University of California

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Hoisington: 30Y Treasury Bonds Are Undervalued





With U.S. rates higher than those of major foreign markets, investors are provided with an additional reason to look favorably on increased investments in the long end of the U.S. treasury market. Additionally, with nominal growth slowing in response to low saving and higher debt we expect that over the next several years U.S. thirty-year bond yields could decline into the range of 1.7% to 2.3%, which is where the thirty-year yields in the Japanese and German economies, respectively, currently stand.

 
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What's Lurking Beneath The Glossy Veneer Of The Jobs Report?





The jobs report has little value if we don't peer beneath the glossy veneer.

 
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Was The Department Of Defense Behind Facebook’s Controversial Manipulation Study?





You have probably heard about the extremely controversial Facebook “emotional contagion” study in which the company intentionally altered its news feed algorithm to see if it could manipulate its users’ emotions; but here is where it starts to get really strange. Initially, the press release from Cornell highlighting the study said at the bottom: “The study was funded in part by the James S. McDonnell Foundation and the Army Research Office.” Once people started asking questions about this, Cornell claimed it had made a mistake, and that there was no outside funding. Jay Rosen, Journalism Professor at NYU, seems to find this highly questionable.. and it gets even more interesting from there.

 
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Coming To A Protest Near You... A Drone That Blasts Pepper Spray





What’s a crony status quo to do when it is ultimately confronted with an unruly mob of plebs frustrated with the fact median wages haven’t increased in forty five years, while the 0.01% has stolen everything in sight with the help of the Federal Reserve and corrupt Washington D.C. politicians? Well, naturally you’d launch the South African made Skunk Riot Control Copter, fully equipped with a suite of high-definition and thermal imagine cameras, strobe lights, speakers and a pepper spray firing paint ball gun which can fire 80 shots per second!

 
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Obama Urges Bailed-Out Students Recant Their "Climate-Change Skepticism"





While handing out tax-paying citizens' cash to less tax-paying (but still voting) citizens in his latest bailout (of the student loan bubble) may seem to some just big-hearted, the quid pro quo appears to have just been unleashed. In a commencement address yesterday to graduates of UC Irvine, Bloomberg reports that Obama delivered one of his feistiest critiques of lawmakers; calling on Americans coming of age to demand that politicians respond more aggressively to climate change, comparing those skeptical about man-caused alterations to the environment to a belief that the moon is “made of cheese.”

 
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Top 10 Universities With The Richest Alumni





As student loan bailouts rain down from Washington, we thought it may be useful to consider where the world's wealthiest University alumni are. As Private Wealth reports, following a survey of 70,000 millionaires around the world, eight of the top ten universities with the highest number of rich alumni are based in the U.S., with the U.K. home to the other two. Engineering degrees produced the most millionaires, although most engineering grads made money as entrepreneurs, the study revealed. MBAs, law, accounting, and finance degrees also led to financial success.

 
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The Unfaithful Departed: Meet The People Who Bailed On The Obama Administration





Friday's latest resignation of yet another former Obama administration faithful - that of White House press secretary Jay Carney - got us thinking: how many people have jumped off the USS Obamic? The answer is, in short, a lot. Below is a list (by no means complete) of the most prominent officials and advisors who have quietly exited the Obama administration stage left over the past 6 years.

 
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The Richest Rich Have Never Been Richer Than The Rest Of Us





"The message for strivers is that if you want to be very, very rich, start out very rich," is the wondrous conclusion Bloomberg BusinessWeek's Peter Coy has from delving into the details of the latest data on income growth in America. The richest 0.1 percent of the American population has rebuilt its share of wealth back to where it was in the Roaring Twenties. And the richest 0.01 percent’s share has grown even more rapidly, quadrupling since the eve of the Reagan Revolution.

 
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Reverse Mortgages Spike 20% In 2013 As Baby Boomers Scramble For Cash





While we have covered the various ways in which Americans are scraping by in the current feudal economy, from food stamps and disability fraud, to student loans and living in mom and pop’s basement, this reverse mortgage thing is a piece of the puzzle we have been missing. These mortgages are not insignificant either. According to Inside Mortgage Finance, originations were up 20% in 2013, hitting $15.3 billion. So when you see that older guy working the cashier at Wal-Mart and wonder to yourself how he is surviving, the answer may increasingly be a reverse mortgage. Oh, and since the FHA is originating many of these loans, you the taxpayer will be on the hook!

 
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“Do You Think That Because I’m CHAIRMAN of The Intelligence Committee That I Just Say “I Want It”, and They Give It To Me? ...





... They Control It. All Of It. ALL of It. ALL THE TIME. I Only Get – and My Committee Only Gets – What They WANT To Give Me.”

 
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Frontrunning: March 7





  • Putin rebuffs Obama as Ukraine crisis escalates (Reuters)
  • Behind the $100 Billion Commodity Empire That Few Know (BBG)
  • Initial Public Offerings Hit Pace Not Seen in Years (WSJ)
  • Russian Parliament Will Back Crimea Split From Ukraine (WSJ)
  • Nakamoto Named as Bitcoin Father Denies Involvement, Flees Press (BBG)
  • Chaori Can’t Make Payment in China’s First Onshore Default (BBG)
  • Zombies Spreading Shows Chaori Default Just Start (BBG)
  • Pimco's Gross declares El-Erian is 'trying to undermine me' (Reuters)
  • U.S. Fighters Circle Baltics as Putin Fans Fear of Russia (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Tyranny Of Models (Or Don't Fear The Reaper)





The tyranny of models is rampant in almost every aspect of our investment lives, from every central bank in the world to every giant asset manager in the world to the largest hedge funds in the world. There are very good reasons why we live in a model-driven world, and there are very good reasons why model-driven institutions tend to dominate their non-modeling competitors. The use of models is wonderfully comforting to the human animal because it’s what we do in our own minds and our own groups and tribes all the time. We can’t help ourselves from applying simplifying models in our lives because we are evolved and trained to do just that. But models are most useful in normal times, where the inherent informational trade-off between modeling power and modeling comprehensiveness isn’t a big concern and where historical patterns don’t break. Unfortunately we are living in decidedly abnormal times, a time where simplifications can blind us to structural change and where models create a risk that cannot be resolved by more or better modeling! It’s not a matter of using a different model or improving the model that we have. It’s the risk that ALL economic models pose when a bedrock assumption about politics or society shifts.

 
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142 Cities In Brazil Are Now Rationing Water As Drought Goes Critical





Did you know that the drought in Brazil is so bad that some neighborhoods are only being allowed to get water once every three days?  At this point, 142 Brazilian cities are rationing water and there does not appear to be much hope that this crippling drought is going to end any time soon.  Unfortunately, most Americans seem to be absolutely clueless about all of this. And this horrendous drought in Brazil could potentially have a huge impact on the total global food supply.  As a recent RT article detailed, Brazil is the leading exporter in the world in a number of very important food categories…

 
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200 Years Of Scorchitude: Professor Warns California To Brace For A "Mega-Drought"





Two years into California's drought and locals are repeating (mantra-like) "we've never seen anything like it." They are right, of course, since this is the worst period of rainlessness since records began... but if Cal Berkeley professor Lynn Ingram is correct, they ain't seen nothing yet. The paleoclimatologist fears, if very long-run history repeats, California should brace itself for a mega drought, as National Geographic reports, a drought that could last for 200 years or more... since the 20th century was a 'wet anomaly'.

 
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