Value Investing

Animal Spirits Are A Late-Stage Event

“While the temptations are great, and the pressures strong, illusions in numbers are only that - ephemeral, and ultimately self-destructive.

Jeff Ubben Steps Down As ValueAct Investment Head

Jeff Ubben, the activist investor who built the iconic ValueAct hedge fund into a $16bn powerhouse, is stepping down from daily oversight of its portfolio and handing the reins to his protégé, Mason Morfit, the FT reports.

 

Weekend Reading: Trump's Rocket Ride

"If I'd only followed CNBC’s advice, I’d have a million dollars today. Provided I’d started with a hundred million dollars."

Seth Klarman Warns Trump's "Erratic, Overconfidence" Could End Dollar Hegemony

The big picture for investors is this: Trump is high volatility, and investors generally abhor volatility and shun uncertainty... If things go wrong, we could find ourselves at the beginning of a lengthy decline in dollar hegemony, a rapid rise in interest rates and inflation, and global angst...”

The Market Wizard's Wizard - An Interview With Jack Schwager

"...someone with a great risk-adjusted return might have employed a strategy of selling way out-of-the money puts on equities since late 2008. That strategy would have produced great return/risk performance, almost like a money machine, but the trouble is that type of strategy also embeds a large tail risk. So even though the track record of this strategy would show low volatility, there would be the risk of catastrophic losses... Ironically, many strategies with low volatility are the most susceptible to event risk.

A Time For Caution

"We have argued the current monetary regime is in its evanescence, and that the Fed is trying to raise rates to attract global wealth to dollars and dollar-denominated assets as global leverage, demand and output growth declines. If we are right, then we should not expect other economies to sit by idly... which keep us cautious on equities, bullish on Treasuries and gold, and negative on credit:"