)
 
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Equities vs 'Everything Else' - Deutsche Bank Warns "One Of These Sides Has To Be Wrong"





The hardest questions we are trying to reconcile here are how is that possible to see all these signs of weakness under the surface – including weak commodities, tightening credit, retrenching consumer spending – being balanced by very strong equity markets and upbeat employment picture. One of these sides has to be wrong in its assessment of the current macro environment, and seeing both of them extending well into the future appears unlikely to us.

 
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Brazil's Disastrous Debt Dynamics Could "Create Contagion" For Emerging Markets, Barclays Warns





“Brazil is confronting a toxic combination of a primary budget deficit, high public debt (relative to EM countries), very high real interest rates (the Selic stands at 14.25%), sluggish trend growth, a negative commodity price shock and potential contingent liabilities for the sovereign, which together spell trouble for public debt dynamics.”

 
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Stagflation Ahead: Goldman Is "Unreservedly Disappointed" With Latin America





By now, everyone knows Brazil is stuck in a stagflationary nightmare that's made immeasurably worse by the country's seemingly intractable political crisis. But what about the rest of Latin America? Goldman takes a close look at the regional outlook for the next four years and finds a decidedly unfavorable growth-inflation mix. 

 
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Guest Post: Ending Blowback Terrorism





Painful as it is to admit, the West, especially the United States, bears significant responsibility for creating the conditions in which ISIS has flourished. The recent attacks should be understood as “blowback terrorism”: a dreadful unintended result of repeated US and European covert and overt military actions throughout the Middle East, North Africa, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia that aimed to overthrow governments and install regimes compliant with Western interests. These operations have not only destabilized the targeted regions, causing great suffering; they have also put populations in the US, the European Union, Russia, and the Middle East at significant risk of terror.

 
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"Economic" Advice To The President (Laissez-Faire Austrian Vs. Anti-Market Keynesian)





Dear Mr. President, your country faces a stagnating economy... The truth is it is too late for our politicians to act, because the speculative peak that precedes the crisis is already upon us.

 
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Transparency At The Fed - Why Is Janet Panicked About The House's FORM Act?





Janet Yellen’s astonishing letter to the Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, is a sign that the central bank is panicking over the fact that Congress is unhappy with the job it has been doing.

 
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Inflation, Unemployment Soar As Brazil Remains Trapped In Stagflationary Nightmare





Just a day after a dismal read on GDP, the latest data out of Brazil shows a spike in both inflation and unemployment, as the country's economic outlook continues to deteriorate at an alarming pace.

 
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The Fed Has Made A "Policy Mistake" And The Inevtiable Result Will Be A Recession, BNP Warns





"The reason for our recession concern is not so much because of what the Fed is about to do – likely embark on a slow hiking cycle beginning in December – but because it did not start the tightening much sooner."

 
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