Volatility

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Volatility Is The Square Root Of Time & Fat Tails





The trio of macro-prudential policy, the onset and evolution of shadow banking, and the nebulous concept of financial stability may have become a toxic cocktail which can be instrumental in moving forward the Federal Reserve’s timeline for lift-off zero bound rates.  The intuition here is stooped in concepts of volatility and how market structure evolution may contribute or detract from asset volatility. Volatility is the square root of time. Financial repression times time equals volatility. Financial repression and/or macro-prudential policy times time equals the inverse of financial stability. Financial stability inverted equals volatility squared.

 
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Of Bonds & Bankers: Impossible Things Are Commonplace





There was once a time, perhaps, when unprecedented things happened only occasionally. In today’s financial markets, unprecedented things are commonplace. The Queen in Lewis Carroll’s ‘[Alice] Through the Looking-Glass’ would sometimes believe as many as six impossible things before breakfast. She is probably working in the bond markets now, where believing anything less than twelve impossible things before breakfast is for wimps.

 
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Spot The Odd "VIX" Out





US Equity volatility (VIX) is trading at its lowest since early December, as the schizophrenic swings continue. However, Rates, FX, and Oil "VIX" all remain notably high...

 
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Forget "Grexit", "Grimbo" Has Arrived





The new term follows in the footsteps of the classic (but now tired) “Grexit” and its underrated predecessor “Graccident,” and refers to two of the four outcomes Citi imagines are possible in the unfolding Greek drama. The bad news: both scenarios involve capital controls, deposit flight, and defaults.

 
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BoJ QE Exit "Out Of The Question," Former Official Says As Morgan Stanley Talks JGB Liquidity





"If the BoJ persists with its current pace of JGB purchases, then the incentive for investors to reduce their holdings any further is likely to dwindle away within the next 18–24 months, at which point liquidity may evaporate altogether," Morgan Stanley says, calling liquidity the "major theme" in the JGB market. Meanwhile, a former MoF official claims the BoJ is now in so far over its head that an exit from stimulus is "out of the question."

 
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Living In A Post-Volatility World





Hence, if and when a genuine price for risk reappears, the effect may be greatly magnified as it was in the US housing market a few years back under not dissimilar circumstances. As Karl Popper noted, volatility can be suppressed in a capitalist system, but it must ultimately reappear. Sooner or later, we will face a good deal of fireworks.

 
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The Defaults Are Coming In HY Energy, UBS Warns





"Where are the defaults?" UBS asks, referring to the highly leveraged US shale complex. "They're coming," is the answer, as current bond prices assume oil prices in the 60s and 70s. 

 
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Wedges And Triangles: Big Move Ahead?





The central bank high is euphoric, the crash and burn equally epic. Be careful what monkey you invite to latch onto your back...

 
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Asian Euphoria Sends Nikkei Above 20,000, Fizzles In Europe On More Greek Fears; US Futures Down





Whether it is in sympathy with the now relentless surge in the Shanghai Composite which tacked on another 2.44% overnight to close at a fresh multi-year high just shy of 4400, well more than double from a year ago, or because Mrs Watanabe was unable to read the latest Japan trade data whose first trade surplus in 3 years hinted that there will be no new easing by the BOJ any time soon, but overnight the Nikkei closed above 20,000 for the first time in 15 years, with "makers of chocolate, mayonnaise, potato chips and household appliances" helping lift the Tokyo market according to the WSJ. The now daily Asian euphoria however did not last long in the European session, and after opening higher, the Stoxx Europe 600 slipped into negative territory just an hour into trading, and was down 0.4% by midmorning, lead by a near 1% decline on Athens' mains stock index, which has since recouped losses stemming from the overnight report that the ECB is considering an up to 50% haircut on Greek bank collateral, a move that would wipe out the Greek financial sector with ease.

 
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Well That Hasn't Happened Before - Exhibit 4





We have never, ever, seen equity market breadth diverge from equity market performance for such an extended period...

 
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Full Scapegoat Retard: Trader Arrested For 2010 Flash Crash





  • FUTURES TRADER ARRESTED FOR ALLEGED ROLE IN 2010 FLASH CRASH
  • FUTURES TRADER CHARGED WITH ILLEGALLY MANIPULATING STOCK MKT
  • SARAO HAS BEEN CHARGED WITH COMMODITIES, WIRE FRAUD: GOELMAN
  • SARAO WAS ARRESTED AT HIS HOME IN LONDON TODAY, GOELMAN SAYS
  • CFTC FILES CIVIL CASE AGAINST NAVINDER SINGH SARAO
 
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There Still Are Some Retail Investors Left: This Is What They Are Buying





What do retail investors do on volatile days like Friday’s jolt lower on the S&P 500? Thanks to one very large online broker’s publicly available order flow, we now know...

 
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This Technical Signaled The Last Two Market Crashes And It Just Happened





So the fundamental case for a 20-year bull run as BMO is calling for and certainly many other banks seem to be onboard with that is not looking great YTD.  In fact, most perma bulls have shy’d away from even mentioning fundamentals other than to say that generally they aren’t looking great but don’t worry the Fed is still engaged.   And so we feel its a worthwhile exercise to have a look at the technicals.

 
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