Volatility

ValueAct's Jeff Ubben Is Selling On "Overextended Valuations", Builds $3 Billion Cash Pile

Speaking at a Reuters activist conference, ValueAct's Jeffrey Ubben, said that his firm had been taking money out of the capital markets as valuations have become overextended, leaving it with $3 billion in cash.   "I really feel that the large-cap activist plays are very treacherous with high PEs (price-to-earnings) and not a lot of growth."

 

Eight Reasons Why The Dutch Election Matters

If 2016 was the year of the breakthrough, 2017 could see the status-quo fightback, with Europe likely to form the battleground ahead of pivotal elections. And, while next month's general election in The Netherlands may not be the biggest showdown of the year, the outcome could set the tone for 2017.

Mother Nature Massacres Natural Gas Bulls

"It’s been kind of worst-case scenario for the bulls... Mother nature continues to be bearish, ultra-bearish... The utter lack of (heating) demand is, in my opinion, 99.9 percent of the natural-gas story."

FOMC Minute Hint At Hike "Fairly Soon", But Warn Trump Policies May "Not Materialize", VIX Too Low

"...the recent increase in equity prices might in part reflect investors’ anticipation of a boost to earnings from a cut in corporate taxes or more expansionary fiscal policy, which might not materialize.... They also expressed concern that the low level of implied volatility in equity markets appeared inconsistent with the considerable uncertainty attending the outlook for such policy initiatives."

The 5 Key Things To Watch For In Today's Fed Minutes

Despite desperate attempts to jawbone March rate-hike-odds higher, because as Master said last night "we don't want to surprise the markets", Fed Funds Futures imply just a 36% chance (down from a week ago). That suggests, if The Fed is serious about March, that today's minutes must be spun towards that narrative. Here are the five key areas to watch for...

When Speculators Prosper Through Ignorance

"Speculators often prosper through ignorance; it is a cliche that in a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap. But the typical experience of the speculator is one of temporary profit and ultimate loss."

Blind Faith Everywhere

Beware of academics bearing models. Knowing prices are wrong and knowing when they are going to correct are two very different things - being able to survive until and through the correction is vital.

Hedge Fund Liquidity Plunges To "Danger Zone" For US Stocks

Simply put, the massively overcrowded hedge fund herding into US equities has created a crisis situation. With liquidity levels at record lows, the market will be unable to smoothly absorb any concerted selling pressure from large money managers.