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Succinctly summarizing the positive and negative news, data, and market events of the week...

And you thought this would stay in Ireland and Cyprus right? Keep hope alive. RBS bailout per UK taxpayer = £1,414 or €1,654 or $2,177. but they didn't tell you everything, did they?

In a wide-ranging interview with Casey Research editor Louis James, Doug Casey discusses why it's imperative to start diversifying one's assets today, and provides some guidance in considering countries to diversify into... "I'm sure they'll get 'round to closing all the loopholes. So, the time to act is now. We'll keep monitoring the situation, but when this happens, the Powers that Be won't want anyone to see it coming, so it will zing in from left field. Your only chance to protect your wealth is to start diversifying its exposure to any one particular predatory state as soon as possible."

The troubles in Cyprus have set off a new examination of the health of the eurozone, with a particular focus on which country might be next in line for a bailout and the extent to which shareholders and depositors will take losses when banks fail (bail-ins). As UK think-tank, OpenEurope notes, much of the attention has settled on two countries. Portugal, which has been propelled back into the headlines, with the country’s constitutional court recently ruling against some of the government’s EU-mandated budget cuts. Secondly, Slovenia, which is facing a massive banking crisis, in turn providing another potential testing ground for the eurozone’s vaguely defined ‘bail-in’ plans. OpenEurope provides a quick run-down of the key points to watch in each country.

As SF Fed's John Williams notes (here), cash is king, but the strange thing is that while credit/debit transactions rise exponentially, the cash in circulation is also rising at a rapid pace. So where does all the cash go? The short answer is into large-denomination bills and out of the country by his findings. While low denomination bills suffer (as we discussed here) it is worth asking who is 'hoarding' the $100 bills? This is the question that BofAML asks in Europe as the huge EUR500 Bill (the developed world's highest value note in circulation) remains in great demand (apparanelty by shady offshore types). This is not good news for the central banks of the world as they run dry of monetary policy tools to drive velocity in money (or spending). BofAML's proposal: Ban the EUR500 Bill; force those shady people who 'stack' these high denomination bills to spend that money into circulation. This would appear to be the latest 'capital control' strawman, 'floated' to eliminate the people's right to keep cash segregated from a banking system and out of broad electronic circulation. So in both the US and Europe, high denomination bills are being hoarded (or exported to 'safe' havens) as Williams notes, "around the world, during periods of political unrest or war, cash - especially the currency of a stable country... - is seen as a safe asset that can be spirited out of harm’s way with relative ease." This, of course, is not what the elites want - and we suspect a "ban the EUR500 Bill" legislation will be coming soon to the EU Commission.

We started off the overnight session with various pseudo-pundits doing the count-up to a 100 in the USDJPY. It was only logical then that moments before the 4 year old threshold was breached, the Yen resumed strengthening following comments from various Japanese politicians who made it appear that the recent weakening in the currency may suffice for now. This culminated moments ago when Koichi Hamada, a former Yale professor and adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, told Reuters that level of 100 yen to dollar is suitable level from the perspective of competitiveness. The result has been a nearly 100 pip move lower in the USDJPY which puts into question the sustainability of the recent equity rally now that the primary carry funding pair has resumed its downward trajectory. Another result is that the rally in the Nikkei225 was finally halted, closing trading unchanged, and bringing cumulative gains since the morning before the BoJ’s announcement last Thursday to 8.9%. Over that the same time period, the TOPIX Real Estate Index is up an incredible 24%, no doubt reflecting the prospect of renewed buying of REIT stocks from the BoJ’s asset purchasing program.

Slew of headlines out of the UK reporting that after suffering a stroke, the Iron Lady and former Prime Minister of the UK, Margaret Thatcher, has died. Rest in Peace.

