• Gold Standard I...
    07/28/2015 - 04:17
    Greece has no future, so long as it clings to the euro. The dollar won't servce you much better. A drachma will only harm the Greek people. That leaves one other option.

Verizon

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Frontrunning: July 27





  • Chinese shares tumble 8.5 percent in biggest one-day drop since 2007 (Reuters)
  • Japan’s Economy Shrank Last Quarter, Top Forecaster Says (BBG)
  • Creditor teams in Athens to work on third bailout (AFP)
  • Tsipras’s Paradox Is Six Months of Pain and Enduring Popularity (BBG)
  • Goldman-Backed Instant Messaging Company Seeks New Investment (WSJ)
  • Best Buy will sell the Apple Watch on August 7th (Engadget) - when is it coming to Dollar General?
  • Senate votes to revive Ex-Im (Hill)
  • U.S.-Turkey Deal Paves Way to Set Up Buffer Zone in Northern Syria (WSJ)
 
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Apple, Microsoft Plunge Drags Global Markets Lower, Oil Resumes Slide





While this week has been, and continues to be, devoid of macro updates, yesterday's flurry of mostly disappointing earnings releases both before and after the open, including some of the biggest DJIA companies as well as the current and previously biggest and most important companies in the world, AAPL and MSFT, both of which came crashing down following earnings and forecasts that were well short of market expectations, came as a jolt to a market that was artificially priced by central bank liquidity and HFT momo algos beyond perfection. Add to that yesterday's downward revision to historical industrial production which confirmed the US economy is a step away from recession, as well as last night's Crude API inventory build which is once again pressuring WTI lower and on the verge of a 49 handle, and perhaps the biggest question is why are futures not much lower.

 
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Commodity Rout Halted On Dollar Weakness, Equities Unchanged





If yesterday's market action was boring, today has been a virtual carbon copy which started with the usual early Chinese selloff levitating into a mildly positive close, with the SHCOMP closing just above the psychological 4,000 level: the next big hurdle will be 4058, the 38.2% Fib correction of the recent fall. In the US equity futures are currently unchanged ahead of a day in which there is no macro economic data but lots of corporate earnings led by Microsoft, Verizon, UTX and of course Apple. Most importantly, some modest USD weakness overnight (DXY -0.1%) has helped the commodity complex, with gold rebounding from overnight lows, while crude has at least stopped the recent carnage which sent WTI below $50.

 
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Futures Levitate After Greek Creditors Repay Themselves; Commodities Tumble To 13 Year Low





Today's action is so far an exact replica of Friday's zero-volume ES overnight levitation higher (even if Europe's derivatives market, the EUREX exchange, did break at the open for good measure leading to a delayed market open just to make sure nobody sells) with the "catalyst" today being the official Greek repayment to both the ECB and the IMF which will use up €6.8 billion of the €7.2 billion bridge loan the EU just handed over Athens so it can immediately repay its creditors. In other words, Greek creditors including the ECB, just repaid themselves once again. One thing which is not "one-time" or "non-recurring" is the total collapse in commodities, which after last night's precious metals flash crash has sent the Bloomberg commodity complex to a 13 year low.

 
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Frontrunning: July 15





  • Tsipras Braves Parliament on Aid as Greek Outlook Worsens (BBG)
  • European markets rise before Yellen speech, Greek vote (Reuters)
  • China’s Growth Beats Economists’ Forecast as Stimulus Kicks In (BBG)
  • China stocks drop again, positive data shrugged off (Reuters)
  • Yellen intensifies Republican outreach amid Fed probe, Senate bill (Reuters)
  • Iran deal holds both promise and peril for Hillary Clinton (Reuters)
  • Iranians Party Into the Night as Khamenei Backs Accord (BBG)
 
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Michael Whalen: Why the Streaming Music Business is Broken





Time for the musicians to learn the lessons that the video guys in Hollywood learned from them...

