Volatility

Now that sovereign CDS traders are about to reprise the role of Jason Bourne, and be hunted by international intelligence agencies just because under the not so wise advice of their prime brokers and preferred CDS salespeople, they dared to buy a minimum amount of $5 million in 5 year CDS of [Spain|Portugal|Greece], it is worthwhile to expose this sovereign CDS "thingy" once and for all. The following BofA research report will introduce not only the basics, but get into some of the more arcane concepts for those who feel that the need to roundhouse Spanish intelligence officers is about to reach boiling point (call it 30-bp spread induced synesthesia).

On a quiet day like today, everyone is screaming and complaining about a collapsing VIX and lack of volatility. However, look beneath the surface and you will find many battles being waged between Goldman Sachs and their biggest clients who have outsized positions in specific stocks. With insane volatility.

NYSE invokes Rule 48, last used the day Jamie Dimon acquired Bear Stearns for pocket change. Wishes everyone good luck in case the 33 Liberty Street trading desk is unable to hold the market together.

...Alas does not exist. Which begs the question how have iShares and Direxion not made a quintuple levered, dollar vol tracking index yet? Aside from another class action lawsuit in the making, it would provide the heatmappers with a whole new level of adrenaline now that habituation levels have set in with FAZ and BGZ.

Despite VIX on a steady decrease since late 2008, the market has seen a strong upsurge in rates vol over the summer.

The VIX is hell bent on demonstrating it can go back to under 10 even as bond vol keeps on calling its bluff. However, someone keeps selling vol in wholesale amounts and reraising all in (the 5th round has been, of course, with taxpayer money) on stable market bets despite all fundamental signs to the opposite.

The VIX - VXV relationship has dropped to a 2009 low, implying the 3M forward vol is abnormally high (projected volatility) relative to 1M (VIX), and extreme lows coincide with index turning points.

The VIX - VXV relationship has dropped to a 2009 low, implying the 3M forward vol is abnormally high (projected volatility) relative to 1M (VIX), and extreme lows coincide with index turning points.

Ever since the 30 year auction closed earlier, the market has been acting about as rationally as the Stalingrad Bourse back in 1939. Nowhere can this be seen better than the volatility in the 15 Year mortgage. Vol has moved from stocks, to CDS, to treasuries and is now roosting in mortgages. Rinse. Repeat?

Ever since the 30 year auction closed earlier, the market has been acting about as rationally as the Stalingrad Bourse back in 1939. Nowhere can this be seen better than the volatility in the 15 Year mortgage. Vol has moved from stocks, to CDS, to treasuries and is now roosting in mortgages. Rinse. Repeat?

Over the past few months, we've been seeing decreased volatility in USD and JPY despite a slew of body blows coming out on the news calendar. From broad based indicators (ups and downs of second derivs of major demand indicators) to specific items that do not seem restricted to the "unlikely to repeat" pile going forward (anything FOMC related) we have to wonder if the pressure is building.

Over the past few months, we've been seeing decreased volatility in USD and JPY despite a slew of body blows coming out on the news calendar. From broad based indicators (ups and downs of second derivs of major demand indicators) to specific items that do not seem restricted to the "unlikely to repeat" pile going forward (anything FOMC related) we have to wonder if the pressure is building.