Volatility

European Banks Prepare For "Economic Nuclear Winter"

While some European bank stocks have scrambled back some of their plunge losses post-Brexit, the current uncertainty over when the U.K. will start the process of quitting the EU has banks on tenterhooks, with a source telling CNBC that banks are "preparing for an economic nuclear winter situation." With negative rates (and a plunging yield curve) banks' earnings are under threat but the concerns over the potential for contagious European break-up and collapse of the pound after Article 50 is signed is existential.

Hedge Funds Are "All In" Again

With year-end bonuses due in just 4 months, and with hedge funds significantly underperforming the market in absolute and risk-adjusted terms as of this moment, bonuses are not looking good. So what do hedge funds do? Why go all in of course.

Dear Janet... A Memo From Millennials To The Fed

The Federal Reserve’s long-term influence hinges in part on its ability to convince millennials that its current policies can help push inflation closer to the central bank’s 2% goal. That’s not as easy as it sounds, because this cohort has both a different history and current relationship with this economic variable. Why?

Another Warning Sign

While there are many hopes of an end to the current “profits” recession, there is mounting evidence those hopes may once again be disappointed. One of the latest such indications is rising employee compensation. While rising employee compensation is good from the view it should lead to rising consumption, it also reduces corporate profitability (wages reduce profits.) Furthermore, this is especially problematic currently as rising compensation is being offset by soaring healthcare costs due to the Affordable Care Act.

"Will Yellen Shock Today?"

Well, we made it. It’s finally Janet Yellen day. Has a speech by a Fed Chair ever been anticipated, dissected and stressed over to this extent? It’s partially down to the fact that she has largely, even unprecedentedly, made herself unavailable for public comment. Sending her minions out to confuse us. But more distressingly, they have put themselves in a situation where a measly 25 basis points looms like a life-changing event. 

GoldCore's picture

Possibly, the most vitriolic, hateful and divisive election in U.S. history is set to be witnessed and this will likely lead to considerable volatility in markets and should see the dollar come under pressure. Seasonally gold is entering the sweet spot with the Autumn being gold's best season and with September being gold's best month (see chart)

With Janet Yellen Just Hours Away, Directionless Markets Wait For A Signal

With Yellen's much anticipated speech just hours away, the already comatose market flatlined overnight in another directionless session, with European stocks and US equity futures practically unchanged, while Asian shares to a two-week low, led by Japan, as investors showed a reluctance to take on risk before Yellen’s speech. The dollar was a tad lower, along with oil which is set for its first weekly drop in a month. 

Treasury Vol Crashes To 2016 Lows

With all eyes focused on the collapse in equity risk over the last few months, it seems Treasuries have been ignored. This week has seen intraday trading ranges for 10Y Treasury yields crash to 2016 lows. The last time the volatility was this compressed was early June, which pre-empted a major surge in risk, slide in stocks, and drop in rates...

The Lowest Vol In A Lifetime

In times gone by, of course, exceptionally low financial market volatility was a source of concern for policymakers.   Such conditions, they knew, were unlikely to last but might encourage behaviour that could threaten financial stability when the volatility regime and market risk premia normalized. Fast forward to today, and while there has been the occasional brief mention of the reach for yield, there's been nary a mention of the potentially pernicious problems posed by low volatility.

Global Stocks Decline Along With The Dollar, As Jackson Hole Begins

Global stocks declined broadly, led by European equities which fell for the first time this week while currency markets continued their subdued tone even as the recent 4-day rally in the USD appears to have topped out, as investors took to sidelines ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting which begins tonight. Japanese and Chinese stocks had suffered modest drops in Asia.  S&P 500 Index futures slipped 0.2%, continuing yesterday's modest selloff.

S&P Set For New Record Highs As Futures, Dollar Rise; Oil Slides

In a rerun of yesterday's overnight session, European indexes trade higher while US index futures were modestly in the green, set to propel the S&P 500 to new all time highs. Emerging Market dropped the most in three weeks alongside commodities, as today the market was predisposed hawkishly on a US rate hike ahead of Yellen's Friday speech, pushing the US dollar higher and oil resumed its pre "anonymous sources" headlines slide.

WTI Slides After Biggest Inventory Build In 4 Months

Amid the volatility of crude prices, inventory levels, and headline hockey; API printed a surprisingly large 4.464mm crude build (against expectations of a 850k draw). Having spiked early in the day on Iran rumors (and failed to fall on denials), WTI kneejerked lower after the API data showed the biggest crude build in over 4 months (and a bigger than expected build at Cushing).