 
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Frontrunning: June 19





  • Greek PM optimistic on debt deal as banks bleed (Reuters)
  • Greek central bank chief says banking system stable (Kathimerini)
  • ECB Said to Confer on Emergency Greek Aid Amid Cash Flight (BBG)
  • More tax "avoidance": Citigroup to shift European retail banking HQ to Dublin (Reuters)
  • Florist's tip led police to Charleston shooting suspect (USAToday)
  • Asian shares edge higher on Fed caution, China sell-off intensifies (Reuters)
  • Toyota in damage control mode after American exec arrested (Reuters)
  • Venezuela Oil Loans Go Awry for China (WSJ)
 
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FBI Confirms No Major Terrorism Cases Cracked Via Unconstitutional Patriot Act Phone Spying





"FBI agents can’t point to any major terrorism cases they’ve cracked thanks to the key snooping powers in the Patriot Act, the Justice Department’s inspector general said in a report Thursday that could complicate efforts to keep key parts of the law operating... Inspector General Michael E. Horowitz said that between 2004 and 2009, the FBI tripled its use of bulk collection under Section 215 of the Patriot Act, which allows government agents to compel businesses to turn over records and documents, and increasingly scooped up records of Americans who had no ties to official terrorism investigations."

 
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Constitution 1 - 0 Government: NSA Starts Winding Down Bulk Data Collection





As we detailed earlier, in a chaotic scene during the wee hours of Saturday, Senate Republicans blocked a bill known as the USA Freedom Act - backed by President Barack Obama, House Republicans and the nation's top law enforcement and intelligence officials - which would have preserved the government's ability to search phone company records for suspected spies and terrorists. As AP reports, the failure to act means the NSA will immediately begin curtailing its previously-secret bulk data collection progreams with The DoJ noting that while it will take time to taper off the collection process, that process began Friday (according to an administration official). Sen. Rand Paul called the Senate's failure to allow an extension of the surveillance programs a victory for privacy rights, adding "we should never give up our rights for a false sense of security."

 
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Frontrunning: May 14





  • Amtrak train in Philadelphia wreck was traveling at twice speed limit (Reuters)
  • The engineer has no recollection of the crash and “no explanation” for what happened (WSJ)
  • Taliban claim attack on Afghan guesthouse that killed 14 (Reuters)
  • Chicago’s Junk Rating From Moody’s Puzzles Investors (BBG)
  • House votes to end spy agencies' bulk collection of phone data (Reuters)
  • Wesley Clark: The Penny-Stock General (BBG)
  • AOL’s Armstrong to Leave $213 Million Richer After Verizon Deal (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: May 13





  • Obama, McConnell missteps undercut trade pact in U.S. Senate (Reuters)
  • Bears Beware: Rout Puts Investors on Wrong Side of Central Banks (BBG)
  • U.S. Set to Rip Up UBS Libor Accord, Seek Conviction (BBG)
  • Greece’s Creditors Said to Seek EU3 Billion in Budget Cuts (BBG)
  • Amtrak train derails in Philadelphia, killing at least five (Reuters)
  • Oil glut worsens as OPEC market-share battle just beginning (Reuters)
  • China Stimulus Aims at Restructuring Trillions in Local-Government Debt (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: May 12





  • Bonds Extend Global Rout as Europe Stocks Slide, Dollar Weakens (BBG)
  • Verizon Communications to Buy AOL for $4.4 Billion (BBG)
  • Fresh Nepal earthquake kills dozens, triggers panic (Reuters)
  • Sen. Shelby to Unveil Legislation Heightening Fed Scrutiny (WSJ)
  • Bill Gross: The Amount of Money I'll Give Away 'Is Staggering, Even to Me' (BBG)
  • U.S. rejects notion that Gulf rulers snubbing Obama summit (Reuters)... what about AIIB?
  • In Asia, Debt Market Gets Tougher (WSJ)
  • Iran’s Mahan airline defies sanctions in shadowy aircraft deal (FT)
 
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Here We Go Again: Verizon To Buy AOL Marking Another Tech Bubble Top





The last time AOL was involved in a mega merger was January 2000, when AOL acquired Time Warner for $182 billion in what was the mega deal of the last tech bubble, creating a $350 billion behemoth. Fast forward 15 years and here is AOL again in yet another period-defining if far, far smaller transaction once again, when moments ago Verizon announced that it would acquire AOL for $50/share, a deal value of $4 .4billion. And with that the golden age of digital (and in many cases robotic) content, has now been top-ticked.

 

 
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If European Countries Were US Corporations





The following map from Goldman compares the entire market cap of various European companies to assorted standalone US corporations. The result is just a touch eerie.

 
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