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Frontrunning: June 17

  • Sell-off abates as Brexit opinion seen shifting (Reuters)
  • IMF chief Lagarde says economic risks bigger if Britain leaves EU (Reuters)
  • U.S. State Department Officials Call for Strikes Against Syria’s Assad (WSJ)
  • St. Louis Fed's Bullard says U.S. may only need single rate hike for now (Reuters)
  • A Life of Violent Threats Paved Way for Orlando Attack (WSJ)

Global Stocks Rebound As Brexit Odds Decline Following Tragic Death Of UK Lawmaker

While it may very well not last and all of yesterday's gains could evaporate instantly if the Brexit vote is set to take place as scheduled, all 10 industry groups in the MSCI All-Country World Index advanced, with the index rising 0.7% trimming the week’s drop 1.6%. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.4%. Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed, after equities Thursday snapped their longest losing streak since February. . Oil rose, paring its biggest weekly decline in more than two months. Bond yields around the globe fell.

Global Stocks Continue To Plunge As Central Banks Disappoint, Brexit Looms

Futures on the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, as U.S. equities are on track to extend losses for a sixth day.  Europe's Stoxx 600 fell to a four-month low, sliding 1% for its sixth decline in seven days, and U.S. crude retreated for a sixth day in the longest losing streak since February. Bond yields sank to records in Germany, Australia after Japan as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said next week’s U.K. vote on European Union membership was a factor in the decision to hold interest rates steady. The Yen surged more than 2% as the Bank of Japan refrained from adding any new stimulus,

Frontrunning: June 15

  • Osborne Warns of Brexit Tax Toll as ‘Leave’ Gains in Polls (BBG)
  • Clinton wins D.C. primary, has 'positive' meeting with Sanders (Reuters)
  • Federal grand jury could charge wife of Orlando shooter (Reuters)
  • Brexiteers swiftly closing in on Remain as poll reveals there’s just one point between the two sides (Sun)
  • Trump gains slightly on Clinton after Florida attack: Reuters/Ipsos poll (Reuters)

Frontrunning: June 10

  • Bund Brexit rally puts zero yield firmly in sight (Reuters)
  • Investors Shed Assets as Government-Bond Yields Hit Fresh Lows (WSJ)
  • Stocks Retreat With Oil as Record-Low Bond Yields Point to Angst (BBG)
  • Oil prices ease from 2016 highs on stronger dollar (Reuters)
  • Puerto Rico Debt Crisis Bill Passes U.S. House (WSJ)

Frontrunning: June 3

  • World stocks edge toward one-month high; U.S. jobs data eyed for Fed clues (Reuters)
  • Commodities Stand on Brink of Bull Market After Oil’s Recovery (BBG)
  • Brent crude oil holds above $50 on signs of rebalance (Reuters)
  • Clinton attacks Trump's foreign policy as a threat to U.S. safety (Reuters)
  • Trump strikes back at Clinton's 'phony' speech (Hill)
  • "We want food!', Venezuelans cry at protest near presidency (Reuters)

Futures Flat Ahead Of Strike-Impacted Jobs Report; Commodities Approach Bull Market

After yesterday's two key events, the ECB and OPEC meetings, ended up being major duds, the market is looking at the week's final and perhaps most important event of the week: the May payrolls report to generate some upward volatility and help stocks finally break out of the range they have been caught in for over a year.

Global Markets Flat, Coiled Ahead Of Today's Risk Events: OPEC And The ECB

There are just two drivers setting the pace for today's risk mood: the OPEC meeting in Vienna which started a few hours ago, and the ECB's announcement as well as Mario Draghi's press statement due out just one hour from now. Both are expected to not reveal any major surprises, with OPEC almost certainly unable to implement a production freeze while the ECB is expected to remain on hold and provide some more details on its corporate bond buying program, although there is some modest risk of upside surprise in either case.

Frontrunning: June 1

  • Japan PM delays sales tax hike, puts fiscal reform on back burner (Reuters)
  • Japanese Shoppers Keep Wallets Shut Despite Sales-Tax Delay (BBG)
  • Global stocks limp into June on oil and data slips (Reuters)
  • Euro zone factory growth remained tepid in May - PMI (Reuters)
  • China's factories steadying but weak, hopes for quick recovery fade (Reuters)

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide On Mediocre Manufacturing Data, Yen Surge

Following the latest set of global economic news, most notably a mediocre set of Chinese Official and Caixin PMIs, coupled with a mix of lackluster European manufacturing reports and an abysmal Japanese PMI, European, Asian stocks and U.S. stock index futures have continued yesterday's losses. Oil slips for 4th day, heading for the longest run of declines since April, as OPEC ministers gather in Vienna ahead of a meeting on Thursday to discuss production policy. The biggest winner was the Yen, rising 1%, with the USDJPY tumbling overnight and pushing both the Nikkei 1.6% lower and weighing on US futures.

Frontrunning: May 24

  • Asian stocks near 11-week lows, dollar bounces on Fed rate view (Reuters)
  • Poll Finds Lack of Enthusiasm for Clinton and Trump (WSJ)
  • Oil falls for fifth day as focus returns to growing exports (Reuters)
  • The Hedge Fund That Couldn't Stay Open Long Enough for a Big Payday (BBG)
  • French police break up refinery blockade in anti-reform showdown (Reuters)

Frontrunning: May 23

  • Global stocks see-saw, yields slip as investors get week off to cautious start (Reuters)
  • Bayer defies critics with $62 billion Monsanto offer (Reuters)
  • Iran has no plans to freeze oil exports, official says ahead of OPEC meeting (Reuters)
  • U.S. lifts arms ban on old foe Vietnam as regional tensions simmer (Reuters)
  • Anthem, Cigna Privately Bicker as They Seek Merger Approval (WSJ)

Futures Fade Early Bounce, Slide In Illiquid Tape As Yen Rises, Oil Drops

Government bonds rose and the yen strengthened as investors weighed the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next increase in interest rates and the outlook for inflation. Commodities slid, led by metals, while stocks in Europe declined. Treasury 30-year yields fell for a third day. The yen rose from near this month’s low. Futures on the S&P 500 also declined after initially jumping higher in thinly traded, illiquid tape.

Frontrunning: May 19

  • Fed Puts June Rate Increase on Table Provided Economy Says Go (BBG)
  • European shares drop as mining stocks weaken, airlines fall (Reuters)
  • Oil drops below $48 on Fed hike speculation, fading support from outages (Reuters)
  • Violent Struggle Over Oil and Money Rattles Global Energy Market (BBG)
  • Bayer Proposes to Acquire Monsanto (WSJ)