University Of Michigan

Futures Rise On Friday 13th Ahead Of Deluge Of Bank Earnings; Dollar Continues To Decline

European shares rose as Fiat rebounded on hopes concerns about parallel to Volkswagen are overblown, Asian stocks were little as Chinese shares fell to the lowest level of 2017 after poor export data, and U.S. equity-index futures rose ahead of a deluge of bank earnings. The dollar is headed for a weekly loss and gold trades at the highest price in almost two months.

Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On Trump

The main economic release this week is US retail sales, ECB minutes and a series of Chinese economic releases. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including a webcast address by Chair Yellen on Thursday. However, the highlight of the upcoming first full week of 2017 might well be President-elect Trump's first news conference on Wednesday since his election win.

Party Like The Dow Is 19,999: US Futures Dip As Global Currencies Stumble; Oil Down, Gold Up

European, Asian stocks fall and U.S. equity-index futures traded mixed on Monday with fresh memories of the Dow Jones rising to under 1 point of 20,000 on Friday. The dollar has rebounded on fresh geopolitical concerns, while the pound extends its decline from Friday and has slide to 10 week lows on a Sunday interview from Theresa May which suggested a "Hard Brexit" may be in the cards.

3 Things: Records Are Records For A Reason

First, 'record levels' of anything are records for a reason. It is the point at which previous limits were reached. Therefore, when a ‘record level’ is reached, it is NOT THE BEGINNING, but rather an indication of the MATURITY of a cycle. While the media has focused on employment, record stock market levels, etc. as a sign of an ongoing economic recovery, history suggests caution.  The charts below suggest that current levels should be a sign of caution rather than exuberance.

US Selloff Spooks Thinly Traded Global Markets Sending Stocks, Yields, Dollar Lower

One day after the biggest drop in US stocks in two months, global stocks struggled as they tried to close out 2016 on a positive note. The dollar dropped the most in two weeks, sliding alongside bond yields, while oil retreated from its highest close in 17 months. European stocks slid from a 2016 peak on renewed concerns about Italian banks.

Will Investors Get 'Hustled' By The Pros In 2017?

If you think you’re hearing a wee bit of a mixed message emanating from households and businesses, you’re not losing your marbles. If the stars don’t align perfectly, if the sequel doesn’t best the original, smaller investors might want to wise up to the fact that they’re being hustled by the equivalent of professional gamblers.

Key Events In The Coming Pre-Holiday Week

The key economic releases this week are durable goods and GDP on Thursday. Chair Yellen’s speech on the labor market on Monday afternoon is also likely to garner considerable attention.