The word of the day is “ugly”. That’s how Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank CIO and chief economist describes the US presidential campaign, broken social contracts, public debt, and productivity. Things are so ugly, Jakobsen says “failure is almost guaranteed” regardless of who wins the election.
European, Asian stocks fell while S&P futures rebounded as investors assessed a mixed batch of earnings reports while the dollar strengthened to 9 month highs versus most of peers on rising confidence that the Fed will raise rates this year, pushing global bond yields higher.
The "Buy and Hold" narrative spewed by every asset-gatherer and commission-taker is perhaps far better understood as "buy and hold on tight" as the following chart shows, for many, equity exposure is simply inappropriate (or too scary)!
With all the surprising and/or disturbing things going on – Brexit, China’s soaring debt, US/Russia/China saber rattling, the, um, unique US presidential race, the cyber attack that shut down big parts of the US Internet – you’d think that an unsettled world would be reflected in skittish financial markets. Instead we’re getting the opposite...
Rage is all the rage these days, but as Barclays notes, what appears less well understood is that this voter rebellion, “the Politics of Rage”, spans nearly all advanced economies, has been taking place for more than a decade, is unparalleled in modern history, and is deeply entrenched.
After a furious rally in the past week on hopes that Italy's oldest, and most insolvent, bank, Siena's Monte Paschi has turned the corner and would return to profitability while outside investors would finally help it in its seemingly endless quest to find $5 billion in outside capital, today BMPS shares plunged after first opening limit up in what can only be characterized as a roller coast market.
European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are all up again in early trading, a repeat of the Monday session, buoyed by a generally upbeat corporate earnings season, rising economic confidence and signs of improvement in the world’s biggest economies. After Charles Evans' hawkish comments on Monday, the market is now pricing in a 71% chance of a rate increase this year, up from 68% last week.
"The research shows that HFT market makers in both Bund and DAX futures markets temporarily reduce liquidity... the different behaviors of active and passive high-frequency trading firms indicate a heightened risk of periods of short-term excessive volatility, which could encourage market upheavals as far as flash events."