Volatility

While we’re not bubbling over with optimism, we believe the New Year will be anything but boring. 

The political press has been abuzz with over the much anticipated signing of the NDAA by Barack Obama on Saturday: this move was not surprising because Obama had already made it clear he would go ahead and enact the law, even though he added some 'stern' language that is supposed to legitimize what some say is a precursor to the establishment of martial law in the US. To wit: "The fact that I support this bill as a whole does not mean I agree with everything in it. In particular, I have signed this bill despite having serious reservations with certain provisions that regulate the detention, interrogation, and prosecution of suspected terrorists." And yet he signed it (full text of Obama's statement on the NDAA, sent while on vacation in Hawaii, can be found here). Perhaps the reason for that unpopular move were some of the more nuanced contents of the Bill, among which is the decision to fully boycott not only Iran, but any bank, including central bank, and other financial institution found to deal with Iran. Which incidentally means most of Russia and China, and probably half of Europe, as all petrodollars generated by the country's petroleum export industry first have to make their way via the international financial community back into the country. The history buffs out there will realize that this form of couched antagonism is nothing short of the US approach to Japan during World War II, which was essentially provoked into attacking Pearl Harbor - read the details of the October 7, 1940 McCollum Memo here, and especially bullet point 10. And unfortunately, it appears that within 24 hours or so, Iran may have already taken the bait. As Reuters and BBC report, Iran has both test-fired a medium-range SAM during the ongoing wargames exercise previously discussed here, as well as made a formal announcement it has made and tested domestically made nuclear fuel rods: precisely the event that the Israel or US-borne Stuxnet was designed to prevent. So as the tennis match of escalation keeps on growing the ball is now once again in the US' court.

Continuing our tradition of listing what according to Zero Hedge readers were the key news events of the year for the third year in a row (2009 and 2010 can be found here and here), we present, as is now customary, the most popular posts of the year as determined by the number of page views, or said otherwise - by the readers themselves. So without further ado, here are this year's top 20.

To suggest financial markets have been volatile as of late is simply a wild understatement.  Although we've certainly seen this type of volatility in terms of percentage moves over short spaces of time in the past, we can't remember when we've last seen this degree of volatility within the context of whipsaw back and forth movement.  Although it may sound hard to believe, if one looked only at closing S&P prices and added up the interim high to low and low to high movements of the SPX since literally May 1 of this year, the S&P has traveled 1,233.83 points!!!!  More than the entire value of the SPX as of the close the day after Thanksgiving.  Now how's that for volatility over a seven month period? Has this played havoc with fragile human emotions?  C'mon.  You may remember that we saw many a headline Street soothsayer turn outright bearish at the end of September, lowering equity allocations as well as equity index targets.  Speaking of defensive portfolio postures and the chance for the S&P to breach 1000 to the downside.  Four short weeks and 186 S&P points to the upside later, giddy strategists and other assorted Street fortune tellers rushed to upgrade equity outlooks literally right on top of the highly anticipated late October Euro bailout plan (which in hindsight has turned out to be neither a bailout nor a plan). We watched in strange amusement as increasing beta exposure recommendations flooded the Street, of course coming after a blistering four week 17% run to the upside in the SPX.  The immediate result of these recommendations of the pros?  A very quick four week 10% loss in the S&P, as a proxy for equities broadly.  It’s never easy, is it?

Dramamine market got you down? You are not alone. David Rosenberg explains: "Yesterday's trade was rather telling. The Nasdaq dropped 2% and not only did volume rise but the breadth was awful with losers beating winners by a 5-to-2 margin (9-to-2 on the NYSE). The fact that the Nasdaq sliced below support of 2,600 and dipped below its 50-day moving average for the first time in six weeks is a bit ominous to say the least; while the S&P 500 undercut its lows of the past four weeks (even though it has managed to hold above the 50-day m.a. of 1,205). But between the slide in equities, commodities, oil and gold, coupled with the rally in Treasuries, yesterday had a certain eerie 2008 feel to it. And did you see the huge 70 point rally in the Dow just in the last couple of minutes? The volatility is incredible. Look at the charts below — they look the same, but one is the Dow's closing level each day this year and the other is the minute to minute ticker on any random session (we chose October 7th out of the hat). The new normal is seeing a year's worth of volatility bunched into 6 ½ hours!"

As usual, nothing but pure concentrated essence from the Fermentation Supercommittee Chairman

Market observers have long noted that increasing volatility presages market crashes. If you glance at a chart of September-October 1929, just before the crash that started the Great Depression, you will note the same sort of manic swings of euphoria and fear that have characterized the U.S. stock market over the past few months. Not only are the swings increasing in amplitude, the time between each move up or down is decreasing. Think of a series of wind storms that grow increasingly more violent even as the time between storms diminishes.

Just when we thought the most ridiculous thing one could expect from the market was another "all shall be well" rumor from Merkozy (with details pending of course), and the algos naturally falling for it in what is set to be a record low volume session, here comes Italy and shows just how horribly wrong we were. From Bloomberg: "Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's Undersecretary Carlo Giovanardi said the government will study if it's feasible to conduct drug tests on stock-exchange traders, with the help of the Milan Bourse and the country's market regulator. Giovanardi, who is in charge of family policy and drug prevention, said that the abuse of drugs including cocaine might explain part of recent stock volatility." And there you have it: cut out the Cocaine abuse by traders and all shall be well in the stock market, and retail will be delighted to flood right back in and throw what little money it has left into the grand global ponzi. We are not quite sure what binary stimulant will be used to explain the HFT-driven volatility - after all, and especially on days like today, about 80% of market volume is purely robotic, but we are confident Carlo will figure something out. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how you deflect attention from market volatility as a byproduct of being a hooker-addicted pederast who blew up a country's economy.

From the mind that brought you the Great Vega Short comes the next masterpiece on liquidity, volatility, contagion and everything else. "Volatility is change and the world is changing. The truth is that Greece will default. The truth is that if our leaders continue to deny our problems history tells us the US will eventually default. These shocking events will hurt many people, markets will collapse, life savings will be lost, there will be violence, upheaval, and massive political change but you know what? The world will not end. When it is all said and done people will work, they will spend time with their children, they will cry, laugh, and love... life will go on. We will find a way to prosper if we relentlessly search for nothing but the truth, otherwise the truth will find us through volatility."

Simply Must Read report on Volatility.

Looking purely at the Vix one could say it is moving down as fear comes out of the market. Equities are moving higher, Vix moving lower, all is coming back to normal. But if you look behind the Vix it is signaling a completely different picture. What I see is something pulling back before a final assault and highly probable defeat of the 48.00 line in the sand. I see the Vix moving up to the 60 range in a matter of days. Perhaps that will lead to the final push lower in equities before some form of a tradable bottom is put in. Perhaps it is already in but judging by the divergence between volatility and the SPX I highly doubt it. There are three charts I want to share with you below, all of which have commentary on them so please click and read what is written. As a refresher below are the various terms used on the charts.

Of course freedom - as envisioned by the Founding Fathers - and free markets would go a long way towards allowing normal volatility, and thus preventing Black Swan collapses ... but the Chairistan and Thought Police can't have that, now can they?

Time to sell some vol? (for the brave ones)

Yo, It's rough out there...