Vigilantes

UPDATE: Gas Prices reach all-time high in Oklahoma City

With the bond vigilantes still suppressed by the heavy boot of central bank intervention, the role of 'governor' of monetary (and fiscal implicitly) largesse has been left to the energy markets around the world. As we noted here, the Brent Vigilantes have indeed capped economic gains in the past few years (and perhaps more worryingly for investors, as we detailed here, have capped P/E expansion hopes). Sure enough, with a one-month lead, crude oil prices are leading retail gas prices higher (now near three-month highs) which point to a rally-ending, economy-sapping $3.80 price within the next few weeks (unless oil prices are rapidly suppressed too).

No news is the best news. Quite a week across every asset class dominated by the last two days as USDJPY broke 100 and seemingly all hell broke loose (apart from in stocks). Spikes in Treasury yields (10Y and 30Y +15bps on the week); a surging USD (+1.3%) driven by major JPY and AUD weakness (-2.75%) and the biggest drop in EUR in 6 weeks; Gold and Silver sold off hard (-3.5%) before bouncing back this afternoon ending -1.5% on the week; crude oil plunged but the Brent Vigilantes were not so easily beaten and ripped back above $96 and higher to close the week. Bond-like stocks (Utes) were hammered as high-beta cyclicals (homebuilders) ripped and while stock indices rolled over a little they remain near highs. It's not all sunshine and ponies though... credit markets drastically underperformed (playing catch down from an exuberant few days but sending a clear message to stocks) and the VIX curve steepened rather significantly around the Labor Day horizon - a date that represents desk chatter for "tapering" and debt ceiling drama to re-appear). S&P futures exhibited a spooky 15-min cycle zig-zag pattern this afternoon - in a totally human way... and average trade size was very low (algos) - right before the late-day ramp.

Back in February we introduced the world to their last best hope in controlling the largesse of the world's central bankers. The 'Brent Vigilantes' were shown to have taken over the mantle of the now totally-repressed and benign bond vigilantes (since deficits don't matter apparently). Each time retail gas prices have breached $3.80 in the past six years, the S&P 500 has crested (specifically the crossing of that threshold has seen P/E multiple expansion brought to a halt). With current gas prices around $3.53, we hear you cry, "what are you worried about?" Well, simply put, the answer lies in what is coming. Prices at the pump follow crude oil prices extremely closely with around a 30-day lag; the current WTI crude prices imply a price of gas at the pump around $3.80. So, if there is anything that can stop us from hitting 2,000 on the S&P 500 (or Dow 30,000), we suspect it is the 'tax' that gas prices represent and we now know what the trajectory of those prices is likely to be in the next few weeks.

S&P futures volume was the lowest (ex-holidays) since October today and the intraday range was in stocks was practically its lowest all year. However, that did nothing to hamper the inexorable rise of stocks - though today was different. FX carry markets (JPY-based) were not supportive (especially AUD) as the main theme of the equity markets today appeared to be rotation - from defensives to aggressives. Correlations across asset classes were quite high as Treasury yields continued to push higher post-NFP (30Y +15bps holding at 2.99% since then). The credit fade from Friday gave way as HY especially snapped tighter in spreads catching up to stocks. Draghi's comments snapped EUR lower which provided the USD strength (but AUD also helped with its weakness). Gold ended unchanged as oil prices tested up to multi-month highs (Brent Vigilantes) before fading back a little.

"Records being smashed left and right on Wall Street today" Better-than-expected 'mediocre' payrolls data was enough to drive pre-open S&P futures well over 1600, provide just the right sprinkling of short-covering scramble and euphoria to smash the Dow through 15,000 and the S&P through 1,600 and up to its long-term up-trend. Treasuries snapped higher in yield, catching up to equity exuberance (after disagreeing all week). The Brent Vigilantes are awake and paying attention with their biggest 2-day rise in nine months with WTI back above $96. Copper also surged (+3.9% on the week) and Gold/Silver ended +0.5% on the week. FX markets went wild around the NFP print - JPY crumbled (ending the week -1%) but EUR round-tripped from its initial dip; JPY-carry was very supportive of today's excitement (until late on). Risk markets in general stayed highly correlated until some give back into the close that stocks ignored. Credit markets were not amused and faded the initial equity spike all day.

