Volatility

Sprott Money's picture

Gold & Silver Prices Will Surge On Fundamentals Not Technical Analysis





I would imagine any ancient Roman wise enough to make this same prediction back before the Empire collapsed as the great city fell from a population of one million down to 12,000, would have sounded like a real KOOK.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

As Wall Street Vultures Circle The Next Junk Bond Fund Casualty, A Familiar Name Emerges





And so Wall Street has set its sights on the next junk bond fund casualty, a name which is well-known to most equity market participants: none other than Waddell and Reed (WDR), the fund which rose to infamy in the aftermath of the May 2010 Flash Crash, after it was initially blamed by the SEC as the culprit behind the Dow's 1000 point crash...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Hedge Fund AUM Falls By Most Since Crisis As Desperate Managers Cut Fees To Keep Clients





“If you’re pushing for lower management fees to save minimal basis points on a fund where you are unhappy with performance, as a fiduciary, you have to decide whether you want to keep that fund at all.”

 
EconMatters's picture

The Natural Gas Market Play





 I am sure corporations, wildcatters and trading firms are all making business decisions based upon these low natural gas prices, and they are not from the bullish side of the equation.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Market Has Spoken: The Fed Made A Policy Mistake And "Quantitative Failure" Looms - What Comes Next





"Since the risk of Quantitative Failure brings with it the risk of more extreme policies/politics in 2016, the natural hedges are gold & volatility. Gold in particular will be interesting to watch in coming months. The Fed’s determination to raise rates means gold prices should fall. If in contrast gold rises with Fed hikes that’s a clear sign of a “policy mistake” and investors anticipating the need for more inflationary policies next year."

 
GoldCore's picture

5 Key Charts Show Rising Interest Rates Good For Gold Bullion





In the short term, increases in interest rates can be negative for gold. But, in the medium to long term rising interest rates are positive for gold as they were in the 1970s and the 2003 to 2006 period.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Weekend Reading: All About Janet





"In a worst case scenario, the real economy effects of the oil sector and the earnings slowdown hit the frothy commercial real estate and REIT sector, which in turn begin the widening of the contagion begun by energy high yield. Combine this with the sudden stop to lower quality energy credits I believe is inevitable and you likely have stall speed – or even recession. And that’s where subprime auto ABS, student loan securitization and US munis come into the picture for the US domestic economy. Those markets get hit in recession."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Slide As Quad-Witching Has A Violently Volatile Start After Massive BOJ FX Headfake; Oil Tumbles





Following the latest BOJ statement, the market found itself wrongfooted assuming the BOJ was actually launching another episode of easing, sending the USDJPY soaring, until suddenly the realization swept the market that not only was the incremental action not really material, but even Kuroda spoke shortly after the announcement, confirming that "today's decision wasn't additional easing." The result was one of the biggest FX headfakes in recent days, perhaps on par with that from December 4 when EUR shorts were crushed, as the biggest carry pair first soared then tumbled and since the Yen correlation drives so many risk assets, also pulled down not only Japanese stocks but US equity futures.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How The Fed Just Launched The Next Bear Market: BofA's Unexpected Conclusion In 8 Charts





"Rising rates and falling profits are not a good combination for asset prices, so we will turn sellers of risk in early 2016."

 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Fed Hike Will Unleash A Monster Dollar Rally Goldman Predicts; Merrill Disagrees





The "long dollar" trade may be the most crowded ever but that doesn't mean there aren't disagreements where the greenback goes from here, especially after the Fed's historic first rate hike.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Presenting Saxo Bank's 10 "Outrageous Predictions" For 2016





"The irony in this year’s batch of outrageous predictions is that some of them are “outrageous” merely because they run counter to overwhelming market consensus. In fact, many would not look particularly outrageous at all in more “normal” times – if there even is such a thing!"

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How Traders Are Preparing For The Rate Hike: "It's A Good Time To Beat The Crap Out Of A Punchbag"





Summing up the anxiety ahead of today's Fed decision - which talking heads just this morning explained is "priced in" and is a "non-event... been so telegraphed" - market professionals believe "it seems a good time just to go and beat the crap out of a punchbag." As Bloomberg reports, real traders say they "just don't want to do any damage today," as they trade around the events, "I think we're going to see a lot of volatility," and Treasury risk is already spiking to 5-month highs.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

This Is How The Algos Trade The Fed Announcement





With Treasury volatility spiking in "panic" mode but equity volatility in "everything will be fine" mode, there is plenty of room for the algos to go wild around this afternoon's decision. As Nanex shows, the last few years has seen lower and lower liquidity on Fed days as the pattern of liquidity collapse intraday provides just the ammunition for the instant buying-panic in the first 2 minutes after the decision.

 
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