The week ahead is light on major market moving data releases. From a policy perspective and in light of the recent moves in treasuries, FOMC minutes are likely to be followed by markets. Retail sales in the US are likely to print below consensus both on the headline and on the core metrics. That said, this needs to be seen against the backdrop of first quarter retail consumer spending data surprising to the upside. Producer prices are also likely to come in on the soft side of market expectations. Finally, do not expect large surprises from the U of Michigan consumer confidence.

• Finally the MSM catches up to reality: Workers Stuck in Disability Stunt Economic Recovery (WSJ)
• China opens Aussie dollar direct trading (FT)
• National Bank and Eurobank Fall as Merger Halted (BBG)
• Why Making Europe German Won’t Fix the Crisis - The Bulgarian case study (BBG)
• Nikkei hits new highs as yen slides (FT)
• Housing Prices Are on a Tear, Thanks to the Fed (WSJ)
• Why is Moody's exempt from justice, or the "Big Question in U.S. vs. S&P" (WSJ)
• Central banks move into riskier assets (FT)
• N. Korea May Conduct Joint Missile-Nuclear Tests, South Says (BBG)
• North Korea Pulls Workers From Factories It Runs With South (NYT)
• Illinois pension fix faces political, legal hurdles (Reuters)
• IPO Bankers Become Frogs in Hot Water Amid China Market Halt (BBG)
• Portugal Seeks New Cuts to Stay on Course (WSJ)

With every modestly positive datapoint being desperately clung to, now that even Goldman's Hatzius has once more thrown in the economic towel after proclaiming an economic renaissance in late 2012 just like he did in late 2010 only to issue a mea culpa a few months later (and just as we predicted - post coming up shortly), the key prerogative is to ignore the elephant in the room. That, of course, is that the JPY 1 quadrillion bond market had to be halted for the second day in a row as the Japanese capital markets are fast becoming a very big and sad joke. The resulting flight to safety from Japanese investors, who sense that their own bond market is on the verge of breaking down completely, has managed to send French and Belgian bonds to record lows, the Spanish 2 Year to sub 2%, the German 6 month bill negative in the primary market, the US 10/30 year constantly bid and so on. The immediate result is that the bond-equity disconnect continues to diverge until one day we may get negative 10 Year rates coupled with an all time high stock market. Gotta love the fake New Normal market, in which the Japanese penny stock market was up another 2.8% to well over 13,000 even as the Shanghai Composite plumbs ever redder territory for 2013 on fears the birdflu contagion will hurt the already struggling economy even more.

A big picture look at the drivers of the global capital markets.

Société Générale (“SocGen”) recently published a special report entitled “The end of the gold era” that garnered far more attention than we think it deserved.  The majority of the report focused on SocGen’s “crash scenario” for gold wherein they suggest that gold could fall well below their 2013 target of US$1,375/oz. It also included a classic criticism that we’ve heard so many times before: that the gold price is in “bubble territory”. We have problems with both suggestions.

The CEO of Unicredit Federico Ghizzoni said yesterday that uninsured deposits could be used In future bank failures. He said that the savings which are not guaranteed by any protection or insurance could be used in the future to contribute to the rescue of banks who fail and that uninsured deposits could be used in future bank failures provided global policy makers agree on a common approach.

The world's macro data is pointing a significant slowdown, and yet - as we noted here - stocks remain sanguine; buoyed by the promises of central planners everywhere that no harm will come to them. Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid, like us, is a little skeptical that this chasm of un-reality can remain for long. His perspective is from the correlation of PMIs and YoY changes in equities (based on data back to the 1990s). The current implied results for the US, UK, and the big 4 in Europe is more than a little worrying - with the French in most trouble.

“If there is a risk in a bank, our first question should be: ‘Ok, what are you the bank going to do about that? What can you do to recapitalise yourself?’ If the bank can’t do it, then we’ll talk to the shareholders and the bondholders. We’ll ask them to contribute in recapitalising the bank. And if necessary the uninsured deposit holders: ‘What can you do in order to save your own banks?’” – Jeroen Dijsselbloem, March 26, 2013 ¹