"Off the highs" is perhaps the phrase that the mainstream should be using. The S&P gave up allits post-EU-close gains into the US close. It seems, as we noted earlier, that AAPL capturing its 50DMA, relative strength in VIX and Bonds, and a total lack of volume just could not lift the S&P 500 to new highs. The early short squeeze provided the momentum but that faded into the last hour or so. USD weakness supported the risk rally (as very little else did) and commodities were all higher on the day with the Brent Vigilantes on the prowl once again as WTI topped $94.50 back to near 3-week highs. AAPL's best day in over 3 months (up to its 50DMA) led Tech to lead the day (and the Nasdaq was the notable outperformer). The exuberance led stocks rich relative to all risk-assets and the slide into the close merely corrected to that risk-asset-proxy. JPY carry was not helpful as JPY tried and failed to recover the 98.00 level. Silver outperformed. With the Japanese on vacation last night, JPY's rip into the close is a little worrying for the risk-on crowd but month-End here we come...

After touching multi-year highs amid the exuberance of liquidity sloshing around the world, Oil became too glaring a concern and two weeks of suppression took the only Central-Bank-'Governor' to much more comfortable levels. But, the last week has seen the biggest 5-day jump in WTI in 8 months and today the biggest jump in 5 months. It seems the 'Brent Vigilantes' are back. Equities traded in a very narrow range after yesterday's #HashCrash and eMini volumes were among the lowest of the year. An early afternoon ramp, aided by EURUSD, failed at overnight highs and collapsed back to VWAP as the machines were in charge once again. Treasuries rallied from early morning high yields ending the day lower in yield (TSY yields down 1-2bps on the week against a 30 point rally in the S&P!!) Durable goods dismal data just reinforced Europe's donut and stirred the bad-is-good mantra as Trannies outperformed, but interestingly once again the Dow was unable to break above pre-Boston levels. FX markets were relatively calm for once as gold, silver, and copper all gained. VIX ended up for the day by 0.25vols at 13.75%.

When you have a few good bureaucratic central planners preserving a broke monetary regime, what can possibly go wrong? Perhaps headlines such as these:

• Senior German Official - No Idea When Or If Cypriot Parliament Will Vote On Proposed Bailout Programme
• Senior German Official - Situation In Cyprus Is Bad, Reasons For This Lie In Cyprus
• Senior German Official - With No Programme, Liquidity To Cypriot Banks Is In Danger And They Cannot Open

And then Schrodinger Schauble himself:

• SCHAEUBLE SAID TO TELL LAWMAKERS FEELS SORRY FOR CYPRIOT PEOPLE
• SCHAEUBLE SAID TO SAY CYPRUS LONG HAD WRONG BUSINESS MODEL

Wait, being a participant in a monetary cul-de-sac, whose eventual end leads to a very painful and often times lethal, hyperinflationary outcome, is a wrong business model? Who could have known. Naturally, with well-wishers like these, who needs bond vigilantes?

Perhaps there is a reason why Bernanke has not been completely hysterical about the sequester crashing his free-money induced party. The following chart shows the relatively strong correlation between US military spending and oil prices over the past 25 years. As we have discussed in depth, there is only one thing that can stop an over-confident central banker - the Brent Vigilantes - but should the sequester kick in with all its defense-spending slashing might, perhaps - just perhaps - that will weigh on the price of oil at the margin and provide just enough cushion for Bernanke et al. to do moar to maintain their key policy tool - the equity index.

