United Kingdom

One Month Later - Brexit Post-Mortem

One month on from the referendum, there is no sign of the Treasury’s $4300-loss VAR model predictions coming to fruition. London is teeming with people, many of them foreign visitors, spending money in cafes, restaurants, theatres and other visitor attractions. The country roads are still jammed with caravans, tractors, tourists and white vans trying in all their productive mayhem to go about their business. Wimpish businessmen dithering over trade and investment plans are being forced to get on with life... and our long-abandoned trade friends in the Commonwealth are keen to talk to us, as is China. And who can forget President Obama’s threat when it came to negotiating T-TIP with the EU? Well, we are no longer at the back of the queue, but at the front of the line.

"An Extraordinary Development": Record Swiss Gold Flow Into The United States

There was a huge trend change in U.S. gold investment in May.  Something quite extraordinary took place which hasn’t happened for several decades.  While Switzerland has been a major source of U.S. gold exports for many years, the tables turned in May as the Swiss exported a record amount of gold to the United States.

Stephen Roach Says Trump's Right On Globalization: It's A Broken System

"While seemingly elegant in theory, globalization suffers in practice. That is the lesson of Brexit and of the rise of Donald Trump in the United States. And it also underpins the increasingly virulent anti-China backlash now sweeping the world. Those who worship at the altar of free trade, including me, must come to grips with this glaring disconnect."

Frontrunning: July 25

  • Democrats in disarray on eve of convention to nominate Clinton (Reuters); After Gloating, Democrats Face Unity Problem of Their Own (BBG)
  • Florida nightclub shooting leaves two dead, up to 16 wounded (Reuters)
  • Yellen Still Waiting for Overwhelming Evidence to Warrant Hike (BBG)
  • Oil Trades Near Two-Month Low as Drilling Increases Amid Surplus (BBG)
  • Fraud Investigation Ricochets Through Hedge Fund Known for Ties to Jewish Community (WSJ)

Beyond 28 Pages: The US - Saudi Relationship Starts To Fray

Answers about Saudi Arabia’s involvement in 9/11 may prove elusive and forever unknown. But more than ever, questions are being raised and subsequent actions are being taken in relation to Saudi Arabia, extending far beyond what’s contained in the 28 pages of fourteen years ago and portending a new realignment of the US and other western countries’ long-standing relationship with this Middle East power.

Which Countries Have The Most Immigrants?

Immigration is now at the center of American and British politics. Trump and Farage see immigration as an existential threat. But do the United Kingdom and the United States have especially large foreign-born populations? Is the number of foreign-born residents in those countries rising at rates faster than in other countries? And how is the composition of the foreign-born population changing?

Herbalife: Media Materially Misstates FTC Outcome, Icahn Files Potentially Questionable Statement with SEC

In the classic "pyramid" scheme, participants attempt to make money solely by recruiting new participants into the program. The hallmark of these schemes is the promise of sky-high returns in a short period of time for doing nothing other than handing over your money and getting others to do the same. But, like most news that goes out incorrectly, nobody noticed the retraction and nobody cared. Here’s what Dow Jones’ official retraction of the morning’s news looked like when it was issued later in the morning, with Herbalife stock already trading up nearly 15%

Russell Napier Reveals The "Only Question That Matters For Global Investors"

Only one question matters for global investors - Where is the helicopter? Helicopter money will be raining from the skies in Japan, the Eurozone, the UK and even in the USA. This form of reflation will likely work and in due course work too much. Few things are binary in investment, but this huge decision to be taken in Berlin is the biggest binary event for investors this analyst has yet come across.

The Great Market Tide Has Now Shifted

Risk-on assets (stocks) rising at the same time as safe-haven assets is akin to dogs marrying cats and living happily ever after. What the heck is going on? Why is the market acting so schizophrenic? What’s changed?

Sovereign Credit Is Deteriorating At A Record Pace

Culminating with the tipping of the UK's numerous real estate fund "dominoes" and the subsequent fallout in the wake Brexit, Fitch has been on a ratings-slashing spree, having cut the credit ratings on 14 nations so far in 2016, most recently that of the United Kingdom - a record downgrade pace for the rating agency.