• Tim Knight from...
    02/06/2016 - 00:25
    What we must remember is this: we are in a bear market, and the risk of a countertrend rally is present, but confined. The opportunity on the downside movement dwarfs the risk of a push higher, as...
  • Phoenix Capital...
    02/06/2016 - 10:15
    2008 was caused by derivatives based on consumer-focused assets (houses). The next crisis will be driven by derivatives on government-focused assets (bonds).

Volatility

Tyler Durden's picture

The First Warning Sign That Cushing May Be About To Overflow





Enterprise Products Partners has told at least some counterparties that it is experiencing delays in delivering crude from its tanks, according to three sources who were informed of unspecified "terminalling and pump" issues.  The hiccups may be a sign of things to come as traders fear a further increase in stocks at Cushing would test the upper limits of tanks and cause the next leg of an 18-month rout.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Unchanged, Global Stock Algos Anemic Ahead Of U.S. Payrolls Report





US futures were largely unchanged overnight, with a modest bounce after the European close driven by a feeble attempt to push oil higher, faded quickly and as of this moment the E-mini was hugging the flatline ahead of today's main event - the January payrolls, expected to print at 190K and 5.0% unemployment, however the whisper number - that required to push stocks higher - is well lower, at 150K (according to DB), as only a bad (in fact very bad) jobs number today will cement the Fed's relent and assure no more rate hikes in 2016 as the market now largely expects.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Kyle Bass Asks If China Is Fine, Why Are They So Worried About "Some Hedge Fund Manager In Texas"





“If some fund manager in Texas is saying that your currency is dramatically overvalued, you shouldn’t care on a $10 trillion economy with $34 trillion in your banks. I have, call it a billion - it’s so small it should be irrelevant and yet somehow it’s really relevant.”

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"HY Primary Markets Are All But Shut" - What Keeps BofA's Junk Bond Analyst Up At Night





"HY primary markets are all but shut except for very high quality issuers. And if this trend continues for a while (the probability of which in our opinion is very high), we could envision a world where enterprises, big and small, find it harder to acquire financing across all industries, leading to widespread defaults, even outside of commodities."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Real Reason For Oil's Crazy Volatility This Week





The volatility in crude oil trading has reached the highest levels since Lehman's systemic crisis in 2008. Intraday swings of 5-10% are now de rigeur with OPEC and geopolitical headlines jockeying for narrative amid collapsing fundamentals.. but there is another, much bigger driver of this sudden chaos. As Reuters reports, the sudden liquidation of a $600 million triple-levered fund bet on falling prices wreaked havoc through the entire crude complex.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

S&P Downgrades Glencore To Lowest Investment Grade Rating





Overnight, one of the two rating agencies, Standard and Poors, came one step closer to that fateful moment of junking Glencore when it downgraded Glencore, however it decided to throw the company one last lifeline by keeping it at the very lowest investment grade rating, and instead of cutting it from BBB to single B or CCC where its CDS and bond yield implies the company should be trading, it kept it a BBB-.

 
Reggie Middleton's picture

When Mother Market Force Takes Over Central Banking! Watch Rates Rise Even Though the Fed Doesn't





Do you remember when Greenspan was befuddled when natural market rates wouldn't obey his commands in the previous decade? Well, I sure hope Yellen does. Even if she doesn't the high yield financed US energy probably won't be around long enough to find out.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why BofA Remains A Seller Until "A Coordinated And Aggressive Global Policy Response" Emerges





And so we are back to square one, where global economic growth is so weak that the Fed's relent is back in play, corporate earnings are collapsing, where 30% of global GDP is now produced in "NIRP" nations, and where more than half the global markets remain mired in a bear market, that the only thing that can "save us" is precisely the same thing that has brought us here: coordinated, global central bank intervention.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Credit Suisse Plunges To 25 Year Lows After Posting Enormous $5.8 Billion Q4 Loss





"The environment has deteriorated materially during the fourth quarter of 2015 and it is not clear when some of the current negative trends in financial markets and in the world economy may start to abate."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Flat As Dollar Weakness Persists, Crude Rally Fizzles





After yesterday's torrid, chaotic moves in the market, where an initial drop in stocks was quickly pared and led to a surge into the close after a weaker dollar on the heels of even more disappointing US data and Bill Dudley's "serious consequences" speech sent oil soaring and put the "Fed Relent" scenario squarely back on the table, overnight we have seen more global equity strength on the back of a weaker dollar, even if said weakness hurt Kuroda's post-NIRP world and the Nikkei erased virtually all losses since last Friday's surprising negative rate announcement. Oil and metals also rose piggybacking on the continued dollar weakness as the word's most crowded trade was suddenly shaken out.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman Capitulates: Revises Fed Call, No Longer Expects A March Rate Hike





Another day, another Goldman prediction fiasco, and no, we are not talking about the stop out of the firm's Top Trade for 2016, namely the long USDJPY, short EURUSD (although that should happen any minute) - we are talking about that perpetual permabull, Jan Hatzius, just admitting the economy is in far worse shape than expected (if only by him), and as a result he just "revised" his Fed rate hike call, no longer expecting a March hike, instead now forecasting that the first rate hike will be in June and "and see a total of three rate increases this year."

 
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