About a year ago we warned that in a world devoid of bond vigilantes, long emasculated by the Fed's relentless attempt to bring inflation back or go bust trying, the only forces left willing to stand up to Bernanke are the Brent Vigilantes TM, who succeed in crushing every recent reflation attempt whenever Brent reaches $130 or above (and US gas at the pump rises above $3.80) yet which are rather leery and susceptible to the CME's surprise margin-hike counterattacks, and of course China, the same China which every other lemming said last summer would scramble to join the global reflation except for us, as we made it very clear that all hopes of an RRR or interest rate cut are unfounded. Because all the inflation that China (did not) need would be exported to it courtesy of Bernanke and Company's deliberate and now open-ended printing. For a long time China kept its mouth shut, however, when Japan also joined in this pathological central bank pumping, China may have just had enough. As the WSJ reports,"The president of China's giant sovereign-wealth fund warned Japan against using its neighbors as a "garbage bin" by deliberately devaluing the yen, joining growing international griping about a potential currency war."

So this is what is happening in Oakland, one of the many forgotten about, left-behind corners of America, "Oakland’s crime problems have gotten so bad that some people aren’t even bothering to call the cops anymore; instead, they’re trying to solve and prevent crimes themselves." Since we all know by now the bureaucracy will not be coming to the rescue, the sooner we figure out solutions on our own the better. Welcome to the recovery!

A successful entrepeneur's take on the European sitaution...

With the world so obviously gripped in currency war even the hotdog guy has moved away from saying how technically undervalued AAPL stock is to opining on who is leading the global race to debase, it was only a matter of time before the G-7 confirmed the only strategy left is FX devaluation by denying it. Sure enough, a preliminary statement from the G-7 came earlier, in which the leading "developed" nations said, well, absolutely nothing:

We, the G7 Ministers and Governors, reaffirm our longstanding commitment to market determined exchange rates and to consult closely in regard to actions in foreign exchange markets. We reaffirm that our fiscal and monetary policies have been and will remain oriented towards meeting our respective domestic objectives using domestic instruments, and that we will not target exchange rates. We are agreed that excessive volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will continue to consult closely on exchange markets and cooperate as appropriate.

This follows a statement by the US Treasury's Lael Branaird yesterday in which she said that she is supportive of the effort in Japan to end deflation and “reinvigorate growth”. Lastly, the SNB's Jordan also confirmed that the Swiss National Bank will continue to do everything to crush its own currency, and will the 1.20 EURCHF floor, stating that Japan is merely doing the right thing to stimulate growth (i.e., doing what "we" are doing).  In other words, let the FX wars continue and may the biggest balance sheet win, all the while everyone pretends nothing is happening.

The flood of Central Bank liquidity into the world's asset markets has worked wonders for the optics of 'wealth' in the last few years. While correlation is not causation, the divergence from any sense of fundamental reality (and sheer miracle expectations of the future) simply reflect back to the leaking of that central bank liquidity into risk markets everywhere. However, there appears to be a limiter - or self-governor - that comes along every few months to tap the world's 'belief in economic miracles' on the shoulder. With the world's sovereign bond markets now repressed or 'managed'; the only 'self-regulator" (almost) beyond the control of the central banks is simply, the cost of energy - and a new breed of Brent Vigilantes^TM

In a quiet corner of Davos this week, Davide Serra (hedge fund manager) and Nouriel Roubini (doom-monger) laid out to the great and good attending just exactly what their puppet central-banking transmission channels were doing to our world. As The Telegraph reports, "Money printing is theft from our children and may merely be storing up problems for an even bigger crisis." QE has led to gross mis-allocation of capital, the two gentlemen go on to note, adding that they comprehend the reasoning why Bernanke's Put has replaced Greenspan's but add that in doing this money-printing-by-another-name, they have "made it difficult for bond vigilantes to do their job - force fiscal reform." QE just buys time - but the time must be used wisely. Roubini warned that central bankers need to think about turning off the cheap money tap or risk creating another, possibly even worse, bubble.