Ever wondered what life would be like if a country actually disappeared off the face of the planet or at least transformed into something else?
June is off with a bang, and a very busy week in the macro economic calendar, both globally and in the US, which culminates with the latest "most important ever" payrolls report, one which will surely be closely watched by a Fed which may hike as soon as a few weeks from now (but probably won't).
Earlier today the Austrian Central Bank confirmed the Kronen-Zeitung report, and said that by the year 2020, it would hold 50%, or 140 tons, of its gold domestically, up from 17% currently. This means that Austria will withdraw some 140 tons of gold from the BOE which holds 80% of Austria's gold currently and send 92.4 tons back home to Vienna with another 47.6 tons being sent to Switzerland. Which is also the biggest news: Austria is explicitly demonstrating a lack of confidence in the "pro-western" system of which the Bank of England is a critical cog, and instead opting for "neutral" Switzerland, which will hold nearly 50 tons of the gold formerly located at the Bank of England.
- U.S. vows to continue patrols after China warns spy plane (Reuters)
- Bank of Japan Chief Cheers On Tokyo’s Surging Stocks (WSJ)
- Merkel Stamps Out Optimism on Greece After Tsipras Talks (BBG)
- Greece sees reforms deal with lenders in next 10 days (Reuters)
- Why Greece’s Syriza party is not sticking to the script on an IMF deal (Channel4)
- Why Does Putin Care Who Runs a Tiny Balkan Nation? Gas Pipelines (BBG)
- U.S. Stock-Index Futures Are Little Changed Before Yellen Speech (BBG)
- German Business Confidence Declines as Risks Cloud Outlook (BBG)
- Once-Unthinkable Criminal Pleas by U.S. Banks Get Investor ‘Meh’ (BBG)
- The E-Mail That Helped Catch Barclays: ‘ISDAfix Is Manipulated’ (BBG)
- CFTC Said Preparing ISDAfix Probe Talks in Weeks: Credit Markets (BBG)
- Islamic State takes control of Syria's Palmyra in westward advance (Reuters)
- Tensions High as Greece Gets Smallest Aid Rise Yet (BBG)
- The Rise of the $50,000 Rental (BBG)
- U.S. says South China Sea reclamations stoke instability (Reuters)
- First Hanergy Now Goldin: Hong Kong Stocks Drop Like Stones (BBG)
- Clinton aides sometimes blocked release of documents requested under public-records law (WSJ)
- House Benghazi panel subpoenas former Clinton White House aide (Reuters)
- Cash Crunch, for Many, Is a Monthly Woe (WSJ)
- Doubts over Greece add to euro's ECB-driven frailty (Reuters)
- For Many American States, It's Like the Recession Never Ended (BBG)
- Japan debt plan needs BOJ to keep rates low for years (Reuters)
- Euro Continues to Fall; European Bonds, Stocks Broadly Steady (WSJ)
- Los Angeles gives preliminary approval to $15 minimum wage (Reuters)
As the economic calendar slowly picks up following the NFP lull, we are looking at a busy week both globally and in the US, where an army of Fed speakers culminates with a Yellen speech on Friday at 1pm in Rhode Island.
Having been 'snubbed' by the new Saudi King Salman, it appears the uneasy relationshipo with our 'allies' in The Gulf is ebbing. In what the State Department will, we are sure, just brush off, Politico reports that the king of Bahrain has apparently also snubbed President Barack Obama, preferring instead to attend a horse show with Queen Elizabeth.
- Amtrak train in Philadelphia wreck was traveling at twice speed limit (Reuters)
- The engineer has no recollection of the crash and “no explanation” for what happened (WSJ)
- Taliban claim attack on Afghan guesthouse that killed 14 (Reuters)
- Chicago’s Junk Rating From Moody’s Puzzles Investors (BBG)
- House votes to end spy agencies' bulk collection of phone data (Reuters)
- Wesley Clark: The Penny-Stock General (BBG)
- AOL’s Armstrong to Leave $213 Million Richer After Verizon Deal (BBG)
Today’s Eurogroup meeting will be key in determining where Greece and its creditors negotiations currently stand. Over in the US today, it’s the usual post payrolls lull with just the labor market conditions data expected.
How this will not end badly and ugly is hard to see. As we quoted in an earlier article, the number of foodbanks in Britain went from 66 to 421 in the first 5 years of Cameron rule. How many more need to be added before people start setting cities on fire? Or even just: how much more needs to happen before the Scots have had enough? Very much like the Greeks, the Scots unambiguously voted down austerity. And in very much the same fashion, they face an entity that claims to be more powerful and insists on forcing more austerity down their throats anyway. It seems inevitable that at some point these larger entities will start to crack and break down into smaller pieces. As empires always do. Now, the EU was of course never an empire, there’s just tons of bureaucrats dreaming of that, and Britain is a long-decayed empire.
The politicians like the bankers and the central bankers, are happy to kick the can down the road and let their successors and future generations pick up the tab and pay for the economic mess that they refuse to address.
The British are ready to hang themselves yet again, with their General Election on Thursday 7th May 2015.
Quickly looking at the potential market moving events this week, US payrolls on Friday will be the clear focus. In terms of expectations, our US colleagues are expecting a +225k print which matches the current Bloomberg consensus, while they expect the unemployment rate to drop one-tenth to 5.4%. Elsewhere, Thursday’s UK Election will be closely followed while Greece will once again be front and center.
- The Fed Still Wants Easy Money (BBG) - you don't say
- ECB Is Studying Curbs on Greek Bank Support (BBG)
- Banks Paid to Borrow as Three-Month Euribor Drops Below Zero (BBG)
- Baoding Tianwei is first state-owned Chinese enterprise to default (Reuters)
- Major Chinese Developer Says It Can’t Pay Dollar Debts (BBG)
- Wall Street Has No Idea How Much Money Venezuela Has (BBG)
- Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Find Different Paths to Profits (WSJ)
- Does the Collapse of a Chinese Developer Signal the Start of More Defaults? (BBG)
- Retail Traders Wield Social Media for Investing Fame (WSJ)