The mysterious ZARJPY indicator of global turmoil is flashing red once again as BofAML's Michael Hartnett warns of soaring sentiment into a potential "summer of shocks." Wall Street/Fed continues to play "cat and mouse" and (hedge fund) redemption, (central bank) repression, (market) regulation risks remain very high as the flash crash/pain trade era to continue.
Mind the terminal growth assumption. The warning signs are everywhere that what lies on the other side is not a world of 24.3X valuations.
The two concepts - NIRP and deficits - dovetail in a fairly terrifying way: All the new debt we take on to rekindle growth will have to be refinanced in the future. So the more we borrow now the more we’ll have to roll over then — and the bigger the impact on government budgets of an eventual rate normalization. Unless the ultimate plan is to never raise rates to old-school positive levels, in which case the world of the future is so different from that of the past that we may as well toss existing theories of market dynamics and individual freedom out the window.
- Global Stocks Slip Following Fed’s Cautious Tone (WSJ)
- Oil rallies towards $41, near 2016 high, on producer meeting (Reuters)
- Hamptons luxury home sales soften as Wall Street weakness takes a toll (Reuters)
- Obama picks centrist high court nominee; Republicans unmoved (Reuters)
- Allies See Challenges for Hillary Clinton in a General Election Campaign (WSJ)
Will today be central bankers' Waterloo? We'll see, as Mario Draghi stares down sky-high expectations for ECB easing.
While conventional wisdom suggests that US government bond yields have nowhere to go but up, we believe the economic fundamentals will continue to weigh on interest rates for the foreseeable future.
Bears Exit Hibernation As Rally Fizzles On Dismal Chinese Trade Data; Commodities Slide; Gold HigherSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/08/2016 07:49 -0400
Those algos who scrambled to paint yesterday's closing tape with that last second VIX slam sending the S&P back over 2,000, forgot one thing - the same thing that China also ignored - central bankers can not print trade, something we have repeated since 2011. The world got a harsh reminder of this last night when China reported the third largest drop in exports in history, which crashed by over 25%, the third biggest drop on record, and no, it was not just the base effect from last February's spike, as otherwise the combined January-February data would offset each other, instead it was a joint disaster, meaning one can't blame the Lunar New Year either. In short, one can't really blame anything aside from the real culprit: despite all the lipstick that has been put on it, global trade is grinding to a halt.
"What the Afghans are doing is not wrong in Afghanistan, so your rules are completely alien to them... If you want to stop Afghans from molesting Swedish girls, you need to be tough on them. Making them take classes on equality and how to treat women is pointless."
- Fight night: Rubio, Cruz gang up on Trump in debate ploy (Reuters)
- Laid Bare in Shanghai: G-20 Tensions Over How to Spur Growth (BBG)
- China Flags Scope for Policy Stimulus, Tweaks Monetary Stance (BBG)
- Global Stocks Rise With Commodities as China Sees Room to Ease (BBG)
- Greece seeks to stem migrant flow as thousands trapped by border limits (Reuters)
"Arm yourselves...Be ready when the wolf comes to the door, because it's on its way..." Trying to take away Americans' guns "will cause a revaolution."
It is more evident than ever that the world economy is heading into a deflationary conflagration, but today’s generation of house trained bulls wouldn’t recognize a warning if it slapped them upside their horns. They refused once again last week to exit the casino because they got another signal from Hilsenramp that the Fed is on “hold” until at least next March. Call it Ostrich Economics. But do it quick. Those side-effects are coming to the casino some day real soon.
"Short-term, markets seem intent on forcing either the Fed to pass in September, or the Chinese to launch a more comprehensive and credible policy package to boost growth expectations. Alternatively, a credit event in commodities (note CDS is widening sharply for resources companies – front page chart) may be necessary to cause policy-makers to panic. Markets stop panicking when central banks start panicking."
The preposterous Gong Show in Brussels over the weekend was the financial “Ben Tre” moment for the Euro and ECB. That is, it was the moment when the Germans - imitating the American military on that ghastly morning in February 1968 - set fire to the Eurozone in order to save it. In short, Greece will become an outright debtors’ colony and its government will function as page-boy legislators for the Troika occupiers. Needless to say, political and social upheaval will erupt when the full extent of the Tsipras surrender becomes evident, and the resulting political contagion will spread throughout the length and breadth of Europe as Greece implodes. In due course, the euro will collapse and the baleful Keynesian money printers’ regime in Frankfurt will be repudiated and dismantled. But not before European democracy has a brush with death, and European prosperity is extinguished for a generation.