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Key Events And Earnings In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week include consumer confidence on Tuesday, the durable goods report on Wednesday, and the advance release of 2nd quarter GDP on Friday. The July FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2PM. There are several scheduled speeches from Fed officials this week. 197 S&P 500 companies are due to report (or 38% of the index market cap) with the notable names including Apple, Verizon, Facebook, Coca-Cola, Alphabet, Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Frontrunning: July 25

  • Democrats in disarray on eve of convention to nominate Clinton (Reuters); After Gloating, Democrats Face Unity Problem of Their Own (BBG)
  • Florida nightclub shooting leaves two dead, up to 16 wounded (Reuters)
  • Yellen Still Waiting for Overwhelming Evidence to Warrant Hike (BBG)
  • Oil Trades Near Two-Month Low as Drilling Increases Amid Surplus (BBG)
  • Fraud Investigation Ricochets Through Hedge Fund Known for Ties to Jewish Community (WSJ)

It's Official: Verizon To Acquire Yahoo Core Assets For $4.8 Billion

Almost a decade after Microsoft made an unsolicited bid to acquire Yahoo for $50 billion, moments ago Verizon confirmed recent rumors that it would acquire Yahoo operating business for approximately $4.83 billion in cash, far below initial estimates floated several months ago that the segment could sell for as much as $10 billion. So how much does Marissa Meyer collect for "creating value" at the company during her 5 year tenure? Somewhere around $300 million.

US Futures Unchanged As Europe Stocks Rise; Strong Dollar Pressures Oil

There has been little notable market moves overnight, with the record rally in the S&P500 set to continue and European stocks climbing as German IFO business confidence proved more resilient than economists predicted in the month after Britain voted to leave the European Union, falling less than expected from 108.7 to 108.3, above the 107.5 consensus, with expectations printing at 102.2 above the 101.2 expected. Bonds fell with gold as the dollar gained before central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week.

Verizon Set To Buy Yahoo For $5 Billion

It appears that after years of attempts to quietly, then not so quietly sell itself, the increasingly troubled former internet portal giant may have finally found the "greatest fool" thanks to Verizon. According to Bloomberg, Verizon is the lead bidder for Yahoo with a total consideration of about $5 billion, and an announcement may come in the next few days.

Stockman Warns Of "Awful Price To Be Paid For One-Way Markets"

The boys and girls on Wall Street are now riding their bikes with no hands and eyes wide shut. That’s the only way to explain Friday’s lunatic buying spree in response to another jobs report that proves exactly nothing about an allegedly resurgent economy.

Goldman Now Sees A Two-Thirds Chance Of A Rate Hike In 2016

US employment growth rebounded sharply in June, according to Goldman's Jan Hatzius, and as a result, the bank confirms their expectation of about a two-thirds chance that the FOMC will raise rates this year, most likely in December... notably different from market expectations.

Your Last Minute Payrolls Preview

  • US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (June) M/M Exp. 180K (Low 50K, High 243K, Prey. 38K, April. 160K)
  • US Unemployment Rate (June) M/M Exp. 4.8% (Low 4.7%, High 4.9%), Prey. 4.7%, April. 5.0%
  • US Average Hourly Earnings (June) M/M Exp. 0.2% (Low 0.1%, High 0.3%), Prey. 0.2%, April. 0.3%

US Futures Rebound After Volatile Session, All Eyes On June Payrolls

In a session where bleary-eyed traders followed the all-night tragic developments out of Dallas and initially sold off risk assets, it is good to see that some normalcy prevailed with the traditional post Europe-open futures ramp, which was further assisted by the successful resolution of the Dallas standoff, which has pushed futures modestly higher ahead of today's main event for markets, the June payrolls report due in under two hours.

"This Is The Capitulation Phase" - Why Treasury Yields Are About To Really Plunge

For the rates market, the significance of this acceptance phase by pensions cannot be understated, in our opinion. A $3 trillion industry running a $500 billion funding gap and a significant duration gap waking up to reality is likely to have major implications for the market. In the extreme case, entire pensions could be offloaded from corporate balance sheets to insurance companies (increasingly like the UK, Exhibit 1)–generating significant demand for long-end duration during such transactions.

Fake Jobs Plague The U.S. Economy

The long-term decline in median income, amplified in 2016 by the biggest drop in weekly earnings in history, puts the lie to the pretense of self-sustaining recovery. Average people don’t have enough discretionary income to sustain expanded economic activity.

Here Is Why Barclays Sees An Elevated Risk Of Recession Within 12 Months

Even when the energy sector gets excluded from Barclays forward-looking employment growth estimates, if labor is the indicator used to determine when the US will enter a recession, look for a recession to hit in mid-2017. Then again, maybe May's jobs number will be magically revised up to the average, and NIRP will start generating real economic demand, and all will be right in the world - we'll go with the former.

Frontrunning: June 13

  • Chaos, Carnage Amid Orlando Rampage (WSJ)
  • FBI Twice Probed Orlando Gunman (WSJ)
  • How the Orlando Shooting Unfolded (WSJ)
  • Brexit fear factor sends stocks spinning (Reuters)
  • Pound Judgment Day Means Either D