Volatility

5 Charts That Scream "This Is It"

With the stunning run-up in markets since 2009, investors can’t reasonably expect returns to continue at double the long-term average. At a time of exuberance, it’s important to remember markets are cyclical. The other takeaway from today’s valuations is that when the drawdown does come, it will be severe.

5 Financial Myths You Should Ignore

The financial terrain is strewn with robust fables cleverly disguised as facts... The tenacious nature of outdated financial tenets is never questioned.

"Trump Trade 1.0" Is Over - Why It Will Take Some Time To Ship Version 2.0

Do not fear: there will be a “Trump Trade 2.0” at some point this year. Either valuations will retreat to the point where they reflect the reality of a legislatively-driven set of catalysts, or Washington will (in its own time) deliver on a pro-growth agenda as the market treads water. Just remember: Washington doesn’t work in New York minutes.

Will Yesterday's Market Selloff Turn "Emotional": Here Are The Key Indicators RBC Is Looking At

"...yesterday’s ‘vol-trigger’ induced mechanical risk deleveraging, which largely emanated from the accelerating breakdown in USD (and thus ‘reflation’) exposures...The final 30 minutes of the EU and US equity sessions will be a key-indicator in determining if there is ‘follow-through’ in the deleveraging. This is where ‘mechanical’ can transition to ‘emotional’ for fundamental players."

Global Stocks Tumble; Gold, Safe Havens Jump On Doubts Trump Tax Cuts Will Pass

Global stocks tumbled amid growing doubts President Trump will be able to deliver on a promise of tax cuts that has powered stocks markets to record highs pushed shares lower on Wednesday and drove investors to seek safety in government debt, gold and the yen. As DB put it: "Warning! US equities can occasionally go down as well as up a lot."

"Alexa... Should I Buy Stocks?"

Are retail investors buttressing US stocks at current (and elevated) levels? A variety of indicators say "Yes". Our primary concern: fund flows can be quite seasonal, with Q1-to-early Q2 a peak period due to retirement account flows. After mid-April, this diminishes considerably. Then, we will need a reliable stream of positive headlines to keep retail investors in the game.

RBC: "We Are Seeing A Complete Breakdown In The Model"

"...the current (ongoing) breakdown in the USD is representative / driving some short-term and nascent deleveraging of legacy ‘reflation’ trades as per the sudden-death of the central bank "policy divergence" story last week - which had been the primary Dollar bull-case driver over the past year..."

Global Stocks Rise; Euro Surges To 6 Week High After French Presidential Debate

European stocks are modestly in the green as gains in banks and oil companies offset declines in miners. Asian stocks and S&P futures rise with Emerging-market stocks extending their longest winning streak since August on the back of the 5th consecutive daily drop in the USD. The euro rose to the strongest in six weeks after a French presidential debate eased market concerns about a possible Le Pen win.

Deutsche: The Fed Gave Trump Just Enough Rope To Hang Himself With

"The future is bimodal with volatility to be found between politics vs. policy... Either political bottlenecks clear and the stimulus gets approved and goes full force leading to higher growth potential with structural steepening of the curve, or political tensions effectively sabotage either its arrival or content (or both), and the curve initially bear flattens or even twists with rate shorts capitulation accelerating the rally of the back end."

China's Record Stock Market Streak

While the S&P 500’s streak of 109 trading days without a 1%+ decline is impressive, China’s stock market is on an even more impressive one...