Volatility

Goldman Cuts Oil Price Target From $50 To $43 On Rising Global Surplus

While we await every new headline out of Algiers, overnight Goldman threw in the towel on its "transitory" oil market bullishness, and in a note by Damien Courvalin looking "Beyond Algiers, Weakening Oil Fundamentals", the bank cut its Q4 oil price target from $50 to $43, as the bank admits the previously anticipated rebalancing will take longer to achieve, and now expects "a global surplus of 400 kb/d in 4Q16 vs. a 300 kb/d draw previously."

Someone Has Quietly Put On "The Trump Hedge"

As a very observant Charlie McElligott of RBC points out, lost in a sleepy Friday morning session, there was a sneaky trade in November Fed Funds Futs (FFX), where somebody bot 9962 Calls in what was essentially a ‘Trump Hedge’ lotto-ticket that pays in the event that the FOMC were to LOWER the Fed Funds rate…thus, quite notable. 

Citi Slams "Increasingly Bizarre" Presidential Race As Morgan Stanley Unveils Trump "Contingency Plans"

Citi said that its "base case is for a Clinton victory and mostly continuity in policies, which would leave U.S. and global growth expectations relatively unchanged,” while describing the U.S. contest as “increasingly bizarre.” Bizarre or not, earlier this morning Morgan Stanley, whose base case is still a Clinton victory has presented several "contingency planning" scenarios in case Trump does win.

Frontrunning: September 26

  • Stocks Drop on Bank, Commodity Company Woes; Turkish Lira Falls (BBG)
  • Clinton and Trump to square off in highly anticipated debate showdown (Reuters)
  • Profit Slump for S&P 500 Heads for a Sixth Straight Quarter  (WSJ)
  • Oil rises as OPEC meets, volatility hits post-Doha high (Reuters)
  • Deutsche Bank Slumps to Fresh Record Low on Capital Concerns (BBG)
  • Police Videos Fail to Quiet Protests in Charlotte (WSJ)

Global Stocks Tumble, US Futures Slide On Deutsche Bank Fears, Central Bank And Commodity Concerns

While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds and the yen.

Bond Risk Crashes To 2-Year Lows As VIX Shorts Fold

After 10 straight weeks of increasingly bullish speculative positioning ('longer' stock futures and 'shorter' VIX futures), the last 2 weeks have seen short VIX bets plunge at the fastest rate since pre-Brexit and the Aug 2015 crash. At the same time as this surge to hedging, the day since The Fed's utterly farcical fold have seen bond volatility crash to its lowest in two years.

Why Hedge Funds Remain The Worst Performing Asset Class Of 2016

It's been a bad year for hedge funds as a result of significantly underperforming the market, coupled with the biggest wave of redemptions since the financial crisis. Unfortunately, according to the latest Goldman data, there is no reprieve in sight. As the following chart from David Kostin shows, both global macro hedge funds and equity long short funds are the worst performing assets YTD on both a total return and risk-adjusted basis.

"Eight Election Trades For November 8th"

On November 8th, the US Presidential election will take place. Below Bank of America lists eight trades, all specific to the election, some applicable to whoever wins, some dependent on the election result: