University Of Michigan

Consumer Confidence 'Steady' Despite Weak Wages, No Spending, Slow Growth

Apart from stagnant wage growth, dismal economic growth, and tumbling spending growth, Americans remain 'confident' according to University of Michigan. Current conditions fell very modestly but 'hope' rose to its highest since January. Inflation expectations were steady (near record lows) but buying climates improved MoM.

Global Stocks Pause Ahead Of GDP Report; Nasdaq Hits Fresh Record High

Despite yesterday's whopping beats by Amazon and Google which sent the Nasdaq to new record highs after hours, this morning futures S&P futures are little changed ahead of the closely watched Q1 GDP report, European stocks and Asian equities are slightly lower, oil is higher after Russia said it had reached the 300kbpd oil cut per the OPEC pact, and the dollar was modestly in the red.

Euphoria Returns: European Stocks Soar, Dax Hits Record; S&P Futs Surge In "French Relief Rally"

Risk is definitely on this morning as European shares soar, led by French stocks a new record high in Germany's Dax, and S&P futures up 1.2% after a "French relief rally" in which the first round of the country’s presidential elections prompted investors to bet that establishment candidate Emmanuel Macron will win a runoff vote next month. Asian stocks also surged, expect for China, which suffered its biggest drop of the year, down 1.4%, ending the streak of losses no greater than 1% going back to December.

Goldman Asks: Are Markets Rationally, Or Irrationally, Exuberant?

The distinction between rational and irrational sentiment matters. If improvements in sentiment “rationally” reflect recent macro data or “news” about future developments, they likely foreshadow stronger growth. But to the extent that sentiments are “irrational,” they leave the economy more vulnerable to cycles of overheating and correction.

"Hell To Pay"

"No doubt, there’s hell to pay for 100 years of ever escalating financial insanity.  Take it in stride.  The downside is here and it’s not going away any time soon."

Pulling Levers To Steer The Machine

Self-respecting witch doctors and fortune tellers look at Ms. Yellen with contempt. She can make the economy worse. She can’t make it better.

The Illusion Of Liquidity

As my mom used to say: “It’s all fun and games until someone gets their eye put out.”

S&P Futures Slide Ahead Of Bank Earnings

S&P futures extended their Wednesday decline, dropping in the overnight session with banking shares in focus ahead of results from JPMorgan and Citigroup. European stocks likewise retreated along with the dollar, while Asian shares were mixed.

The End Of Ultra-Easy Money?

Is this the end of stimulative monetary policy? Only until the Fed and the academicians realize their Goldilocks economy is sham and they have to double down to prevent another recession. Because stimulus is all they know how to do. And they reject completely the benefits of a healthy, healing, old-fashioned depression.

Key Events In The Holiday-Shortened Week

In this holiday-shortened week (markets closed for Good Friday), focus turns to several inflation prints in G10 in the week ahead, with US and UK inflation data likely to get the most attention. In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials, including a speech by Fed Chair Yellen on Monday.

Futures Flat Ahead Of Yellen As Geopolitical Risks Loom; Fear Barometer Spikes

S&P futures point to a slightly lower open, while Asian and European stocks are likewise modestly in the red. Trading volumes are muted for most markets on Monday with investors spooked by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Korean peninsula. It is also a holiday-shortened week in much of the West.