The core thread of next year's relatively downbeat "surprises" from Seabreeze Partners' Doug Kass is that the crowd is wearing Trump-colored glasses and that the single-biggest surprise is how quickly the bloom comes off the Trump flower.
A German court has ruled that seven Islamists who formed a vigilante patrol to enforce Sharia law on the streets of Wuppertal did not break German law and were simply exercising their right to free speech. The "politically correct" decision, which may be appealed, effectively authorizes the Sharia Police to continue enforcing Islamic law in Wuppertal.
"Yes, the parallels [with Reagan] are certainly there... I’ve been in touch with the Trump team. I’ve even written a book about Trump.... But those guys are going to be surprised. They just have no idea what they’re up against....I’ve seen it happen. There are alligators in that swamp."
Pricing at 1.085%, a 0.1 basis point tail to the 1.084% When Issued, today's 2Y auction yield was the highest since the 1.09% auction in December 2009. The high yield would have likely been even higher if there was no squeeze in repo.
As part of Donald Trump's "fluid" proposals and trial balloons on how to implement his economic policies, adviser Steven Mnuchin told reporters on Wednesday that the Trump transition team is weighing an "infrastructure bank" to make investments in America's aging infrastructure. Mnuchin said that a "very big focus is regulatory changes, looking at the creation of an infrastructure bank to fund infrastructure investments” which to Wall Street was pure poetry as it heard just two words: "more debt.
"If the BoJ sticks to defending zero in a world where the US is likely to increase fiscal spending then you could make an argument that there is full blown helicopter money except that the BoJ is flying the copter over the US and may be about to become the new US government’s best friend."
Yesterday we wondered how long the broader market would ignore the carnage taking place across emerging markets, instead focusing on making the Dow Jones Industrial Average both great, and all time high, again. Today, we got our answer.
If yesterday's 10Y and today's 30Y are indicative of how "easy", or rather difficult it will be to sell debt for the Trump administration, the market may want to significantly reign in its expectations for a $5 trillion incremental boost to the US debt, which at this rate will only happen if the Fed is out there scooping it up in yet another QE operation.
This was about as ugly an auction as we have seen in years, and if this is indicative of how the market will treat the Trump administration, we may find ourselves in an entirely new regime: one where the bond vigilantes take on not the Fed, but the president. Where have we seen that? Oh yes, in Italy in 2011. That particular episode resulted in the ouster of Berlusconi.
The zombie economy is moribund, the productive people have been pillaged, and the bread and circus act is running on fumes. The American welfare/warfare state is crumbling. The ruling elite are desperate. They don’t want their Ponzi scheme to end, but they always fail. It’s a confidence game, and the game is over. The economic crisis is foreseeable to anyone with their eyes open. This empire will crumble and fall, just as others before throughout history.